NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Super Wild Card Weekend has come and gone, meaning the eight teams left standing are now gearing up for what should be an incredible Divisional Round of the playoffs.

The first matchup of the weekend, airing at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 20th, features a bout between the AFC's top seed Baltimore Ravens and the up-and-coming Houston Texans. It could be an electric match and will be must-see television for any football fan.

Both of these teams have come a long way since they initially met back in Week 1. The Ravens took that one down in simplistic fashion, holding the Texans to a trio of field goals during a 25-9 win. Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud -- whose talents were unknown at that point -- came away from the game earning praise for his poise under pressure, despite absorbing five sacks under the Ravens' torrential pass rush.

Even those among us who were encouraged by his performance would have had a hard time predicting his ascent over the rest of the season. Stroud could very well take down Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after finishing with the third-most passing yards all-time (4,108) for a rookie and guiding his team to an AFC South championship.

More recently, Stroud emerged triumphant from his Wild Card matchup against the Cleveland Browns' strong defense, earning a near-perfect 157.2 passer rating in his first-ever playoff game while completing 76.2% of his passes for 274 yards and 3 scores.

But has Stroud grown enough since his NFL debut to topple the mighty Ravens? The Ravens' only losses came from an arguably fluky overtime stunner, a close loss to another playoff team, and a Week 18 game in which they rested a great number of their starters.

And while the Texans have the likely Rookie of the Year guiding their ship, the Ravens can boast MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson as their quarterback.

No matter which team comes out on top in this one, it's guaranteed to be a spectacle for any fan.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Ravens -8.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• Houston: +310
• Baltimore: -390

Total: 45.5

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: Best Bets

Ravens -8.5 (-115)

The 13-3 Ravens are, understandably, pretty heavy favorites in this one. Their +270 Super Bowl Odds are the second-strongest of the teams left standing, and they should be well-rested after a well-earned bye.

Even with the Texans surging from their first playoff win since 2019, they'll have a hard time finding points against Baltimore's tough defense.

This looks like a rough matchup on paper for Houston. The Ravens led the league in sacks (60) despite generating pressure at a bottom-10 rate. They blitzed their foes at the eighth-lowest rate, illustrating a trend in their defense. They like to send just a handful of defenders to rush the passer and rely on strong coverage and numbers in the defensive backfield to shut down their opponents' aerial attacks.

Top-notch play from linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen has been essential in simultaneously providing good coverage when needed while also shutting down the run without overcommitting numbers to the box. It has made the Ravens' defense a unit to be feared and earned them the top spot in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings.

That's troublesome for the Texans, who punished the Browns' aggressive defensive line play last week by nailing deep shots throughout the game. Stroud finished the year as Pro Football Focus' second-ranked deep passer on the year, compiling a league-high 1,213 passing yards and 9 touchdowns on attempts of 20 or more air yards. He might not find as much success as a deep passer against the Ravens with their tendency to drop a lot of players back into coverage.

Stroud holds onto the ball, with his 3.04-second average time to throw ranked fifth-longest among qualifying starters. That plays right into the strength of Baltimore's defense. You don't have to send as many defenders to rush the passer when he's forced to hang onto the ball for several seconds. And unfortunately, the Texans' ground game hasn't shown enough this year to warrant belief that they'll be the unit to take advantage of Baltimore's lighter fronts.

So, while the Ravens' Jackson-led offense should have little difficulty scoring points against the Texans' middling defense, the Texans' offense could really struggle against the Ravens' defense. I'm expecting Houston to fall behind and to have trouble catching up, allowing for the Ravens to cover their 8.5-point spread.

Over 45.5 (-105)

Now that I'm done gushing about the Ravens' defense, it's time to pivot to their MVP-caliber offense.

Lamar Jackson has been unreal this season, leading his team in passing (obviously) and in rushing (821 yards). They've been putting up elite numbers down the stretch, averaging 33.1 points per game over Jackson's final 11 games. The Ravens are equipped to handle more than their fair share of this total to hit the over.

In addition to boasting the most productive rushing attack in the league, which ran for 262 more yards than the second-ranked team, Jackson has settled into new offensive coordinator Todd Monken's system down the stretch. He reached a career-best 3,678 passing yards and finished third in adjusted yards per attempt with a strong 8.4-yard mark.

Jackson even took a leap forward after the team's late Week 13 bye, averaging an absurd 9.7 adjusted yards per attempt in his final four starts while posting 265.0 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns per game.

We don't have to worry too much about the Ravens putting numbers up against the Texans' 14th-ranked defense. That means we just need the Texans' prolific offense to do enough to help this game reach its 45.5-point line.

If the Ravens have just an average (for them) outing and post their typical 33.1 points, that means we need the Texans to score only about 13 points. They accomplished that feat in all but two of Stroud's starts this year, giving this game a good shot to hit its over.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 20th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.