NFL MVP Betting Odds: Can Kenny Pickett Win as an Underdog?

Let’s be honest here: Kenny Pickett did not look like a guy capable of winning an NFL MVP award in his rookie season.

Personally, I generally like my MVP candidates to throw more touchdowns than interceptions; the Pittsburgh Steelers signal-caller threw two more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7) in his debut season.

The FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL MVP betting odds give Pickett +4000 odds to win the award in 2023, making him quite a long shot among starting quarterbacks entering his second season.

So, how exactly can the Pitt alum engineer an MVP-caliber season in his sophomore year?

Pickett Versus the Field

Barring some kind of insane, unexpected breakout from Pickett entering Year 2, we can’t realistically expect him to compete skills-for-skills against talents like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson for the MVP award this season. He doesn’t have the same cannon of an arm that Mahomes and Allen possess and doesn’t have the innate playmaking prowess that quarterbacks like Jackson or even Justin Fields are capable of.

That gap in talent between Pickett and the MVP frontrunners is reflected in the betting odds. Pickett’s odds are way behind those of Mahomes (+700), Allen (+700), and Jackson (+1500). If Pickett wins the MVP award, it likely means he received a lot of help from his teammates.

The backbone of most MVP campaigns is playing for a division-winning team. Over the last 20 seasons, all but two MVP winners played on teams that won their division or tied for first place. And only three of those MVP winners played on teams that won fewer than 12 games. If Pickett stands a chance of winning an MVP award in 2023, it has to start with getting the Steelers to the top of the AFC North.

That’s going to be easier said than done. The Steelers have +500 odds to win the AFC North in the FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL Division betting odds market, which ranks last of the four teams in that division.

Still, even their fourth-place +500 odds aren’t too far out and indicate that they have a better chance of winning their division as a theoretical fourth-seeded team than other similarly positioned squads across the league. The AFC North projects to be one of the most hotly-contested divisions in the NFL this year.

Playing in such a close division could benefit Pickett’s MVP bid, especially considering that his Steelers will be competing against two of the top MVP contenders in Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson (not to mention Deshaun Watson). Each win the Steelers can pull over on Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals, Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, or Watson’s Cleveland Browns will bolster Pickett’s case for an MVP bid two-fold. The Steelers' wins make Pickett look good, while the losses for the other three teams make some of his toughest competition for the award look worse.

The Year-Two Leap

Very few players enter the NFL as fully-formed professionals. Players often take massive leaps in between their first and second seasons and even continue to grow from there.

It makes a lot of sense when you think about it. For most of these players’ lives, football has been closer to an after-school activity than to a full-time job. That is by no means a slight on their work ethics or on how seriously they take the sport before the NFL – it’s just a logistical assessment. Even at the collegiate level, they’re still attending classes, studying for tests, and leading student lives.

That changes once players reach the NFL because football becomes their full-time job. That change in scenery helps NFL players reach their full potential.

If Pickett is going to stand a chance of winning an MVP award, we will need to see him improve upon his lackluster rookie season performance. As a rookie, Pickett completed 63% of his passes for 2,404 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. His 1.8% touchdown rate ranked 33rd in the NFL, a league with only 32 starting quarterbacks at any given time. That touchdown rate was especially concerning given his track record from the collegiate level – he did not eclipse 13 passing touchdowns until his fifth season at Pitt, during which he had the privilege of throwing to Biletnikoff Award winner and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison.

Some of his other metrics looked a bit better than his concerning touchdown rate, though. He ranked close to league average in interception rate (2.3%) and sack rate (6.5%) as a rookie, demonstrating a knack for avoiding drive-ending plays. Even minimal growth in those two categories will help Pickett become a better quarterback, and the team’s good offensive line – bolstered by 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones – should help keep the second-year starter upright for most of the season.

Among quarterbacks drafted since 2016 who attempted at least 150 passes as a rookie (roughly six-to-eight games), their touchdown rates jumped by an average of 1.3 percentage points between their first and second seasons. Note that this isn’t a perfect representation of the jump quarterbacks take in their second years, as the sample analyzed is affected by a survivorship bias – the successful quarterbacks make up a more significant percentage of the data points.

In a vacuum, even a one-percentage-point leap would be significant for Pickett in his second season. But there’s a lot of room for growth for him in Year 2 considering how low his touchdown rate was in Year 1. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and even teammate Mitchell Trubisky take massive leaps in touchdown rate in their second seasons, meaning there’s hope yet for Pickett. If those guys could go from bottom-of-the-league rates as rookies to good rates as sophomores, so can he.

The Shape of the Steelers’ Offense

Throwing more touchdowns is definitely a good thing, and it seems probable that Pickett will get a little bit better at it in his second season. But how exactly will that come about?

For starters, it would be pretty cool if wide receiver Diontae Johnson caught more than zero touchdowns this year. No player in the league had fewer touchdown receptions on as many receptions as Johnson’s zero on 86 catches last year. The next-closest player – Saquon Barkley, a running back – caught 57 passes without notching a receiving score. Johnson scored five, seven, and eight touchdowns in each of his first three seasons, so it stands to reason that his touchdown numbers should regress in a positive direction in 2023.

Another thing that could certainly improve Pickett’s touchdown numbers would be a better red zone passing performance. Pickett and Trubisky made a combined 57 passing attempts in the red zone in 2022, which was the 11th-most in the league. But the nine touchdowns they threw in the red zone ranked 24th among qualifying quarterbacks. That’s a pretty big disparity between red zone opportunities and red zone conversions, meaning there’s significant room for growth in that area of the field alone.

The Steelers may have tipped their hand about their plans in the red zone for the upcoming season during the 2023 draft. In addition to taking an offensive lineman with their first-round selection, the team also used a third-round pick on Georgia tight end Darnell Washington.

Washington frequently leveraged his massive 6’7”, 264-pound frame as a blocker for the Bulldogs during his three seasons with the team, but that same frame makes him a massive target in the end zone. His elite performance at the NFL Combine indicated that Washington has more to offer as a receiver than he put on tape at Georgia, as well.

Basic regression from Johnson and Washington’s unique skill set could be enough to push Pickett’s touchdown rate up to a respectable level, but the Steelers will also look for a second-year leap from wide receiver George Pickens. Pickens was inconsistent during his NFL debut – he generated about as much separation on his targets as 34-year-old A.J. Green – but he did lead the team with four touchdown catches as a rookie. He showcased a nose for the end zone during his first two seasons at Georgia, as well, and could be in line for a strong season in the red zone in 2023.

Putting It All Together

Unlike other MVP frontrunners, Pickett needs to take a significant step forward in his second season to garner any recognition as a legitimate candidate for the award.

With +4000 NFL MVP odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook, he’s a pretty clear underdog even compared to the other quarterbacks in his own division. Burrow (+700), Jackson (+1500), and Watson (+2500) all have much stronger resumes and cases as we enter the season.

Still, Mike Tomlin’s top-tier track record gives the Steelers – and by extension Pickett – an underrated floor for the 2023 season. If Pickett does make that Year 2 leap we’ve seen from quarterbacks like Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, and others, and if things break right for the Steelers, they could find themselves on top of the division and in the playoffs by the end of the year.

With +500 odds to win the AFC North, the Steelers are far from longshots to take the division title, and doing so would be the key to turning Pickett into an MVP contender.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.