NFL Expert Picks: Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for 2024

Here at FanDuel Research, we try to give logical, sound reasoning rooted in data whenever we provide analysis. We care about the process and giving high-quality information at all times.

Today, we let the DGAF banner fly.

With the NFL season just one week away, it's time to unleash our bold predictions for the upcoming season. Sure, there will still be data involved, but we want to live a little dangerously for a hot second.

Let's dive in and see what our staff is eyeing for 2024.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Bold Prediction: Will Levis Posts 4,000-Plus Passing Yards

Consider this a "bonus" pick with 10 bold fantasy football predictions already out from me for everyone to save and laugh at later.

I do think touching on Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans' passing offense is worth mentioning in fantasy since he could be a useful QB2 in superflex leagues. Brian Callahan's Cincinnati Bengals were the second-heaviest passing squad entering Week 18 last year despite a hobbled Joe Burrow or Jake Browning at the helm all season.

With the additions of Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and another back in Tony Pollard who's a dynamic receiver to go along with Tyjae Spears, this team should throw a ton. That's especially true given they have one of the league's worst secondaries on defense and are expected to win just six or seven games, per FanDuel Sportsbook's win total odds at 6.5 for Tennessee.

Levis might throw 30 picks doing this, but the volume should pay off well beyond his QB22 average draft position most Sundays.

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Bold Prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. to Finish as a Top-20 WR

Rookie receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are getting all the attention in drafts -- and rightfully so -- but Brian Thomas Jr. could quickly join them as an impact wideout in Year 1.

Thomas was picked in the first round by the Jacksonville Jaguars to effectively replace Calvin Ridley, and let's remember that Ridley finished as the WR17 in half-PPR formats last season.

Thomas checks a lot of boxes, as he's gotten rave reviews in the preseason, was productive last year at LSU (1,177 receiving yards, 17 TDs), and boasts both size and speed. While he'll face competition from Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis for targets, he should ultimately surpass those two as the Jags' top wideout and is still being drafted outside of the first 40 WRs.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Bold Prediction: Travis Kelce Won't Be a Top-5 Tight End

Travis Kelce's excellent postseason run overshadowed that he had a down 2023 regular season by his lofty standards. He appeared to be losing some of his big-play juice, totaling just 65.6 receiving yards per game -- his fewest since 2015 -- and that was with only one other quality pass-catcher (Rashee Rice) to fight for targets within the Kansas City Chiefs' offense.

Heading into 2024, Kansas City has added weapons at receiver (Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown), so Kelce might not get force-fed as many looks as he did a year ago.

On top of that, for the first time in a while, tight end actually has some depth at the top of the position with the likes of Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid. Those five plus a potential breakout from Kyle Pitts should raise the bar for what it takes to finish as a top-five TE.

While Kelce still checked in as the half-PPR TE3 last year, he had just 2.2 more points than the TE5, and I think his slide down the positional ranks will continue this campaign.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Bold Prediction: Caleb Williams Breaks the Rookie Records for Passing Yards and Touchdowns

There is no denying the fact that Caleb Williams is entering a fantastic situation in his rookie campaign with the Chicago Bears. Just to kick things off, the Bears have the 11th-best offensive line entering the upcoming season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Aside from having a much-improved offensive line -- they were 19th in PFF's 2023 end-of-season rankings -- Chicago has a new-look offense that is littered with talent. During the offseason, the Bears added Keenan Allen, rookie Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Gerald Everett to a passing attack that already featured D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet.

At the moment, the rookie record for passing yards is 4,374, which was set by Andrew Luck in 2012. There have been only five rookie signal-callers to eclipse 4,000 passing yards, but Williams has the skill group to become the sixth.

As for the other record, Justin Herbert is the current record holder for passing touchdowns for a rookie with 31 of them in 2020. Herbert is the lone rookie quarterback to have 30-plus passing touchdowns in his inaugural season while only four rookies have tossed 26-plus touchdowns.

With the Bears' win total at 8.5 (with the over at -160 odds), Williams is expected to captain an offense that will take a massive leap in 2024, and he'll be surrounded with more than enough weapons to break multiple rookie passing records.

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Bold Prediction: DK Metcalf Will Lead the NFL in Receiving Touchdowns

Last year, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill tied for the league lead in recieving touchdowns with 13. In 2022, the league-leader had 14 touchdowns. The year prior, it was 16.

