NBA Southeast Division Best Bets: Wizards' Rebuild Spell Fizzles, Magic Fueled By Emerging Core
Predicting NBA win totals is among the most popular future bets. With odds available for all 30 teams, there are bound to be terrific wagers available. Let's break down win totals by division, focusing today on the Eastern Conference's Southeast Division.
The Southeast was easily the weakest division in the East last season. The Miami Heat were the only team to finish above .500 and needed the Play-In Tournament to earn a postseason berth. Of course, the Heat represented the Southeast with an improbable run to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed. However, the rest of the division lacked.
The Atlanta Hawks had heightened expectations after landing Dejounte Murray but finished with a 41-41 regular-season record. Atlanta surprised by pushing the Boston Celtics to six games in the first round of the playoffs. Still, the Hawks had a disappointing regular season, leading to a weak seed for the playoffs.
The Washington Wizards, Orlando Magic, and Charlotte Hornets finished with losing records in what feels like their endless "rebuilding" phases.
The Heat are the clear leader of the clubhouse when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA divisional odds (-200). Can the Southeast Division improve in the upcoming season? Several teams in the division have intriguing win total bets.
Washington Wizards Under 24.5 Wins (-112)
The Wizards have finished with a losing record in five consecutive seasons and have not eclipsed 35 wins during the five-year stretch. Washington enjoyed some success under coach Scott Brooks from 2016-21, earning three playoff appearances. Wes Unseld Jr. took over in 2021 and has led the Wiz to back-to-back 35-47 seasons.
Of course, Washington's top storylines of the offseason was trading Bradley Beal, the three-time All-Star, to the Phoenix Suns, and Kristaps Porzingis also went to the Celtics. Beal (30.0%) and Porzingis (28.0%) combined for over 50% of the Wizards' usage last season. Washington's play style will completely shift likely making Kyle Kuzma and the newly-acquired Jordan Poole the main contributors.
Beal and Porzingis were likely glad to relocate as they will finally be a part of winning cultures. The Suns (+550) and Celtics (+500) are among the top three favorites when looking at NBA Finals odds.
However, the Wizards just lost their cornerstone player, Beal, and a lethal scorer in Porzingis. As a result, Washington's win total has plummeted to 24.5 -- the lowest available number. I like the under since this roster is full of flaws with alarming inefficiencies, particularly on the offensive end.
Scoring Efficiency Not in the Spell Book
Beal and Porzingis each averaged 23.2 points per game (PPG) last season. Replacing this kind of production is no easy task; both players were among Washington's top-three in offensive rating.
This was not a great offense by any stretch, ranking 22nd in offensive rating. What happens when you take away perhaps the top contributors on this unit? It spells trouble.
Fortunately, Kyle Kuzma is back following his career-best season with 21.2 PPG and 7.2 rebounds per game (RPG). Kuzma was also second on the team in usage rate (28.5%).
Ultimately, the Wizards' success will likely fall on their guards and wings. Poole seems poised for big numbers since his shot attempts will surely increase in Washington. He flashed massive scoring potential with the Golden State Warriors. Among qualifying players, Poole finished second in Golden State's usage rate last season. His 29.5% wasn't far behind Stephen Curry at 30.9%. This is a pretty eye-opening stat for someone who started in only 43 games.
Poole could be poised for taking on a large role. However, this could be a huge blow to the Wiz's efficiency. The former Michigan Wolverines guard had a 57.3% true shooting percentage (TS%), which ranked 249th n the NBA. Poole also ranked last among qualifying players on Golden State with a 51.4% effective field goal percentage (eFG%). More shots for Poole could drastically change Washington's efficiency.
The supporting pieces around Kuzma and Poole could determine the offense's ceiling. Tyus Jones and Corey Kispert are potential X-factors on the unit.
Jones was one of the Association's top backup point guards last season. He got some run with starters due to the indefinite suspension of Ja Morant. Jones proved his worth in 22 starts, averaging 16.4 PPG and 8.1 assists per game (APG) as a starter.
Jones was Washington's most notable acquisition in the Porzingis deal, but his potential production as a full-time starter is still an unknown. He has yet to start in more than 23 games during his eight-year career. Jones' efficiency could use some work; he finished with a 52.3 eFG% when the league average of 54.5%. Jones' offensive rating was 115.5, compared the league average of 114.8. What's the bottom line? The jury is still out on if Jones will be a quality starting point guard.
