NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds Update: Week 10

Outside of the yearly MVP award, there are few season awards races more exciting to follow than the Offensive Player of the Year award. While the MVP often goes to the quarterback on the team that won the most games, the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award recognizes outstanding accomplishments regardless of position. It's a great way to celebrate offensive greatness without fully tying that greatness to a team's win/loss record at the end of the year.

This year's race is off to a fiery start with multiple players pacing to match or even break NFL records. We have a clear top three separating themselves from the pack, but the race could still be anyone's for the taking.

Let's take a look at some of the top Offensive Player of the Year award betting odds from the FanDuel Sportsbook and dig into the resumes of this year's frontrunners:

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (+140)

Leading the pack, we have Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill, who is pacing to break Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yards record (1,964 yards) and become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. No big deal. If Hill achieves either of those feats, he'll be a virtual lock for the award, so it's no surprise that his +140 OPOY odds are the best in the league.

This is the second season in a row where Hill has paced to become the receiving yards record holder. In 2022, he and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa synced up for 1,104 after their first nine games together. Tagovailoa's injuries eventually slowed down their torrid first-half pace, but the tandem has been close to unstoppable again in 2023. We should expect Hill to win the award if things continue trending as well as they have for him through his first season and a half in Miami.

Apart from health, there's one other potential obstacle Hill will have to dodge on his way an OPOY win -- the Dolphins' schedule. The 'Phins have faced a relatively soft schedule in the first half, but their high-octane offense has looked a little lacking when stacked up against strong defenses (like in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

They have multiple matchups with elite defenses in store for them down the stretch, including two games against the New York Jets' fifth-ranked passing defense (according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics) and dates with the Baltimore Ravens' and Dallas Cowboys' second- and sixth-ranked defenses.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+160)

If Hill and the Dolphins falter even a little bit, Christian McCaffrey is poised the swoop in and steal the OPOY award from under their noses.

The San Francisco 49ers running back is leading the league in rushing yards (652) and touchdowns from scrimmage (13) while ranking second and first in receptions and receiving yards, respectively, at his position. He has been an offensive engine since teaming up with the 49ers at last year's trade deadline, producing some of the most consistently elite numbers we've seen in quite some time.

Earlier this season, McCaffrey became the record-holder for most consecutive games with a touchdown, becoming the first player in NFL history to achieve that feat in 17 straight contests. Each week that he extends his record will continue to strengthen his OPOY case and further extend the lead he and Hill have over the rest of their competition for the award.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (+600)

Trailing the two frontrunners by a fairly wide odds margin, we have Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown, whose +600 odds rank third among OPOY-eligible players.

Brown is putting together another impressive season in Philadelphia, garnering a massive share of the team's passing offense despite strong competition from teammates like DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

While Brown's odds trail those of Hill and McCaffrey, his resume isn't too dissimilar to theirs. On the year, he has compiled 67 catches for 1,005 yards and 6 touchdowns -- just 2 fewer catches, 2 fewer touchdowns, and 71 fewer receiving yards than Hill has put up. His production is closer to Hill's than the third-most productive receiver in the league -- Stefon Diggs -- is to Brown's.

There's a hypothetical case to be made that if Hill weren't producing slightly better numbers across the board from him, Brown would be the actual frontrunner for the OPOY award right now, even over McCaffrey.

Brown is almost keeping pace with Hill, making him a possible arbitrage bet on the Dolphins star. Both receivers are producing at elite, prolific levels that can be borderline impossible to sustain for a full season.

If Hill's production tapers off again -- like it did a season ago -- but Brown's doesn't, we could see the gap between their odds change drastically after even just one week of action.

One Longshot for the Road

From the chart above, you'll see that the rest of the "frontrunners" group is comprised of wide receivers whose production doesn't quite stack up against either Tyreek Hill's or A.J. Brown's. They're all incredibly talented players and can't be fully counted out -- whose to say Ja'Marr Chase can't post back-to-back 200-yard games -- but they would need a lot of things to break their ways to topple more productive players at the position.

Similarly, there aren't many running backs whose 2023 seasons can stack up favorably when compared to McCaffrey's. Any competitor would have to go on a serious heater in the back half of the year to contest McCaffrey's top claim at the position. Backs like Travis Etienne (+5000) and Breece Hall (+11000) are certainly capable of accomplishing that feat, but it's hard to want to bank on that happening.

So let's look outside those positions, and take a look at quarterback.

There's one quarterback in particular who stands out as a potential OPOY candidate -- Lamar Jackson (+4000). Jackson's Baltimore Ravens have dealt with a depressing number of injuries on the offensive side of the ball yet again this year, but even with backup pass-catchers and running backs, the former MVP has been piecing together some impressive offensive output.

Each of the four offenses that have out-scored the Ravens' 239 points this season have similar features -- their teams have top-notch quarterback play as well as at least one elite wide receiver. The same cannot be said for Jackson, whose top receiver this year has been diminutive first-round pick Zay Flowers while teammates Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham, and Rashod Bateman have underachieved and dealt with injuries.

Jackson has been almost solely responsible for Baltimore's offensive output this year, which can't be overlooked. The team is winning games -- their 7-2 record is tied for the best in the AFC -- and putting up good overall offensive numbers. They simply wouldn't be where they are without Jackson posting the sixth-best passer rating (100.8) while rushing for 440 yards and 5 touchdowns on 84 carries.

If you're looking for a longshot OPOY bet, Jackson's case is a potentially strong one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.