NFL No. 1 Seed Odds: Can Anyone Break Into the AFC's Big Three?
The NFL season is right around the corner, and FanDuel Sportsbook has a plethora of NFL Futures for fans to get their hands on.
All eyes are on the Super Bowl odds odds, but serious value can be had on No. 1 seed odds.
Last season, FanDuel Sportsbook's preseason odds had Eagles at +1000 and the Chiefs at +650 to be the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. You won't find the Chiefs that high this season, but who else in the AFC has a shot to be the No. 1 seed for the playoffs in 2023-24?
Team | Odds | 2022 Standing |
---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +320 | 1st |
Cincinnati Bengals | +500 | 3rd |
Buffalo Bills | +550 | 2nd |
Baltimore Ravens | +850 | 5th |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +1000 | 6th |
Miami Dolphins | +1200 | 7th |
New York Jets | +1400 | 10th |
Cleveland Browns | +1600 | 12th |
Los Angeles Chargers | +1800 | 4th |
Pittsburgh Steelers | +2000 | 8th |
Tennessee Titans | +3000 | 11th |
Denver Broncos | +3000 | 14th |
New England Patriots | +5000 | 9th |
Las Vegas Raiders | +5500 | 13th |
Indianapolis Colts | +7000 | 15th |
Houston Texans | +10000 | 16th |
The Big Three
Only three teams have made the AFC playoffs in each of the last two seasons: the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills. Naturally, these three leaders are the heavy favorites to be the AFC No. 1 seed.
Kansas City Chiefs (+320)
The defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs have the shortest odds in either conference of being the No. 1 seed come playoff time. With their win total set at 11.5, the Chiefs are tied with the Bengals for the highest win total in the AFC. Additionally, Kansas City holds the shortest odds to win the AFC as well as to win the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are a regular-season juggernaut, plain and simple. Here's how Kansas City's fared in the regular season since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018:
- 2018: 12-4 (No. 1 seed)
- 2019: 12-4 (No. 2 seed)
- 2020: 14-2 (No. 1 seed)
- 2021: 12-5 (No. 2 seed)
- 2022: 14-3 (No. 1 seed)
At +320, the Chiefs' implied odds to be the No. 1 seed are about 24%. Considering they've done in 60% of the last five seasons, that looks like an incredible value.
numberFire projects the Chiefs to win 11.0 games this season -- the most in the AFC. Among all teams, Kansas City also has the best chance to win both their division (57.3%) and the Super Bowl (11.4%), per numberFire. That said, the Chiefs do have the fifth-hardest schedule going by 2023 win totals.
Cincinnati Bengals (+500)
Cincinnati finished two wins shy of the No. 1 seed last season -- although, a canceled game with Buffalo complicated the standings. After starting 4-4, the Bengals rattled off eight consecutive wins to close out the regular season and finished as the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
At +500, Cincinnati has about a 17% implied chance to be the No. 1 seed. numberFire projections have the Bengals winning 10.4 games and list them third in the AFC. Those same projections give Cincy a 66.0% chance to make the playoffs, a 38% chance to win the AFC North, and a 6.3% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
With their win total set at 11.5, the Bengals are tied with the Chiefs for the highest win total in the AFC. Of the three favorites to be the No. 1 seed, the Bengals have by far the easiest schedule -- ranking 16th-most difficult, per 2023 win totals.
Buffalo Bills (+550)
Buffalo just missed out on securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season. They finished with the same number of losses as the first-place Chiefs but had a lower winning percentage due to their matchup with the Bengals being canceled. Despite that, Buffalo has a lower win total than both KC and Cincy -- set at 10.5 wins.
The Bills have been flirting with the No. 1 seed for the past three years, finishing second in 2020, third in 2021, and second again in 2022. Their +550 odds in 2023 imply about a 15% chance of getting the top seed this season.
numberFire projects Buffalo to finish with 10.5 wins and in second place in the AFC. Those same projections give them a 68.1% of making the playoffs, a 44.1% chance of winning the AFC East, and an 8.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
However, Buffalo may face an uphill battle in securing the No. 1 seed because of how tough the AFC East could be. The Bills' schedule ranks as the fourth-toughest by 2023 win totals
Next In Line
After the top three, there's a second tier of contenders with odds inside +1200 to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. All three of the Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins made the playoffs in 2022 -- although, only the Ravens had sniffed the postseason in the previous four seasons.
