NFL Futures Betting: The Case for Jordan Addison to Lead All Rookies in Receiving Yards

The Minnesota Vikings selected wide receiver Jordan Addison with the 23rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, making him the fourth receiver taken in the draft overall.

While three receivers were drafted with consecutive picks immediately ahead of Addison last Thursday, the former Pitt and USC wideout currently holds the best odds to lead rookies in receiving yards (+280), according to the NFL prop market at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Case for Jordan Addison

Addison entered the draft as an underclassman, posting a Biletnikoff Award-winning sophomore season with Pitt in 2021 before transferring to USC. He led the Trojans in all receiving categories as a junior. It’s not a direct apples-to-apples comparison, but Addison did finish his collegiate career with more receiving yards (3,134) than any of his first-round counterparts.

He’ll be unlikely to lead his new team in any receiving metrics in 2023 while playing alongside Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has dominated Minnesota’s passing game volume since his 2020 breakout season, earning just under 30% of the Vikings’ targets in each of his last two seasons. That doesn’t leave the largest share of targets for the remaining pass-catchers on the team.

That said, the Vikings finished the 2022 season (their first under offensive-minded head coach Kevin O’Connell) with the third-most passing attempts (672) and the fifth-most passing yards (4,484). Jefferson demands an enormous share of their passing game, but there’s still meat left on the bone for other receivers due to Minnesota’s pass-first approach to the offense under O’Connell.

Jefferson’s primary receiving teammates each produced respectable receiving numbers over the last two seasons. Adam Thielen accrued over 700 receiving yards in both of those seasons, and K.J. Osborn posted over 650 yards in 2022. The team parted ways with Thielen in the offseason, opening up an immediate opportunity for Addison to step into the starting lineup by Week 1 of the 2023 season.

Recent rookie receivers have finished the season with far more than 650-700 receiving yards in their first years; Ja'Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson racked up 1,455 and 1,103 receiving yards, respectively, in their debut campaigns. Jefferson himself has 1,400 as a rookie.

Fortunately for Addison, he won’t need to post similarly insane receiving numbers in his rookie season to cash this bet. He just needs to outproduce his competition.

Addison’s Primary Competition

Addison could benefit from factors outside of his own control and situation while competing to finish with the most receiving yards among rookies.

He’ll still need to produce receiving numbers while playing on the same team as Jefferson, but his contemporaries each have competition for targets with their new teams, as well. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will need to pry targets away from D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with the Seattle Seahawks. Quentin Johnston will be vying for opportunities alongside Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the Los Angeles Chargers, and Zay Flowers will have to contend with Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham, and Rashod Bateman on the Baltimore Ravens. From this perspective, Addison may have the easiest path to reliable targets among all of the first-round pass-catchers.

Receiving yards are a volume-based statistic, and the best way to produce them is to have as many opportunities as possible. With his high-volume passing offense and relative dearth of other pass-catchers beyond Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison may have the clearest path to opportunities of any of the rookie pass-catchers.

It also helps that Addison demonstrated a knack for highly efficient play in his final season. His 2.99 yards per route run (per PFF) last season ranked third among all drafted receivers in the 2023 class. His total receiving volume dropped after he transferred to USC for his final season, but his track record of efficiency gives him multiple paths to receiving production in his rookie year.

Jordan Addison's 2023 Outlook

Addison is tied with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the best odds to lead the 2023 draft class in receiving yards at +280.

Based on his situation, he has a strong case for that positioning. Still, he will need to actually outproduce the other pass-catchers named in this article -- as well as the slew of players drafted in later rounds with longer odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.