NFL MVP Betting: Can Deshaun Watson Return to an Elite Level?

The NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook give Cleveland Browns' quarterback, Deshaun Watson +2500 odds to win the AP NFL MVP award for the 2023 NFL season. Those odds tie him with Detroit Lions quarterback, Jared Goff for the 12th-strongest odds in the league to take home the award at the end of the season.

Just a few seasons ago, we would have had a tough time deciding which part of that last sentence was weirder – that Watson had only the 12th-best odds to win the MVP award, or that he had the same odds as Jared Goff to win the award.

But it’s been a long time since we’ve seen Deshaun Watson play good football.

Watson sat out for the entirety of the 2021 season for the Houston Texans in an apparent team-sanctioned hold-out. Frustrated with the way the franchise managed its team, he was allowed to sit out of their games that year without incurring any fines as they reportedly sought to find a solution to his complaints.

The team did not seem willing to seek out a trade partner until news broke of the accusations against their franchise quarterback – over 20 massage therapy professionals accused Watson of behavior including sexual harassment, sexual assault, and assault. At that point, the Cleveland Browns decided to trade for a quarterback while the courts processed his cases.

The NFL suspended Watson for the first 11 games of the 2022 season as a result of his actions, leading the Browns to start the season with Jacoby Brissett as their top quarterback. When Watson did return to the field for the first time in almost two years, it wasn’t pretty.

Looking at the stat sheet, 2022 was the worst Watson has ever looked on a football field. His 4.1% touchdown rate was the worst of his career, his 2.9% interception rate was his second-worst, he averaged an awful 183.7 passing yards per game, took sacks at a whopping 10.5% rate, and finished his six games with a near-league-worst 4.79 adjusted net passing yards per attempt.

Rust or not, Watson looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league during his six games in 2022. He’ll need to seriously improve on his performance to even have a job in 2024, let alone win an MVP award. But the thing with Watson is that we’ve seen him play at an MVP level before.

A Little History

Watson was on an elite trajectory in the first few seasons of his career. His rookie season was brief due to a season-ending knee injury, but he was throwing touchdowns at an insane rate from the get-go. While the 9.6% touchdown rate he reached that year regressed in the following seasons, he still maintained elite rates for an NFL passer.

Until this past season, Watson had never thrown touchdowns at worse than a 5.1% clip. For reference, that 5.1% rate – his previous worst rate – would have ranked as a top 10 mark in the 2022 NFL season. His ability to create touchdowns helped the Texans break into double-digit win territory after a few seasons capping out at nine wins – the 2018 and 2019 Texans finished with a combined 21-10 record in Watson’s second and third seasons.

Watson’s final season with the Texans was arguably his best season in the pros. Despite the team’s embarrassing 4-12 record that year Watson’s 4,825 passing yards led the league in 2020. He became the first passer since the turn of the century to lead the league in passing yards while playing on a team that lost at least 12 games. The Texans lost those games in spite of Watson, who threw 33 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions while adding 444 yards and 3 more touchdowns via his rushing abilities.

The team’s complete lack of infrastructure around Watson in that season was the initial cause for his 2021 hold-out, and that 2020 season was the last time we witnessed Watson playing at a reasonable level.

New Opportunities in Browns-Town

The Browns will need Watson to recapture that 2020 form if they want him to live up to the lucrative draft capital they used to acquire him – as well as the market-breaking fully-guaranteed contract they signed him to. The Browns sent the Texans their next three first-round draft picks, a 2023 third-round pick, and two additional fourth-round picks in the trade before signing him to his current five-year, $230 million contract. It’s fair to say that the Browns expected to get 2020 Watson for those prices – not the quarterback that started the final six games of the 2022 season.

We can probably chalk a fair amount of Watson’s struggles last season up to rust. He hadn’t actually practiced being a quarterback since that 2020 season and was unable to practice with the Browns last year while he served out his 11-game suspension. Given those circumstances, the expectations for his performance last year were probably set too high.

Unlike last year, though, Watson has been able to partake in Cleveland’s offseason program so far in 2023. In addition to working off that aforementioned rust, he’ll finally have time to develop chemistry with the Browns’ talented skill position players.

