NFC North Betting: The Division Is Wide Open

With the draft completed and training camps a ways away, this is a rare downtime for the NFL, but that doesn't mean we have to take a break from the action.

Via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can dive into the futures market. In addition to having NFL division winner odds, FanDuel Sportsbook also has NFL win totals and odds to make the NFL playoffs for all 32 teams.

Let's take a look at the NFC North.

Detroit Lions 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-122 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -170
Odds to Win the NFC North: +145
Odds to Win the NFC: +900
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2200 (9th-best)

Rarely in the last -- I don't know -- 30 years have we gone into a season with legit optimism about the Detroit Lions, but there are reasons to be on the bandwagon in 2023. Oddsmakers agree, listing Detroit as the division favorite, although the Lions' +145 odds to win the NFC North are the worst odds for any of the division favorites across the NFL.

The Lions were elite offensively last season, ranking fifth in yards per play (5.9), and they're spearheaded by an offensive line that PFF ranks as the league's fifth-best coming into 2023. Jared Goff finished in the top 10 in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (fourth), QBR (fifth) and QB rating (seventh). Detroit then went out and drafted a running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) and tight end (Sam LaPorta) 12th and 34th, respectively, in the 2023 NFL Draft. In short, offense shouldn't be an issue in 2023.

Defense, though, could be a big problem. The Lions struggled mightly on D a year ago, allowing the most yards per play (6.2). With a better defense, Detroit probably makes the postseason last year, and you could argue that taking two offensive skill-position players early in the draft wasn't a great allocation of resources. The Lions, however, did address the defense in free agency, bringing in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton -- two defensive backs who should help fill a major need.

All in all, the time is now for this Lions team. With Aaron Rodgers gone and the division wide open, the Lions have a great chance to make the postseason -- something they're listed at -170 to do -- and are plenty capable of getting their first playoff win since 1991.

Minnesota Vikings 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5 (-142 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +104
Odds to Win the NFC North: +270
Odds to Win the NFC: +1400
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +3500 (14th-best)

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off maybe the flukiest 13-win season in the history of the NFL.

Despite a 13-4 record, the Vikings finished with a point differential of -3. The Lions, who won four fewer games than the Vikes did, had a +26 point differential. Minnesota was the only team to win 10-plus games and post a negative point differential. Given their point differential, Minnesota's Pythagorean win total -- or expected win total -- was just 8.4.

Oddsmakers, obviously, know this, and that's why the Vikings' win total is set at 8.5. However, despite all those negatives, there's -142 juice on the over on that win total, and if the Vikings can win nine games, that might be enough to take the NFC North.

One thing we know for sure -- Minnesota has an unbelievable weapon at receiver in Justin Jefferson. For the second straight year, Jefferson led all wideouts in yards per touch (13.9), and he also paced the league in catches (128) and yards (1,809). He should be in store for another big year, and the Vikings' passing game has other solid pieces in T.J. Hockenson and first-round rookie Jordan Addison.

The issues are on the other side of the ball.

After years of having a solid defense, Minnesota struggled on D in 2022, giving up the fourth-most yards per play (5.9) and third-most net yards per pass attempt (6.9). On top of that, Minnesota lost defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, corner Patrick Peterson and linebacker Eric Kendricks in free agency. They took a defensive player with three of their first four picks in the draft, but none of them were selected in the first two rounds.

If Minnesota's defense can improve in Year 1 under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, that would go a long way toward helping the Vikes win back-to-back NFC North crowns.

Green Bay Packers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5 (-122 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +138
Odds to Win the NFC North: +350
Odds to Win the NFC: +1800
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4000 (16th-best)

At the risk of over-simplifying things, the Green Bay Packers' fortunes mostly come down to how Jordan Love fares in his first year as the starter. He's started one game and thrown 83 career passes, so it's anyone's guess how he'll do.

Taking over for Rodgers, Love has insanely large shoes to fill, but he's a first-round draft pick walking into a pretty good situation.

PFF rated the Packers' offensive line as the third-best unit in 2022, and wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both showed glimpses of potential last year as rookies -- especially Watson, who scored seven times over a blistering four-game run in the middle of the year. The Pack also added receiver Jayden Reed and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in Rounds 2 and 3 of the draft. All of the pass-game weapons should pair well with the running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Defensively, the Packers struggled mightily, giving up the sixth-most yards per play (5.8). They were in the bottom seven in yards per play allowed for both the run and the pass.

Green Bay hasn't spent more than $4 million on any free-agent signing so far this offseason, so outside of their additions via the draft -- as well as the notable losses of Allen Lazard and Jarran Reed in free agency -- Green Bay is mostly running it back with Love under center instead of Rodgers.

If Love hits the ground running, the Packers could be a serious threat in the NFC North, but if Love is just decent -- which is a realistic expectation for a first-year starter -- Green Bay will probably need a lot of other things to go right to win the division.

Chicago Bears 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5 (-112 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +172
Odds to Win the NFC North: +420
Odds to Win the NFC: +2500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +6000 (9th-worst)

It feels weird to say this about a team that won only three games last year, none of which came after Week 7, but I'm kind of into the Chicago Bears at their +420 odds to win the division.

For starters, the Bears endured some bad luck in 2022 as they performed better than a three-win team, notching an expected win total of 5.2.

And then the Bears went biiiig this offseason. Flush with cap space, Chicago went on a spending spree, signing linebacker Tremaine Edwards, guard Nate Davis, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebacker T.J. Edwards to big deals while also swinging a trade to land receiver D.J. Moore.

Splashing a lot of cash in free agency doesn't always lead to wins, but the Bears needed to make a bunch of additions because they had a lot of holes. On defense, Chicago permitted the most net yards per pass attempt (7.4). On offense, the Bears sorely lacked playmakers out wide. They've addressed some of those needs.

Justin Fields had a historically great season as a runner in 2022, rushing for 1,143 yards and 8 scores and ranking seventh in the league in rushing (among all players). But the jury is still out on him as a passer. Among qualified signal-callers, Fields checked in 23rd in adjusted yards per attempt (6.6) and put up the 2nd-highest interception rate (3.5%). He'll likely need to take a step forward through the air if the Bears are to make a jump.

There's some intriguing upside with this Bears team, one that should benefit from the eighth-easiest schedule, per 2023 win totals. A lot of Chicago's appeal revolves around Fields being able to improve as a passer, but even if he makes just minimal improvements, Chicago can push for a playoff berth if their offseason additions make a meaningful impact, which has me interested in their +172 odds to make the playoffs in addition to their outright division title odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.