NFC South Betting: This Division Could Be Chaos

With training camps starting and the first preseason games fast approaching, now is a great time to dive into the robust futures markets via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here, I'm going to focus on the NFL division winner odds, but FanDuel Sportsbook offers other intriguing markets such as NFL win totals and odds to make the NFL playoffs for all 32 teams -- in addition to a slew of NFL player props.

Let's take a look at the NFC South, a division that is among the most unpredictable in the NFL heading into 2023.

New Orleans Saints 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-148 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -172
Odds to Win the NFC South: +130
Odds to Win the NFC: +1700
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4000 (17th-best)

This whole article could be a shrug emoji.

That sums up my feelings on the NFC South in 2023. A year after all four of these teams went under .500, this division could give us another year of chaos as each of the four teams will have a different Week 1 starting quarterback than what they opened 2022 with. There's a lot of volatility with this division, but it could be a great opportunity in the futures market.

The New Orleans Saints enter the campaign as the favorite, and that makes sense. Derek Carr should give the Saints stability under center, and surrounded by some talented playmakers, including Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, Carr could hit the ground running in his new digs, although he'll have to cope with an offensive line that PFF ranks just 24th.

Defensively, the Saints were really good in 2022, ranking fifth-best in yards per play allowed (5.0), and they were particularly stout against the pass, checking in third-best in net yards per pass attempt allowed (5.4). New Orleans did that despite getting only seven games from stud corner Marshon Lattimore.

They should once again be a top-level D in 2023, with free-agent signings Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders helping to replenish a defensive front that lost David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, Marcus Davenport and Kaden Elliss -- with three of the four departing to NFC South foes.

The Saints are also aided by a nice schedule. While that's the case for every team in this division, the Saints have the NFL's second-easiest schedule going by 2023 win totals.

All in all, the Saints are a deserving favorite as a team with a solid roster and a solid quarterback. Although New Orleans may not have a ton of upside unless Carr greatly improves from his 2022 play, solid is likely enough in this division.

Atlanta Falcons 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5 (-122 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +112
Odds to Win the NFC South: +210
Odds to Win the NFC: +2500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +5500 (21st-best)

Not that we definitely know what we're getting from the Saints, but after New Orleans, the division really gets weird.

The Atlanta Falcons are going into the year with Desmond Ridder under center. A third-round pick in 2022, Ridder played in four games last year, recording 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt across a small sample of 115 pass attempts. Ridder's play will likely go a long way toward determining how Atlanta fares in 2023, and it's anyone's guess how he'll do.

With that said, the Falcons aren't a bad situation for a young passer. Between Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, the weapons are there, and the Falcons' O-Line checks in seventh by PFF's rankings. This offense could surprise if Ridder is ready to rock.

Atlanta also made plenty of moves to improve on the other side of the ball, something that was needed after the Falcons' defense surrendered the seventh-most yards per play a year ago (5.7), including the fourth-highest net yards per pass attempt (6.8). The Falcons signed Jessie Bates to a big-money deal while prying away the aforementioned Onyemata and Elliss from the Saints. They've still got Grady Jarrett on the interior and A.J. Terrell out wide, so we could see the Falcons' D make a jump this fall.

Atlanta is aided by getting to face the easiest schedule by 2023 win totals.

Despite a middling win total of 8.5, Atlanta is +210 to win the division and nearly even money to make the playoffs (+112).

Carolina Panthers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5 (-120 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +160
Odds to Win the NFC South: +360
Odds to Win the NFC: +3000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +6000 (6th-worst)

How good will Bryce Young be in Year 1? It's a big ask for a rookie quarterback to guide a team to the playoffs, but the Carolina Panthers can make some noise even if the 2023 first overall pick is just OK.

Carolina -- who has the sixth-easiest schedule this year going by 2023 win totals -- nearly won the division last season but was mostly a meh team, going 7-10 with a -27 point differential. The Panthers were roughly league-average on defense, giving up 5.4 yards per play, which ranked 16th, but in Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn, Carolina has top-end talent at two critical positions. The offseason additions of free agents Vonn Bell and Shy Tuttle should help.

Offensively, Carolina's O-Line checks in 16th by PFF's rankings, so they should be decent up front. But everywhere else on O is a question mark, especially in terms of weapons for Young. The Panthers dealt away their top wideout from last year, D.J. Moore, in the trade that got them the first pick, and while free-agent signings D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders and Hayden Hurst were all nice transactions, they don't turn this unit into the 1999 Rams, either.

Overall, there are some pieces in place for Carolina to be solid in 2023, and you can't rule out anyone in this division. If Young starts quickly and his pairing with Frank Reich is a smash hit, Carolina will be a threat. But they're likely a year away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5 (-142 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +360
Odds to Win the NFC South: +750
Odds to Win the NFC: +4000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +7500 (4th-worst)

Things can change quickly in the NFL. A year ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a legit Super Bowl contender with the GOAT at quarterback. Now, they're tied for the second-lowest win total in the league and are going into camp with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield fighting for the QB job.

The Buccaneers also drew the short straw schedule-wise due to coming in first in the division last season. The other three NFC South teams have among the six easiest schedules by 2023 win totals, but Tampa actually has the 13th-hardest slate.

Oddsmakers clearly don't like the Bucs -- at all. They are listed at +750 to win the division, which is a really big number for a division that could see the winner go under .500.

Mayfield had some moments with the Los Angeles Rams last year, but he ended 2022 ranked dead last in QBR (24.5) among the 33 qualified signal-callers. He was also 30th in both adjusted yards per attempt (6.0) and passer rating (79.0). Trask is a former second-round pick who has attempted all of nine passes through two years. In short, it seems like the Bucs have one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL, which is exactly why their win total is at 6.5.

Everywhere outside of QB, Tampa Bay should be good enough. The O-Line checks in 14th, per PFF. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a productive one-two pairing at receiver, and the defense permitted the eighth-fewest yards per play a campaign ago (5.1), including the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.6).

If Trask or Mayfield can generate just league-average production under center, the Bucs have a chance to challenge for another NFC South crown, but that is likely a big if.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.