NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 15
Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.
Here's what our staff likes for this week.
Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.
NFL Expert Picks for Week 15
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Spread/Moneyline: Bills' Moneyline (+116)
Moneyline
I have to take plus money behind the scorching run Allen has produced, sitting second across the NFL in expected points added per drop back (0.22 EPA/db) and potentially getting two of his top weapons back this week. We'll see points as no team has slowed down the Detroit Lions (32.1 PPG this season), but Allen can do his own damage against a banged-up Lions D that's quietly surrendering 8.2 yards per play (YPP) over their last five contests. The Lions are bound to regress from a 6-1 record in one-score games.
Total: Chiefs-Browns Over 43.5 (-110)
Total Match Points
Player Prop: Jerry Jeudy Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Jerry Jeudy - Receiving Yds
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Spread/Moneyline: Broncos -3.5 (-122)
Spread
Total: Bears-Vikings Under 44.5 (-112)
Total Match Points
Player Prop: Tank Dell Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Tank Dell - Receiving Yds
This line is very attainable for a wideout who has averaged 13.9 yards per catch over his career. While Dell isn't having as great of a season as he did in 2023, he's still gone for 41-plus yards in three of his past five games, with a near miss (39 yards) mixed in. Playing indoors against a pass-funnel Miami Dolphins defense -- 18th versus the pass and 7th against the run -- Dell projects for 52.1 receiving yards, per our NFL player projections.
Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor
Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -7 (-102)
Spread
Total: Cowboys-Panthers Over 42.5 (-120)
Total Match Points
Per our Brandon Gdula, the Dallas Cowboys rank first in adjusted pace, helping this game project as the week's fifth-fastest matchup. On top of that, we're looking at two teams that are inside the bottom five in schedule-adjusted defense, which should help these offenses put up points. While it hasn't amounted to wins, Bryce Young has also played notably better for the Carolina Panthers since their bye, averaging 0.08 expected points added per drop back over the last three games, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Player Prop: Davante Adams Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Davante Adams - Receiving Yds
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Spread/Moneyline: Commanders -7.5 (-110)
Spread
Total: Jets-Jaguars Under 40.5 (-115)
Total Match Points
Player Prop: Sam Darnold Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Sam Darnold - Passing Yds
Darnold enters Week 15's date with the Chicago Bears having exceeded 300 passing yards in two of his last three games -- one of which came against the very Bears secondary he'll face on Monday night. Chicago has sunk to 11th in adjusted pass defense following a hot start to the year, and they've now given up a league-average 217 passing yards per game. With Darnold averaging 251.3 passing yards at home, he's in a nice spot to clear 242.5 passing yards, a line 12 yards fewer than the 254.1 in numberFire's NFL DFS projections.
Annie Nader, Writer
Spread/Moneyline: Bucs +3 (-118)
Spread
Total: Jets-Jaguars Under 40.5 (-115)
Total Match Points
Player Prop: Jameson Williams 80-Plus Receiving Yards (+230)
Jamo leads the Detroit Lions in air yards share (32.4%) and has drawn a team-high in targets (22) across Detroit’s last three. His big-play ability has helped him notch 76-plus yards in 54.5% of his games. He’s gone for 79-plus in five out of six (83.3%) indoor contests at Ford Field. These +230 odds imply just a 30.3% probability, not to mention this showdown against the Buffalo Bills is set up to be a shootout.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Spread/Moneyline: Bengals -4.5 (-120)
Spread
Total: Cowboys-Panthers Over 42.5 (-120)
Total Match Points
Player Prop: Jayden Daniels Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Jayden Daniels - Rushing Yds
Daniels is averaging 54.0 rushing yards per game and 2.47 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) over his last two games. The New Orleans Saints feature a run-funnel defense that carries the ninth-best adjusted pass defense and third-worst adjusted rush defense. The Commanders sport the sixth-highest rush-play rate in football, and Daniels is logging 8.0 rushing attempts per game over the last two. New Orleans has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season; give me the over for Daniels’ rushing yard prop.
Skyler Carlin, Writer
Spread/Moneyline: Bengals -4.5 (-120)
Spread
Total: Chiefs-Browns Over 43.5 (-110)
Total Match Points
Player Prop: Adam Thielen Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Adam Thielen - Receiving Yds
Facing the Dallas Cowboys puts Thielen in a fantastic spot in Week 15 as they are giving up the 10th-most receiving yards (2.016), 7th-highest catch rate over expected (+1.8%), 8th-highest target rate (21.0%), and 6th-most yards per route run (1.73) to WRs, via NextGenStats. Just over the last two weeks, Thielen leads the Carolina Panthers in target share (28.4%), air yards share (31.5%), and yards per route run (3.00) while averaging 100.5 receiving yards per game in that sample.
Jim Sannes, Managing Editor
Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers' Moneyline (+130)
Moneyline
Total: Commanders-Saints Alt Over 46.5 (+136)
Alternate Total Points
What could go wrong betting on points when one of the starting quarterbacks is Jake Haener? Most of the enthusiasm here does come from the Washington Commanders, who should be able to score even while trying to grind clock, given how poor the New Orleans Saints' rush defense is. I don't mind the baseline number, but going toward the alt market allows me to benefit more in what is, objectively, a high-risk spot.
Player Prop: Josh Allen to Score 2-Plus Touchdowns (+850)
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.