Those skill position players are certainly worth mentioning. The Browns acquired veteran receiver Amari Cooper on the cheap from the Dallas Cowboys entering the 2022 season, a move that resulted in Cooper catching 78 passes for 1,160 yards and a career-high 9 touchdowns. Third-year receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones broke out with a 61/839/3 receiving line as the team’s primary option behind Cooper. And former first-round pick, David Njoku lived up to his past draft capital with the best season of his career, catching 58 passes for 628 yards and 4 scores. The team further bolstered their pass-catcher group this offseason, acquiring former second-round pick Elijah Moore from the New York Jets in exchange for draft picks.

That pass-catcher group of Cooper, Peoples-Jones, Moore, and Njoku is likely the deepest group Watson will have played with so far in his career, but may not even be the most exciting highlight of the Browns’ roster in 2023. Watson’s time in Houston was often marred by subpar offensive line play, which was exacerbated by his own proclivity for taking sacks. The Browns’ offensive line currently ranks second in ProFootballFocus’ preseason rankings, which should lead to Watson having the best protection of his career in 2023.

He’ll also draw benefits from something he never had in Houston – a consistent running game. The Texans were home to just one single 1,000-yard rusher in Watson’s tenure there, with Carlos Hyde just barely eclipsing that mark with 1,070 yards in 2019.

The Browns have boasted one of the most successful running games in the league over the last few seasons. Their offensive line has been a major contributor to that success, but the majority of the credit has to land at the feet of elite running back, Nick Chubb. Chubb is one of the few backs in the league capable of handling massive workloads while maintaining elite efficiency. He has maintained a yards-per-carry average of over 5.0 yards through his first five seasons, while managing almost 20 touches per game.

Chubb is near the top of the league in pretty much every metric that evaluates running back play. Next Gen Stats' Rushing Yard Over Expectation grades how many yards a running back earns beyond what an average back would be expected to gain on any given carry. Chubb’s 1.29 mark ranked second in the entire league behind Khalil Herbert, who handled less than half as many carries as Chubb. He managed that feat while facing loaded boxes on just under 30% of his rushing attempts, too.

His 10.8 attempts per broken tackle ranked seventh in the league in 2022, while his 2.3 yards after contact per carry ranked sixth-best. He broke tackles with the best of them but also kept gaining yards after breaking those tackles.

That love letter to Chubb serves to illustrate how Watson won’t have to put the entire team on his shoulders like he was forced to do with the Texans in previous seasons.

A Brighter Horizon in Cleveland

The Browns are far from the embarrassment that hung around the bottom of the league for most of the 2000s, but they have still only managed one winning season in the last 15 years. The franchise hasn’t won its division since 1989, either. With Watson under center, their fortunes could change in 2023.

One season removed from finishing in fourth place in the AFC North, the NFL Division Odds betting market has the Browns at +390 to win the division in 2023. That gives them the third-best odds to win the division behind the Cincinnati Bengals (+125) and the Baltimore Ravens (+240), but keeps them close to their competition – only the NFC North has closer odds amongst all of its teams for its division title. The Bengals and Ravens each have legitimate cases to win the division in 2023, but the Browns could realistically be right there with both of those teams.

The NFL Win Totals betting market has the team’s total set at 9.5 wins. Only six teams currently have higher totals than the Browns, while their 9.5-win line has them even with teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, and Miami Dolphins. The betting markets seem to think the Browns could win more than a few games this season.

Those wins matter a lot for Watson’s case as an MVP candidate. Winners of the award in recent years have consistently led their teams to division titles while winning no fewer than 11 games – they’ll likely need to win at least 12 games now with the new 17-game schedule, as well.

From a narrative standpoint, guiding a team to its first division win in over 20 years should be a significant feather in the cap for any MVP candidate. Few teams in the NFL have struggled as much for as long as the Cleveland Browns, and pulling them up from the depths would seriously bolster Watson’s bid for the award in 2023.

Conclusion

There’s no sugarcoating how poorly Deshaun Watson played in his limited opportunities in 2022, but the former Houston Texan does have a realistic chance of putting together a successful MVP campaign in 2023. The Browns are set up for better success than his former team ever was, featuring a deep receiver corps, an outstanding offensive line, and arguably the best running back in the game.

They’ll play in one of the toughest divisions in the league this season, but the Browns are uncharacteristically poised to compete for a division title against the Bengals and the Ravens. If Watson can regain his previous acumen and finally help break the Browns out of their decades-long doldrums, he’ll put his name firmly in the race for the MVP award by the end of the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.