Baltimore Ravens (+850)
Baltimore is the only team outside the top three that has odds inside +1000. The Ravens finished 10-7 with the fourth-best record in the AFC last season. There's certainly precedent for the Ravens to snag the No. 1 seed in the AFC after they won it by two games back in 2019. Since then, however, they haven't finished higher than fourth.
numberFire projects the Ravens for 9.9 wins -- a touch shy of their listed win total of 10.5. Those same projections give Baltimore a 59.5% chance of making the postseason, a 30.4% chance of winning the AFC North, and a 4.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Their +850 odds equate to 10.5% implied odds to secure the No. 1 seed. Baltimore should benefit from a relatively light schedule. According to the 2023 win totals, the Ravens have the 15th-easiest schedule next season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1000)
The Jaguars won the AFC South last season but still managed just nine wins. Still, they came out on top in six of seven games to close out the regular season and will likely be a trendy sleeper team thanks to their weak division.
That said, their fourth-place finish in the AFC last year was their best since 2017, when they finished third. Jacksonville hasn't finished as the AFC's top seed since 1999.
numberFire projections have the Jaguars finishing with 9.3 wins next season. That falls right in line with FanDuel Sportsbook's 9.5-game win total. numberFire also gives them a 56.6% chance of making the playoffs, 45.9% odds to win the AFC South, and a 3.2% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville has the 10th-easiest schedule in the league by 2023 win totals. Their +1000 line equates to roughly a 9% chance to be the No. 1 seed. It's worth keeping in mind that the Eagles had the same odds to be the NFC's No. 1 seed prior to the start of last season.
Miami Dolphins (+1200)
Miami looked like a serious candidate to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season -- starting 3-0 before an injury to Tua Tagovailoa cost them three straight games. They managed to rattle off five consecutive wins upon his return but lost five of their last six games.
Miami with a healthy Tua looked like one of the best teams in the league, and they gave Buffalo a fight in the Wild Card round. Thus, they'll likely be a trendy sleeper pick headed into 2023-24 despite not finishing atop the AFC since 1984.
numberFire projections have the Dolphins notching 8.4 wins next season -- a number lower than their 9.5-game win total on FanDuel Sportsbook. Those same projections give Miami a 38.5% chance to make the playoffs, a 16.8% chance to win the AFC East, and a 2.1% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Those unfavorable numbers can in part be attributed to their brutal schedule. According to 2023 win totals, Miami has the second-toughest schedule in the league.
Dark Horses
After the top six, things start to get weird. The New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers all have huge aspirations -- and even bigger question marks. Of those group, only the Chargers made the playoffs last season.
New York Jets (+1400)
New York skyrocketed up the odds board with the addition of Aaron Rodgers. The Jets were solid even without competent quarterback play last season -- starting 7-4 before dropping six consecutive games to close out the year.
With a good, young group of skill-position players on offense and an elite defense, the Jets have a wide range of outcomes in 2023.
numberFire projects 9.5 wins for New York in 2023 -- right in line with FanDuel Sportsbook's 9.5-game win total. numberFire gives them a 54.3% chance to make the playoffs, a 28.4% chance to win the AFC East, and a 5.2% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Like their AFC East counterparts, New York faces an uphill battle with their schedule. The Jets have the seventh-most difficult schedule going by 2023 win totals.
Cleveland Browns (+1600)
Cleveland is another team that could easily put everything together. Despite playing without their starting quarterback for the majority of the season, the Browns finished 7-10. They went just 2-6 in one-score games and should, in theory, be healthier in 2023.
numberFire projects Cleveland to win 8.8 games this season -- a mark just shy of their 9.5-game win total on FanDuel Sportsbook. Those same projections give the Browns a 44.6% chance to make the playoffs, an 18.3% chance to win the AFC North, and a 2.3% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Cleveland should benefit from a (relatively) light schedule. Using 2023 win totals, the Browns have the 12th-easiest schedule in the league. Among the top nine AFC teams in terms of odds to be the No. 1 seed, they have the second-easiest slate.
Los Angeles Chargers (+1800)
The Chargers round out the nine AFC teams with odds inside +2000 to be the No. 1 seed. LA being this low may come as a surprise to some after they finished with the fourth-best record in the conference last season. However, the Chargers face arguably the biggest obstacle of any other team on the list: they share a division with the Chiefs.
Because of that, the Chargers were relegated to the first Wild Card spot last season -- where they promptly blew a 27-point first-half lead to the Jaguars. Still, their talented roster and elite young quarterback make them a serious dark horse to take off in 2023.
numberFire projects 8.3 wins for the Chargers this season. That's just shy of their 9.5-game win total on FanDuel Sportsbook. Those projections also give them a 38.1% chance to make the playoffs, a 17.2% chance to win the AFC West, and a 2.0% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
The Chargers have the sixth-most difficult schedule in the league by 2023 win totals.
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