NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

The aftermath of an exciting Wild Card Weekend leaves us with eight teams vying for the Super Bowl LVIII title. The No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers pulled off the weekend's biggest upset, toppling the No. 2 seed Dallas Cowboys as road underdogs.

Jordan Love continued to turn heads, throwing for 272 yards and three touchdowns off of a 76.2% completion percentage. Green Bay's young and gritty offense features an ensemble of threats ready to step up at a moment's notice. In Sunday's win, Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs took the lead, each ending with 100-plus yards and reaching the end zone a combined four times.

The Packers have shown us inspired efforts as of late but will have their work cut out for them this weekend against the No. 1 seed, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have claimed dominion over their conference all season and currently tout -180 odds to win the NFC Championship. Add in home-field advantage and a bye week that should ensure ample rest and health, and this game appears to be SF's for the taking.

But we can't count out this Green Bay group just yet. Do the Packers have another upset road win in them, or will the 49ers glide to a par-for-the-course victory? The must-watch affair kicks off this Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on FOX.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: 49ers -9.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• San Francisco: -480
• Green Bay: +370

Total: 50.5

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Best Bets

Packers +9.5 (-105)

San Francisco comes into this one as the week-high (tied) 9.5-point favorite. According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, the 49ers are the number one ranked squad, made up of the best schedule-adjusted offense and eighth-best schedule-adjusted defense. The Packers rank eighth overall, touting the league's fifth-best offense and 23rd-ranked defense.

The wide spread makes sense, especially given that all but one of SF's 12 victories this season were won by at least 12 points. But while dominant is the word to use for this 49ers team, I think there are some cracks in the case that could give credence to a Green Bay cover this weekend.

Let's start with momentum. Green Bay has won four straight games and scored a mind-boggling 16 touchdowns across that span. They've been playing for their survival for what seems like weeks on end, and Jordan Love doesn't seem to be phased by any of it.

The Niners haven't seen the field in two weeks while Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey haven't played since New Year's Eve. There are plenty of takes on the rest vs. rust debate, and while I think the Niners' D and CMC shouldn't be negatively impacted by extended time off, I do think Purdy could get banged up this weekend.

Green Bay's D forced the eighth-most (tied) fumbles and held the ninth-best sack percentage this season. Their pressure rates skyrocketed to third-best in the final three games of the regular season, and we saw on Sunday how they forced Dak Prescott to throw two interceptions, one of which was taken to the house.

I don't want to get too in over my head bragging about this Packers defense -- numberFire has them ranked 23rd for a reason -- but they might be able to force Purdy into some sticky situations this weekend.

I'm not a Purdy doubter and believe he has earned his stripes, but we can't ignore that he can be prone to negative flare-ups. After all, Purdy's second-most recent game was that four-interception outing in Baltimore that saw him grabbing some bench in the fourth quarter. Green Bay's D is not Baltimore's D, but three weeks of rest could make for a vulnerable Purdy.

San Francisco's fifth-ranked pass defense (per numberFire) is scary, but they did allow the 11th-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs and ranked just 18th in sack percentage this season. Their secondary is rock-solid, allowing just 8.9 yards per completion (third-best).

But the Packers pose an interesting matchup in that there is not one main target that draws particular focus from the defense. We saw Doubs go for 151 receiving yards against Dallas, the week before that it was Jayden Reed leading the way with 112 yards, and the week before that saw Bo Melton grabbing 105 yards -- not to mention Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson, who have each exceeded 90 receiving yards on multiple occasions this season.

CMC should have a monster game and could very well lead his team to what the market is qualifying as a likely victory. And if Purdy plays like the mid-season MVP candidate we knew him as, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle will get in on the fun, too.

But I'm not ready to give up on Jordan Love, and I think his arm will keep this game within nine points. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes to zero interceptions across his last five games and doesn't rely on any single receiver to get the job done, meaning any misstep in SF's secondary could be costly. Love was a top deep passer in the late days of the regular season and led all QBs (tied with C.J. Stroud) in yards per attempt (13.0) during Wild Card Weekend. Add in a turnover battle that could favor Green Bay against a potentially rusty Purdy, and I like the Packers to cover.

Over 50.5 (-115)

My faith in Green Bay's passing game to keep this contest somewhat close leads us to the over. San Francisco's offense shouldn't have any issue keeping up their end of the bargain. An unleashed CMC should be lethal, especially against a Packers D that let up the ninth-most (tied) rush touchdowns per game this season.

Purdy, paired with Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle, rounds out what numberFire calls the best offense in the business, and led to the Niners scoring 28.9 points per game this season (second-most).

But Green Bay isn't too far behind them. They scored 23.9 points per game (eighth-most), averaged 25.5 points in the final eight games of the season, and put a whopping 48 points on the board this past Sunday despite going up against a Cowboys D that ranked ninth overall (per numberFire).

The Niners should be capable of reaching or exceeding their points per game average against a gritty but unconvincing Packers D, and I think Love and company will partially succeed at firing back to turn this one into a shootout.

numberFire's projections are satisfied with a Green Bay cover and give a very slight lean towards the over, forecasting this game to end with a 28.39-22.55 49ers victory.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.