NFL DFS First Look: Initial Observations for the Week 6 Main Slate
Last week's FanDuel NFL DFS main slate is barely in the rearview mirror, but it's never too early to look ahead to the next main slate.
With that in mind, let's peek ahead to this coming Sunday's main slate and see what early-week observations stand out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL DFS First Look at the Week 6 Main Slate Salaries
David Montgomery And Jahmyr Gibbs Have Similar Salaries
At first glance for the Week 6 main slate, the impending matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions will likely be a popular game to target. While plenty of people will stack the passing games of both teams, those who want to get exposure to Detroit's rushing attack will have to make a decision between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Through the first four games, Gibbs leads Detroit's backfield in snap rate (53.6%) and route rate (47.1%), but Montgomery is pacing the team in rushing attempts (15.8) and scrimmage yards per game (91.3) while boasting an impressive 54.0% rushing success rate, via NextGenStats. Both Montgomery and Gibbs have been effective together again, and the Cowboys have a defense we can certainly target with RBs.
Following their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5, Dallas has given up the third-most FanDuel points (110.1), third-most rushing touchdowns (6), and second-most rushing EPA per attempt (0.08) to RBs. Montgomery and Gibbs have both scored 14-plus FD points in each game this season while a meeting with the Cowboys could present a ceiling outcome for one or both Lions running backs.
Chase Brown Received A Notable Decrease in Salary
Ahead of the Week 5 main slate, Chase Brown got a salary increase to $6,100 due to scoring a season-high 22.2 FD points versus the Carolina Panthers. However, the explosive back for the Cincinnati Bengals has seen his salary drop all the way to $5,400 despite another solid outing against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are a tough team to run the ball against as they have permitted the fourth-fewest FD points (57.6) and the fewest rushing yards over expected per attempt (-1.34) to the RB position. Nevertheless, Brown finished with a formidable 14.6 FD points in Week 5 as he turned 15 total touches into 54 yards and a score.
Even though Zack Moss led the Bengals in snap rate (69.2%) and route rate (52.4%), he had two fewer scrimmage yards than Brown, and he exited the game with an ankle injury. If Moss is forced to miss any time or is limited by his ankle ailment, then Brown becomes an enticing option at his new salary ahead of a road meeting with the New York Giants.
The Packers WRs Not Named Jayden Reed Still Have Solid Salaries
The Green Bay Packers secured a win in Week 5 over the Los Angeles Rams, but it was a disappointing outcome for those who stacked the passing game of the Packers. At a $7,200 salary, Jayden Reed hauled in 4 of his 6 targets for 78 yards and only 11.7 FD points.
Meanwhile, Dontayvion Wicks fell short of expectations in an increased role with just 2 receptions for 20 yards despite leading the team with a 28.0% target share and 43.5% air yards share. The positives for Wicks are that he's creating separation and getting valuable downfield targets, but he and Love aren't on the same page at times, and his drops will need to be cleaned up.
There is reason for optimism surrounding Wicks and the other receivers entering Week 6 as Green Bay will take on the Arizona Cardinals at home. Arizona's defense has allowed the fourth-most FD points per target (1.74) and third-most yards per route run (1.97) to WRs. While Reed got a salary increase to $7,700 for the Week 6 main slate, Wicks is still sitting at a modest $6,000 and Romeo Doubs is only $5,700 if he returns to the team after being suspended for the Week 5 contest.
After everyone was burned by the Packers' pass-catchers -- outside of Tucker Kraft -- this past week, I'll be going right back to them in Week 6. We will also need to monitor the status of Christian Watson as he deals with a sprained ankle.
Mark Andrews Continues to Dip in Salary
Mark Andrews had his most productive performance of the season in Week 5, finishing with 4 catches for 55 yards on 5 targets. Despite Andrews doing more than just making the transition to offensive tackle this week, he still tallied the fewest FD points among Baltimore tight ends in Week 5.
Isaiah Likely managed to record 14.8 FD points with two touchdowns and Charlie Kolar even scored 14.1 FD points with 64 yards and a touchdown despite playing just 27.3% of the snaps. So even when Andrews is leading the TEs on the Ravens in target share (12.2%) and air yards share (11.7%), it still isn't amounting to much in DFS or any fantasy format.
As a result of his production to begin the year, Andrews continues to take a hit to his salary, going from $5,900 in Week 5 to $5,500 in Week 6. While the Washington Commanders are a team we can target with WRs, they've given up the second-fewest FD points (14.1) and fifth-fewest yards per route run (0.78) to TEs, making Andrews someone to avoid again in DFS.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.