Kispert's leap in his second season went under the radar. In his rookie campaign in the 2021-22 season, the former Gonzaga Bulldog shot 35.0% on three-pointers. Kispert's shooting from beyond the arc spiked to 42.4% in the 2022-23 season, which ranked ninth in the NBA. The third-year wing averaged only 11.1 PPG, though. Kispert will be looking to increase his scoring average.
While the potential of the Wizards' offense is certainly there, uncertainty is a running theme. We don't know if Poole can be an efficient top scorer. We don't know if Jones will be a quality starter and if Kispert can improve his scoring average. I have a hard time believing in this offense, so I'm backing the under.
Orlando Magic Over 36.5 Wins (-114)
The Magic had a 34-48 record last season, which was their best finish since the 2018-19 season. Orlando has only one winning season since 2013. However, the Magic seem to be finally headed in the right direction.
Paolo Banchero emerged as the franchise's top player in his rookie season, totaling 20.0 PPG and 6.9 RPG while shooting 42.7% from the field. Banchero led the Rookie of the Year race from start to finish, becoming the third Magic player to win the award. The others were Shaquille O'Neal in 1992-93 and Mike Miller in 2000-01.
Franz Wagner also increased his production in his second season; he went from 15.2 to 18.6 PPG and 46.8% to 48.5%. Wendell Carter Jr. enjoyed another solid season with 15.2 PPG and 8.7 RPG, and Markelle Fultz played in 60 games for the first time since 2019-20 while averaging a career-high 14.0 PPG. Cole Anthony averaged double-digit points (13.0 PPG) for the third consecutive season.
Banchero (20), Wagner (22), Carter (24), Fultz (25), and Anthony (23) are all 25 or younger. Orlando could be an emerging team when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds. They're +180 to make the postseason.
Top Dog, Improving Defense Lead the Charge
Banchero is a clear building block, quickly proving the potential become one of the NBA's stars in the East. His 27.9% usage rate led the team and ranked 21st in the league overall. This was also the highest usage rate for a Rookie of the Year winner since Luka Doncic in the 2018-19 season (30.4%).
The 6-foot-10 forward will likely improve his stat totals in his second season. We know the shot attempts will certainly be there due to his high usage rate in the 2022-23 season. Banchero could be focused on improving his efficiency; his marks of a 46.3 eFG% and 29.8% on three-pointers were underwhelming to say the least.
It's not like Banchero is incapable of being an efficient scorer, though. In fact, he boasted a 52.0 eFG% in his sole season in college. We know that the NBA is a completely different game -- especially when Banchero had a size advantage at the collegiate level.
Still, Banchero has showcased his ability to finish through contact and cash in mid-range jump shots. He reached 30 points on different six occasions last season, shooting a combined 49.2%. Banchero is certainly capable of posting big numbers while staying efficient.
Paolo Banchero dropped his fourth 30+ point game of the season Thursday night 🔥
— NBA (@NBA) January 6, 2023
30 PTS
9 REB
3 AST pic.twitter.com/Y0iJJpiSMm
Possessing an alpha dog like Banchero helps the Magic's trajectory, but don't sleep on the defense. After finishing 26th in defensive rating in the 2020-21 season, the defense has steadily improved. It ranked 19th in rating in 2021-22 and 18th last season.
Wagner (111.8), Jalen Suggs (112.4), and Carter (113.5) posted solid defensive ratings last season. Suggs (108.6) and Carter (109.2) also finished with good ratings in the 2021-22 season. These are solid defensive pieces that can continue to fuel an improving unit.
Orlando's first-round rookie Anthony Black should add to the team's defensive versatility. Black was drafted with the sixth pick as one of the classes' top defensive prospects. Black had terrific on-ball defense with the Arkansas Razorbacks thanks to his wingspan (6'8") and lateral quickness. Plus, Black adds a playmaking element to an offense with emerging scorers.
The defense has yet to become an above-average unit. Black could drive a notable improvement in the 2023-24 season, though. Suggs and Black are versatile defensive guards, which should give the unit plenty of flexibility.
This franchise finally has a bright future -- something we haven't said in years. Orlando's roster is beginning to take shape with versatile youngsters led by Banchero and Wagner. After reaching 34 wins last season, totaling three more wins could be no sweat for the Magic. They improved their roster with the additions of Black, Jett Howard, and Joe Ingles. Banchero and Wagner are on upward trajectories, leading an exciting frontcourt. Orlando could be one of the few overachieving teams in the Southeast Division.
Do you think you know which NBA teams will succeed or falter this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds market to bet any team's win total with America's Number One Sportsbook.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.