The New York Mets made considerably less noise this offseason than they had in the few years prior.

They seem to be taking a step back and building in a different way than in 2023, when they entered the season with baseball's highest payroll. They only have the fourth-highest on their active roster this season.

What are the Mets' odds to win the World Series, per the World Series odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Mets are listed at +5000 to win the World Series, making them a huge long shot. Is there any reason to be optimistic this season?

Let's take a look at what we can expect from the Mets in 2024.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mets World Series Odds

• Odds to Win the World Series: +5000 (15th)

Mets Betting Odds

• Win Total: 81.5 (16th)
• Odds to Make Playoffs: +186 (tied 16th-best)
• Odds to Win the NL East: +1200 (3rd-best)
• Odds to Reach NLCS: +1100 (8th-best)
• Odds to Win the National League: +2100 (7th-best)

Mets Projections

nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

• nERD: 0.01 (15th)
• Wins: 80 (18th)
• Runs Per Game: 4.66 (16th)
• Runs Allowed Per Game: 4.70 (20th)
• Run Differential: -7 (18th)

Mets Analysis

The Mets finished 75-87 in 2023, which was hugely disappointing given the talent on their roster. Changes were made at multiple levels of the organization. Buck Showalter was let go as manager, and Billy Eppler resigned as general manager.

In steps Carlos Mendoza, who was last employed by the crosstown rival New York Yankees, to be the manager. At age 44, he certainly will bring a fresher approach to modern baseball than 67-year-old Showalter, who began managing in the 1980s.

They shed a lot of that talent at last season's trade deadline and didn't go big-game hunting again this winter. Part of the reason was because they retained over $49 million in salary while also accruing the highest luxury tax penalty the league has ever seen. This may have led to the Mets having to go with a new strategy.

The Mets rebuilt their pitching staff through some free agent signings. They added Sean Manaea, who was fairly solid with the San Francisco Giants in 2023 with a 4.18 expected ERA (xERA) and a 25.7% strikeout rate. They also signed Luis Severino in the hopes that he can recapture some of the form before his long list of injuries.

Kodai Senga showed promise in his first season in MLB with his 29.1% strikeout rate. He'll need to cut back on the walks, however, as it's tough to be an elite pitcher when you offer free passes at an 11.1% clip.

The projection of 20th in runs allowed per game isn't too promising, but if Severino turns back the years and Senga finds more control, that could improve.

The offense didn't see many additions outside of Harrison Bader. Where they could improve is players hitting as well as they did in 2022. Jeff McNeil is one example; in 2023 his weighted runs created + (wRC+) fell from 141 to 100. Pete Alonso is another; his wRC+ went from 141 to 121.

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are clearly the class of the NL East, and the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals are projected to be two of the weaker teams in the NL this season. That leaves the Mets somewhere in the middle of this division and likely needing a wild card spot to make the playoffs.

The Mets might have more top-end talent than some of the other teams that are around them in the odds, but they are a long shot for a reason.

Every Team's Odds to Win the World Series

• Los Angeles Dodgers (+320)
• Atlanta Braves (+450)
• Houston Astros (+700)
• New York Yankees (+800)
• Texas Rangers (+1400)
• Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
• Baltimore Orioles (+1500)
• Minnesota Twins (+2000)
• Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
• Seattle Mariners (+2000)
• St. Louis Cardinals (+3200)
• Tampa Bay Rays (+3300)
• Chicago Cubs (+3500)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000)
• New York Mets (+5000)
• Boston Red Sox (+5000)
• Cincinnati Reds (+5500)
• San Diego Padres (+6000)
• Detroit Tigers (+6000)
• San Francisco Giants (+6500)
• Cleveland Guardians (+7500)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+8500)
• Miami Marlins (+9000)
• Kansas City Royals (+15000)
• Los Angeles Angels (+18000)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+20000)
• Washington Nationals +25000)
• Chicago White Sox (+25000)
• Oakland Athletics (+50000)
• Colorado Rockies (+50000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.