NFL Divisional Round Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about the Divisional Round's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Texans at Chiefs Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -6.5

Total Prediction: 45.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: As part of a theme for the Divisional Round, my model likes the over here. It's true that the Houston Texans' defense (and offense, frankly) sets up well for an under, but the Kansas City Chiefs' offense was efficient down the stretch, especially after Marquise Brown's return. This number is low enough where I'm comfortable with the over despite the Texans' involvement.

Commanders at Lions Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -7.8

Total Prediction: 58.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Uhhhhhhhhhhhh yeah, so, this total is high. I get it, given the states of the Detroit Lions' and Washington Commanders' defenses. I would just say to proceed with caution, given I don't have any precedent within my model to say how often games projected this high go over a total of 55.5. It's -- quite obviously -- the highest total I've ever projected.

Rams at Eagles Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -5.0

Total Prediction: 48.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Of the four overs the model is recommending, this is the one of which I am most skeptical. Not only are the Los Angeles Rams going outdoors, but the Philadelphia Eagles have gone fully into pound-you-into-submission mode, which bodes well for unders. I'm okay missing out if this game shoots out -- despite what the model says -- because I can see so many paths to disappointment.

Ravens at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Ravens -0.6

Total Prediction: 53.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I kind of expected to show value on the Baltimore Ravens here, but the market was out in front of that. I do think the over is hyper-viable, though, against the Buffalo Bills, given how electric both offenses can be. This prediction currently projects Zay Flowers as playing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.