NCAA Basketball Betting: Can Anyone Challenge Purdue in the Big 10?
The 2023-24 men's college basketball season is drawing near, and FanDuel Sportsbook has college basketball conference betting odds for several leagues.
Here is how they look for the Big Ten's regular-season winner.
Purdue Boilermakers (+160)
To no one's surprise, the Purdue Boilermakers are the favorite to win the Big Ten this season.
Purdue won the regular season and conference tournament last year, finishing 15-5 in the conference and 29-6 overall en route to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. No other team in the Big Ten had more than 12 wins conference wins in 2022-23.
The Boilermakers return 83.8% of their minutes from last season, per BartTorvik. Not only is that the second-highest mark in the conference, it's the 11th-highest among all 363 Division-I programs. They return all five starters and seven of their top-eight scorers.
Purdue's success centered around an offense that ranked 12th in the country in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency (117.7). In Big Ten play, they averaged the fifth-most points (70.9) and second-most assists (15.3) per game.
They were good on the defensive end, as well, ranking 24th nationwide in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.5). They were especially stout in conference play -- where they held opponents to the second-fewest points per game (64.1) in the Big Ten.
Perhaps their biggest strength came on the glass. Their conference-leading average rebounding margin of +10.1 bested the next-closest team by 7.0 rebounds per game. Purdue collected 11.8 offensive rebounds per game (37.9% offensive rebound rate) and led the Big Ten with a 23.6% defensive rebound rate.
It's easy to see why they dominate the glass. Reigning National Player of the Year and preseason All-American Zach Edey led the Big Ten with 22.3 points and 12.9 rebounds per game last season. The 7'4" center was named the Big Ten preseason Player of the Year and is the overwhelming favorite (+155) to win the Wooden Award, per the Wooden Award odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Purdue slots in at first overall in both KenPom and BartTorvik's preseason projections.
Michigan State Spartans (+290)
The Michigan State Spartans are the only other team in the Big Ten with odds shorter than +850 to win the conference.
Michigan State returns 78.1% of their minutes and four starters from last year's Sweet 16 run. That includes All-Big Ten Second-Teamer Tyson Walker (14.8 points) and Third-Teamer A.J. Hoggard (5.9 assists), both of whom were named to the Preseason All-Big Ten Team.
In addition to those returning players, the Spartans enter with a top-five recruiting class, per 247Sports. Five-star center Xavier Booker headlines a trio of top-50 recruits.
The Spartans ended the 2022-23 season slotted No. 26 in KenPom's final ratings -- 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency (114.2) and 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.6).
Despite a strong finish to last season, Michigan State went just 11-8 in Big Ten play and 21-13 overall.
In conference play, the Spartans averaged the sixth-most points (69.8) and gave up the sixth-fewest points (67.5). They were dominant from beyond the arc, however, where they led the Big Ten in three-point percentage (42%) and held opponents to the lowest percentage from deep (31%).
Michigan State was also a strong rebounding team, finishing with the fourth-highest rebound margin (+2.6) in conference play.
They enter the season with their highest preseason ranking (No. 4) since the 2019-2020 campaign.
On KenPom, Michigan State comes in at No. 13. They're No. 8 on BartTorvik.
Maryland Terrapins (+850)
Maryland's odds may be far off those of the top two, but they're the only other Big Ten team inside +1000.
The Terrapins return three starters but only 52.5% of last year's minutes (eighth in the Big Ten).
Among those, All-Big Ten Second-Team guard Jahmir Young (15.8 points) and Honorable Mention forward Julian Reese (11.4 points, 7.4 rebounds) were named to the preseason All-Conference team. They're joined by fifth-year senior Donta Scott (11.3 points).
Maryland does have a few impact newcomers. Freshman guard DeShawn Harris-Smith was 247Sports' No. 27 overall recruit, while transfer Jordan Geronimo was a three-year rotation piece for Indiana.
Last year, Maryland went 11-9 in Big Ten play en route to a 22-13 overall record and a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. They finished No. 23 overall in KenPom, ranking 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency (113.5) and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.6).
In conference play, the Terrapins averaged the fifth-fewest points (67.5) but also gave up the third-fewest points (63.4) per game.
They enter the season outside the AP Poll's Top 25, but the Terps sit 22nd in KenPom and 30th in BartTorvik's preseason projections.
The Rest
Of the rest of the pack, Illinois (19th in KenPom, 29th at BartTorvik, and 25th in the AP Poll) appears to have the best shot to win the conference. They have the fourth-shortest odds, at +1100.
After that, Ohio State, Indiana, and Wisconsin file in at +1500.
Wisconsin projects well on KenPom (No. 20) and decently at BartTorvik (No. 32). Indiana is down at No. 49 on KenPom, but BartTorvik gives them the third-best chance to win at least a share of the conference title (8.3%).
No other team has shorter than +2500 odds to win the conference.
BartTorvik gives Northwestern the sixth-best odds to win a share (7.3%), but they carry the ninth-shortest odds (+3000).
It's a two-team race at the top, but the Big Ten has a way of beating itself up. Don't be shocked to see some variance as the season progresses.
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