NFL Divisional Round Best Bets and Predictions for Texans at Chiefs

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Divisional Round matchup between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Texans at Chiefs Betting Picks

Over 41.5 (-110)

There's no doubt that the Texans deploy one of the best defenses among teams remaining in the playoffs. Houston's defense limited the Los Angeles Chargers to 261 total yards of offense and 12 points while forcing four turnovers en route to a 32-12 victory in the Wild Card Round.

Despite the Texans being second in schedule-adjusted pass defense and sixth in schedule-adjusted run defense, the Chiefs are set to begin their quest of winning three consecutive Super Bowls. While Kansas City have yet to score 31-plus points in a game this season, their offense was showing signs of improvement down the stretch in the regular season.

Before resting their starters in Week 18 versus the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs tallied 27-plus points in back-to-back games, which includes a matchup against the Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers -- who were 10th in schedule-adjusted defense. During Kansas City's six-game winning streak from Week 12 to Week 17, Patrick Mahomes was taking better care of the football, tossing 11 touchdowns to 0 interceptions during that span (compared to 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his first 10 starts).

The only concern with the over in this game is the fact that Houston's offense hasn't shown much consistency, but C.J. Stroud and the Texans' aerial attack could show signs of life against the Chiefs' 19th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. numberFire's game projections has Saturday's Texans-Chiefs clash finishing with a score of 24.98-21.80 in favor of Kansas City.

Chiefs' 1st Drive Result: Offensive Touchdown (+250)

Through their first 10 games of the season, the Chiefs were failing to start games on a positive note when they had the ball on offense, generating points on only 4 of their 10 opening drives. Furthermore, Kansas City scored a touchdown on their opening possession just three times from Week 1 to Week 11, and one of those occurred in the season opener against the Baltimore Ravens.

But what seems like an inevitability for the Chiefs since Mahomes became the starting signal-caller, Kansas City's offense seemed to have found their groove in the final weeks of the regular season. Not only have the Chiefs scored on their opening drive in six straight contests (excluding their Week 18 game where they sat starters), but they've found the end zone on their first offensive possession in three consecutive outings.

For those who are concerned with the Chiefs sitting at 22nd in red-zone touchdown percentage (53.9%) against the Texans' stout defense, taking Kansas City to attempt a field goal on their first offensive drive (+330) has some value, as well. Considering that the Chiefs have had interceptions, fumbles, or turnover on downs (4 total) be the end result of their opening possessions more often than a punt (2 total) this season, it's clear they understandably aren't afraid to be aggressive and put the ball in Mahomes' hands instead of punting it away.

Taking Kansas City to score a touchdown the first time they touch the ball on offense also correlates with backing the over in this game. With the Chiefs having an extra week to prepare for their first postseason bout, I'm expecting Andy Reid to have a masterful opening script to begin Saturday's game.

You can also check out our latest 2024-25 NFL Playoffs printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.