NFC South Odds Update: We've Got a Three-Horse Race

While some divisions in the NFL have clear frontrunners, others are home to fierce competitions between rivals vying for the top spot over the few remaining weeks of the season.

Divisions like the NFC East pit top teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles against each other, while the AFC East features a stumbling Miami Dolphins doing their best to stave off the surging Buffalo Bills. The AFC North boasts four teams with winning records, the AFC South's three frontrunners are all within a game of each other, and even the fate of the NFC North could come down to the wire.

Even with all of this fierce competition for division titles across the league, arguably no race is being more ferociously contested than that of the NFC South.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are all currently tied at the top of the division as of Week 14, but with a small twist -- these teams all have losing 6-7 records. And. technically speaking, they could all finish the year tied with losing 8-9 records. That's right -- the only division whose 2022 playoff representative finished the regular season with a losing record has a chance to repeat that feat in 2023.

So, let's take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFC South odds and see how the market shakes out.

NFC South Odds

A quick glance at the odds reveals an interesting dynamic between these teams and their odds -- it appears as though their betting odds have an inverse relationship with the way numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics rank them.

Let's take a closer look at each of these teams to figure out why that is.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+155)

Somehow, the Bucs just keep finding a way. They've rattled off back-to-back wins to claim the top spot in the division (via tie-breakers) and notched a series-tying win over the Falcons in Week 14. The Bucs' battles with the Falcons do a good job illustrating just how close this division is. They earned that win with a last-minute touchdown pass to tight end Cade Otton to take them to a 29-25 final score. In their previous bout with the Falcons, the Bucs kicked a game-tying field goal with under a minute left only to lose that one, 16-13, to another last-second field goal. We're talking about a pair of games that came down to their literal last seconds and finished with a combined one-point differential.

While the Saints' home crowd aggressively boos their offense and the Falcons' head coach continues to flummox and frustrate Falcons fans and fantasy managers, the Bucs have put together a surprising underdog campaign with Baker Mayfield under center. They've already earned future Hall of Famer Mike Evans his 10th-straight 1,000-yard season and still have plenty of players from their Super Bowl-winning team on the roster. In a division packed with losing records, the Bucs can at least claim a winning narrative.

Unfortunately for Bucs fans and Bucs bettors alike, they have arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the division. They'll have to navigate through three games against the Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Saints before they close out the year with a soft one against the Carolina Panthers. That schedule could be their undoing as they vie for the NFC South's title.

Atlanta Falcons (+175)

Like a bad cold, the Falcons just won't go away.

They have both benched and un-benched quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has thrown as many interceptions (9) as touchdowns, holds the highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.4%) according to Pro Football Focus, and takes sacks at the fifth-highest rate among Week 15's projected starters. Take a look at Drake London's interception-saving catch from last week (below) to get a sense of Ridder's play this year. And somehow, despite sticking with Ridder, the team is still 6-7 and competing for their division. Only in the NFC South.

Frankly speaking, the Falcons shouldn't be in this position. They have won just two games by more than a touchdown this year (one of which came against the hapless Panthers) and have yet to top 28 points in any single game. They needed help to reach that 28-point mark, grabbing an extra two points from their defense on a safety in Week 9. That defense is a big reason why the Falcons are having success as the much-improved unit ranks ninth by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

Atlanta is in this situation because of the easy schedule of opponents they've faced on the year. According to Pro-Football-Reference's strength of schedule metric, Atlanta has had the league's third-softest schedule on the path to their sub-.500 record. Given a tougher slate of foes, the Falcons simply wouldn't be in this situation. But judging by their schedule over the remaining four weeks of the season, we still can't write them off as contenders for the division title.

While they'll finish the season off with what could be a high-stakes duel with the Saints in Week 18, Atlanta will play the Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears before then -- three highly winnable games. The Falcons are a below-average team but could leverage a soft schedule into their first playoff berth since 2017.

New Orleans Saints (+185)

Let's talk about the "underdogs" to win the NFC South -- the New Orleans Saints.

numberFire's schedule-adjusted power rankings consider New Orleans to be the best team in the division. They certainly look like the best team on paper. Among NFC South teams, they've scored the most points and allowed the fewest points and have already beaten both the Bucs and the Falcons in their previous games this year.

On the negative, the team's fans -- and even his teammates -- have grown sick of Derek Carr's frustrating play while the coaches continue to rush him back onto the field despite his ever-growing list of injuries. Carr is now "up to three rib fractures" and has sprained and re-aggravated the AC joint in his throwing shoulder. With Jameis Winston riding the pine behind Carr, you kind of have to wonder why the Saints are doing this to themselves.

It almost feels as though the biggest obstacle standing in the Saints' path to an NFC South title is themselves. If they can get past their current woes, their fate should be in their own hands. They'll take on both of their division rivals over the final four weeks as well as the hapless New York Giants in Week 15 and the Los Angeles Rams. They're 6.5-point favorites over the Giants this week.

Every win is going to matter a ton in this race, and with the Bucs a 3.5-point 'dog at the Packers and Atlanta just a 3.0-point road favorite over Carolina, New Orleans is in the best spot to pick up a W this weekend.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.