NFL MVP Odds Update: Primetime Win Puts Jalen Hurts Back on Top

Undoubtedly, as we reach the Week 12 tentpole in the NFL, the intensity around the league has dialed up.

Maybe it's the fact that we just had a Super Bowl LVII rematch on Monday Night Football, or perhaps it's due to the postseason picture emerging more clearly, but every week from here on out will be paramount -- especially for the AP MVP race.

The aforementioned MNF bid between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs was more of a chess match than a point palooza. Still, Philly signal-caller Jalen Hurts did well to execute in the clutch, rushing in two scores with his legs. As such, Hurts now leads the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Overall, Week 11 provided plenty of quality play to unpack. Let's dig into the latest league MVP lines with an eye on jumps and drops.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

*Denotes 2022-23 AP NFL MVP

Notable Jumps

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +250

As just alluded to, Hurts and the Eagles are flying high after getting a small piece of revenge in Kansas City on Monday. With that, Philly holds on to the NFL's best record (9-1) through 11 weeks of action. Is Hurts geared to take them to the title?

Notably, Hurts was last season's MVP runner-up. In 2023, he already has more interceptions (9) than he did in all of 2022 (6), but he has done well to improve his completion clip to a career-best 68.5%. On the ground, Hurts has scored in all but three games so far, totaling nine rushing touchdowns. Yes, the "Brotherly Shove" is still churning strong -- Kansas City's stout defense could not stop it, either.

The Birds have won their past three contests by just a single score, and the path certainly does not get any smoother going forward. In order, Hurts will next face formidable defenses in the Buffalo Bills (17.3 PPG allowed), San Francisco 49ers (14 INT), Dallas Cowboys (4 INT TD) and Seattle Seahawks (21.8 PPG allowed).

Being the quarterback of the league's best team will essentially keep Hurts' name in the MVP conversation for the remainder of the regular season. Adding in the fact that Hurts scores so often with his legs while still frequently finding A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on passing touchdowns, the signal-caller in Philly is accurately labeled at FanDuel Sportsbook with +250 odds right now.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1500

If he didn't already know, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is learning how quickly the peaks and valleys come at you in this league. As one of the best "Cinderella stories" of the last few seasons, Purdy had largely played error-free football in every start up until Week 7 of this season. From that point through Week 9, he committed five interceptions in three consecutive losses.

Many experts claimed midnight had finally struck for "Mr. Irrelevant 2022," but Purdy has regained prolific form over the past two weeks. After showing 30-to-1 odds in the MVP market at FanDuel Sportsbook following the home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Purdy is currently yielding +1500 odds.

Crazily enough, the return of Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel from respective injuries has done wonders for Purdy. Since San Francisco's offense returned to full strength after their bye week, the second-year signal-caller has been on fire, showing six touchdowns on 78.4% passing with no turnovers.

Right now, Purdy holds the NFL's top QBR at 77.0. In his most recent outing, he produced the 49ers' first perfect passer rating (148.9) since 1989 (when Steve Young and Joe Montana both accomplished the feat).

With all sorts of dynamic athletes to utilize on San Francisco's roster, Purdy will likely produce a top statistical season -- can he be the first second-year MVP since Lamar Jackson?

Steep Drops

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +460

In the introduction, I referenced Kansas City's recent primetime loss to Philadelphia. In that game, the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes, passed for only 177 yards, including two touchdowns and one interception. However, Mahomes' production has clearly been hampered by frequent drops from his offensive skill group -- the Chiefs currently lead the NFL in that category with 18 drops.

Mahomes is still the most talented player on the field pretty much every week, but he is not leading the league in any significant metric right now. Most impressively, his 19 passing touchdowns land him tied for third. Additionally, his 6.9 yards per attempt in 2023 is a career-low mark, and he has already committed 9 interceptions; 13 picks (2021) is Mahomes' personal worst.

Although KC's offense is not playing their best ball right now, I think any informed fan or bettor knows not to count out Mahomes and the reigning champion Chiefs. Still, "Showtime" has been knocked out of the MVP favorite position at FanDuel Sportsbook for the first time since before Week 8.

Given Mahomes' +460 odds, maybe now is the time to get back in on KC's quarterback. In the next two weeks, the Chiefs have road matchups with two sub-.500 teams: the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +15000

Yet again, Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers suffered a one-score loss to a team that is inferior from a talent standpoint. Last Sunday, the Bolts narrowly fell at Lambeau Field, losing to the Pack, 23-20. Herbert was not particularly bad, completing 23 of 33 pass attempts with a touchdown, but the Chargers always seem to be missing something.

Regardless of whom the blame is majorly attributed to (head coach Brandon Staley claims it is not any one unit), Herbert's MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have plummeted with the team at 4-6. Just last week, the Oregon alum was still in the conversation at +7500. Fast-forward to now, and Herbert is tagged with 150-to-1 odds.

Individually, Herbert's numbers in 2023 are still very respectable. He shows a 19:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 66.2% of his passes. Like Purdy above, the Chargers' signal-caller is also top three in QBR (71.7). However, it is unlikely Herbert will receive AP MVP consideration if the Chargers are too far removed from the AFC playoff picture -- as they currently are.

If the Bolts hope to get back into contention this year, they will need somewhat of a culture change. Sure, Los Angeles could easily be 8-2, but there is obviously something missing from the winning formula. Do they have any chance of figuring that out before this week's game versus the Baltimore Ravens?

Honorable Mention

Trending Up

• Dak Prescott +1500

Falling Down

• Christian McCaffrey +4000

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.