NFL Expert Best Bets and Predictions for Week 1

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 1

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Cardinals +6.5 (-110)

Total: Chargers-Raiders Under 40.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders should both be candidates for an ugly game or two this season.

L.A. brings in Jim Harbaugh, whose Michigan team was 2nd percentile in seconds per play and 87th percentile in rush rate last year across FBS.

The Raiders stuck with Antonio Pierce, and they were 19th in Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and 3rd in Defensive NEP per play with him at the helm in nine contests last year. This total should only drop if Justin Herbert's status on the injury report with his foot issue becomes more serious, as well.

Player Prop: Jayden Daniels Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Falcons -3.5 (-106)

Total: Saints-Panthers Under 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

The Indianapolis Colts boast the third-best offensive line, per PFF's rankings, and the front five can help Taylor succeed versus a good Houston Texans run defense. Taylor faced the Texans just once a year ago and went ballistic, totaling 188 rushing yards on 30 carries in Week 18.

For his career, Taylor has averaged 95.0 rushing yards per game at home -- compared to 77.5 on the road -- and our NFL projections have the Colts' star back going for 82.2 rushing yards in Week 1.

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -3.5 (-102)

While it's possible the Washington Commanders have found their new franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels, this is a team that still possess glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

According to PFF, the offensive line (27th) and secondary (30th) will be among the league's worst in 2024, and this team also comes into the year at 30th in numberFire's power rankings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers figure to be a middle-of-the-pack team again this year, but they shouldn't have much trouble covering as a slight home favorite.

Total: Saints-Panthers Under 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: De'Von Achane Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Bears -3.5 (-118)

The Chicago Bears enter 2024 ranked 16th in numberFire's power rankings, while the Tennessee Titans are down at No. 28. Chicago's defense flashed brilliance down the stretch last season, and their 19th-ranked secondary (per PFF) has the star-power to wreak havoc on second-year quarterback Will Levis.

I typically want to shy away from rookie quarterbacks making their NFL debut, but Caleb Williams' pedigree is hard to ignore, and his slew of receivers are well-positioned to feast against a Titans defense that gave up the fourth-highest EPA per dropback in 2023.

Total: Dolphins-Jaguars Over 49.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Bijan Robinson Over 98.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

Annie Nader, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Saints -3.5 (-118)

Total: Patriots-Bengals Under 40.5 (-104)

Player Prop: Alvin Kamara Any Time Touchdown (+130)

The Carolina Panthers come into the year with the fourth-worst defensive line (per PFF) and the second-worst rush defense (per numberFire's metrics).

Yes, the New Orleans Saints have a similarly dismal offensive line, but Alvin Kamara did own a 50.7% red-zone rush share and a 17.0% red zone target share in 2023.

There will be some scores to go around for the Saints in this matchup, so it's easy for me to be drawn to these +130 odds.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Packers' Moneyline (+108)

Total: Titans-Bears Over 44.5 (-114)

Player Prop: Javonte Williams Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Denver Broncos take on numberFire’s worst schedule-adjusted run defense held by the Seattle Seahawks. Williams enters the season healthy while running behind PFF’s 15th-best offensive line.

Over 53.5 rushing yards is enticing with Williams holding 56.4 projected rushing yards, according to FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Texans -2.5 (-120)

Total: Commanders-Buccaneers Over 42.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Waddle has a chance to shine in a potentially high-scoring affair between the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars with the second-highest total (49.5) of the weekend.

Waddle will be looking to improve on his 22.0% target share from last season (including the playoffs) while he achieved 60-plus receiving yards in 7 of his 14 regular season contests in 2023. Our projections have Waddle easily clearing this line with 77.9 receiving yards.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Cowboys' Moneyline (+118)

Total: Texans-Colts Under 48.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Taysom Hill Any Time Touchdown (+200)

Hill scored in 31.5% of his games last year, just below the implied odds of 33.3%. Across the past two seasons combined, he's hitting paydirt at a 43.8% clip, which would equate to +129 odds.

Hill got more work as a running back during the preseason, lining up as a back for 9 of his 21 snaps, according to Next-Gen Stats. With Kendre Miller on IR, the Saints need someone to give Kamara a breather every now and then. It really seems like they're going to give Hill some of that work, in which case he's probably undervalued here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.