NBA Pacific Division Best Bets: Lakers Look to Keep Rolling, Warriors in Trouble?
ipperdPredicting NBA win totals is among the most popular future bets. With odds available for all 30 teams, there are bound to be terrific wagers available. Let's break down win totals by division, focusing today on the Western Conference's Pacific Division.
Some would argue the Pacific is the toughest division in basketball. All five teams made the Western Conference playoffs last season, and the Los Angeles Lakers represented the division in the conference finals.
This is an odd division where four of the five teams are squarely in "win-now" mode with stars well over 30 years old. The Phoenix Suns went all-in with a super team in the offseason, which is why they sit +170 as the favorites to win the division, per the NBA divisional odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Lakers, 2022 NBA Champion Golden State Warriors, and Los Angeles Clippers are in hot pursuit with former champions all across their rosters.
However, it was the youthful Sacramento Kings that captured this division despite longshot odds (+40000) before the 2022-23 season started. That should teach us that any outcome is possible here.
Los Angeles Lakers to Win the Division (+370)
This division ended so clustered because the Kings and Suns got off to red-hot starts, but the Lakers and Clippers rallied in the second half to have the entire division finish within five games of each other.
However, the Lake Show completely retooled their roster to spark that rally, and to me, it's hard to not favor them to win this division given the Suns' projected growing pains as they only return six members from last year's active roster, and only Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are major contributors among them.
After the trade deadline last year, the Lakers had a +4.4 net rating, which was second in the conference to only the Warriors, and we'll get to their changes and issues. This was a legitimate team that kept all of its key components -- namely Austin Reaves, D'Angelo Russell, and Rui Hachimura -- while adding contributors like Taurean Prince and Christian Wood to help their depth in the regular season as L.A.'s star duo, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, will need rest.
This division was close overall last year, but the Lakers were by far its best team after the deadline. I'd consider them co-favorites with Phoenix myself, so over a three-to-one comeback on them to win the division is tremendous value.
LA Clippers to Win 45+ Games (-150)
With the smallest fanbase and minimal true offseason additions, the Clippers aren't getting much attention, but this team has massive potential with how well Russell Westbrook played after coming over from the Lakers at the deadline.
Westbrook actually was the lone member of their key trio active in last year's playoffs. He averaged a phenomenal 23.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game against Phoenix in the postseason, and the key takeaway from that is that Westbrook -- perpetually available throughout his entire career -- can actually support this offense when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George inevitably miss time.
L.A. also made an under-the-radar moves to help their studs, adding high-flying lob threat Kenyon Martin Jr. from the Houston Rockets. They'll also get Norman Powell back from a groin injury that cost him plenty of 2022-23, and Mason Plumlee now provides depth behind Ivica Zubac when the team got roasted by bigs when Zubac was unavailable.
The Clippers won 44 games a year ago when ramping Leonard up to speed, finishing the year without George, and only having Westbrook for 21 games. Even with -150 odds, they're a tremendous bet to eclipse last year's win total and make the playoffs.
Golden State Warriors to Miss the Playoffs (+300)
The odds that this division has a total monopoly on the Western Conference again are pretty low. I'd peg both the Kings -- who finished 24th in defensive rating (116.0) -- and Warriors are the teams I believe will miss the playoffs, and the latter is likely more surprising to many.
Golden State's recent timeline certainly hasn't been linear, and as their core ages, it should only get harder and harder to navigate injuries with the league's worst salary cap situation. Now, they swapped out Jordan Poole -- who occupied a team-best 34.1% usage rate with Stephen Curry off the floor -- for another aging veteran, Chris Paul. Paul's steady decline in availability resulted in just 59 games played last season.
Curry, Paul, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all at least 33 years old, and it's not hard to imagine what a significant layoff for a couple of them would look like. This, after all, was a Warriors squad that won 54 total games in two years between 2019 and 2021 before their miraculous 2022 resurgence to win it all.
This market concerns just the final eight teams that make it through the NBA's play-in tournament. In a loaded conference, I've got the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Lakers, Suns, Minnesota Timberwolves, and aforementioned Clippers pegged with at least 60.0% probability to win at least 45 games.
That leaves the Dubs vying with the Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Dallas Mavericks for the final two spots in the West, and there shouldn't be three-to-one odds that they're on the outside looking in after what we saw two seasons ago.
Do you think you know which NBA teams will succeed or falter this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds market to bet any team's win total with America's Number One Sportsbook.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.