NBA MVP Betting: Will Nikola Jokic Win His Third MVP?

While Nikola Jokic failed to capture his third consecutive MVP last season, he wasn't far off.

After winning the award in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists en route to a second-place finish in 2022-23. He got the last laugh, however, taking home an NBA Championship and Finals MVP trophy when it was all said and done.

Even after finishing second last season, Jokic enters 2023-24 as the odds-on favorite to take home his third Michael Jordan MVP Trophy, listed at +430 odds.

The question is: what will it take for Nikola Jokic to win the MVP in 2023-24?

Odds as of October 12th, 12:00 p.m. ET.

All lines courtesy of the NBA Awards Odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

2022-23 Rewind

Nikola Jokic saw a slight dip in his counting stats last season compared to his two MVP years.

• 2020-21: 72 games, 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 8.4 assists
• 2021-22: 74 games, 27.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists
• 2022-23: 69 games, 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists

Despite that, Jokic's underlying numbers show that he was just as effective last year as the two seasons prior.

For one, Jokic was more efficient than ever. He set career highs in true shooting percentage (70.1%) and plus/minus per 100 possessions (+12.0) while simultaneously upping his assist rate (46.6%).

Jokic again led the league in triple-doubles (29), doubling up the next-closest player, Domantas Sabonis (14).

Perhaps the only thing holding Jokic back from winning his third consecutive MVP last season was a drop in usage (from 31.9% to 27.2%), but that didn't stop him from leading the league in PER (31.5), win shares (14.9), and Value over Replacement Player (8.8 VORP) for the third consecutive season.

He did that while willing his Denver Nuggets to the Western Conference's No. 1 seed and a championship.

However, Jokic didn't exactly show out in head-to-head matchups against the two players to receive first-place votes, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He faced them each once, losing to Embiid, 126-119, but beating Giannis, 129-106.

Against Embiid, Jokic finished with 24 points (8-12 shooting), 8 rebounds, and 9 assists. Embiid, meanwhile, torched Jokic's Nuggets for 47 points (18-31 shooting), 18 rebounds, and 5 assists.

Jokic played better against Giannis, finishing with 31 points (10-20 shooting), 6 rebounds, and 11 assists. That didn't stop Giannis from having a strong game himself, racking up 31 points (13-22 shooting), 9 rebounds, and 4 assists.

Personally, I take head-to-head, regular-season matchups with a grain of salt. But for NBA voters, those head-to-head matchups can be a determining factor when the margins between MVP candidates are so thin.

It also didn't help that Jokic had won two consecutive MVPs in 2020-21 and 2021-22. For better or worse, voters don't tend to give players three MVPs in a row. It's only happened three times in MVP history -- most recently between 1983-86 with Larry Bird. In the modern era, voter fatigue is a real factor.

While that may have played a role in his second-place MVP finish last year, he'll (presumably) have a clean slate in that department this season.

Championship Hangover

The biggest thing that could hurt Jokic's regular season MVP chances in 2023-24 is a championship hangover.

Players coming off a Finals MVP have not fared well in regular season MVP voting the following season. Here's a look at how Finals MVPs performed the year after after winning the Larry O'Brien Trophy (since 2010).

Since 2010, only one reigning Finals MVP has won the regular season MVP in the following season: LeBron James in the 2012-13 campaign.

In fact, only six of the last 13 Finals MVPs finished in the top five of MVP voting the next season.

We could also see a dropoff from Denver as a whole. The last team to have a better regular season record the year after winning the championship was the 2016 Golden State Warriors.

In a jam-packed Western Conference, the Nuggets will need to keep their foot on the gas for most of the year. However, despite having the second-shortest odds (+260) to grab the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Denver take a slight step back.

That hasn't stopped Jokic from winning MVP before (he did so when Denver was the No. 6 seed back in 2021-22), but when the margins are this thin, team performance certainly plays a factor in award voting.

2023-24 MVP Outlook

At the end of the day, Jokic is the MVP favorite for a reason. For the past three campaigns, Jokic has been the single most valuable player in the NBA from a Box Plus/Minus perspective, and I'm not expecting that to change this year.

The most impactful thing Jokic could do to bolster his MVP chances this season would be to score more. Obviously, his passing plays a huge role in Denver's success, but his drop in scoring last year likely crippled his chances of winning the MVP.

But we saw Jokic shoulder a bigger scoring load in the postseason last year when he upped his per-game numbers to 30.0 points per night. Even if Jokic has something of a championship hangover to begin the season, Denver's roster makeup is going to make it hard for them to win if he doesn't score more.

All five starters are back, but the Nuggets lost some key reserves. Bruce Brown Jr. (11.5 points per game) and Jeff Green (7.8) are both gone, and it isn't clear who's going to take on their combined 15.2 shots per game.

The Joker attempted only 14.8 shots per game last year, but he averaged 17.7 and 18.0 shots the previous two seasons.

Perhaps we see Jokic's scoring numbers return to the 26 to 27 per game mark he was at from 2020-22. Or, maybe he continues to up his assist rate, something he's done each of the past four years.

But maybe -- just maybe -- Jokic does both. After watching Jokic dominate the playoffs, it wouldn't shock anyone to see him come out and replicate the 30-13-9 line he averaged last postseason.

Even at +430 odds, Nikola Jokic is one of the better values on the board and is easily the safest MVP candidate you'll find.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.