D.K. Metcalf has caught 14 touchdowns combined the last two seasons, but I think he’s a sneaky candidate to lead the league in receiving scores in 2024. We’ve seen Metcalf crack double-digit touchdowns twice in his five-year career, though both came with Russell Wilson as his quarterback.

Still, Geno Smith fed Metcalf a 38.1% red-zone target share (third in the NFL) and a 40.0% end zone target share (11th) last season. That led to only eight touchdowns, but the Seattle Seahawks scored a touchdown in the red zone at the seventh-lowest rate (48.2%) in the NFL.

That’s something that could change with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. As the OC at Washington last season, Grubb’s Huskies ranked ninth in college football in pass rate (58.9%) and fourth in passing touchdowns (38). That propelled X receiver Rome Odunze to 13 scores in 15 games, and it could lead to Metcalf crossing the goal line early and often in a similar role.

Annie Nader, Writer

Bold Prediction: Kyle Pitts Will Finish as the TE1

Something's gotta give with the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history who mustered 1,026 yards via 15.1 yards per catch in his rookie season. Kyle Pitts has notched just six scores in his professional career, but the 23-year-old could properly explode now that he is backed by legit quarterback play.

Injuries hindered Pitts' 2022 season, and we saw what happens to tight ends in terrible, Desmond Ridder-led offenses just last year. But with Kirk Cousins and new head coach Raheem Morris in town for the Atlanta Falcons, we should be looking at a fantasy-relevant offense that sees to exploiting Pitts' potential.

Our Austan Kas just touched on the potential pitfalls with Kelce. LaPorta, Andrews, McBride, and Kincaid will all be around competing for that coveted TE1 spot, but I have Pitts in this same tier. Currently, Pitts is the seventh tight end being swiped from fantasy draft boards.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Bold Prediction: Rico Dowdle Records 1,000-Plus Rushing Yards

This one may seem pretty crazy at a quick glance, especially now that Dalvin Cook is joining the Dallas Cowboys' backfield.

FanDuel Research’s season-long fantasy football projections were giving Rico Dowdle about 33.3 rushing yards per game for the 2024 season even before the Cook signing. Assuming Dowdle were to play in 17 games, this would give him about 566 rushing yards. That’s far behind reaching the 1,000-yard milestone.

However, I believe Dowdle is flying under the radar big time.

Will he be one of the league’s best rushers? Probably not, but the Cowboys have featured a 1,000-plus-yard rusher in 8 of the last 10 seasons.

Dowdle had some eye-catching efficiency in 2023 as he averaged the ninth most yards created per touch, according to Player Profiler. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard was 37th in the category and still reached the 1,000-yard mark last season in Dallas.

The Cowboys had the fourth-highest run block win rate in 2023, per ESPN, and the offensive line is arguably even better for 2024 with youth joining the group, making injuries less of a worry. Dowdle has been consistently labeled as the best running back at training camp; for example, Jon Machota of The Athletic said Dowdle, “has to be the favorite to lead the team in rushing.”

The addition of Cook throws a wrench into the situation, but he posted -1.21 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) last season, and his 2.84 yards created per touch was far behind Dowdle’s 3.92. The addition of Cook could have more to do with Ezekiel Elliott than Dowdle. Dowdle still seems bound for a big year on the ground as the most efficient runner by a mile.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Bold Prediction: Jonathan Taylor Will Record 2,000-Plus Yards From Scrimmage

One of the cruelest aspects of Anthony Richardson's injury last year is it deprived us of getting to watch him alongside Jonathan Taylor. Taylor made his debut in Week 5, which was when Richardson sustained his season-ending injury.

I'm ready to watch the duo feast this year.

When healthy, Taylor played well last year. He averaged 0.3 RYOE/C. He racked up 10-plus yards on 13.6% of his carries, up from 9.9% for all backs with at least 100 rushes. Zack Moss was also above average there, showing how good Shane Steichen's system is.

Now we get to see Taylor alongside Richardson, who will draw the eyes of the defense via his legs. That should open up even more rushing lanes for Taylor.

The big question is the pass-catching. Both Taylor and Moss got work there last year, but that was primarily via Gardner Minshew.

It's reassuring, then, that Richardson gave six targets to running back Deon Jackson in Week 1, one of his two full games. JT should get at least some work in all aspects of the game.

FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections have Taylor pegged for 1,674.88 yards from scrimmage across 17 games, so asking him to get 2,000 is a lot. But with a 2,171-yard season back in 2021, Taylor has proven before this is a realistic goal.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.