NBA MVP Betting: Is It Finally Luka Doncic's Time?

The NBA MVP race rarely goes as expected.

The 82-game regular season is a grind that wears and tears on players. A team may not live up to expectations and fail to meet their projected win total, or perhaps an MVP contender misses a few games. What if a team acquires another star player? This could take away from an MVP contender's workload. If you lack eye-popping stats, good luck winning the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.

Any of these setbacks can thwart an MVP campaign.

The MVP race usually lives up to the hype, though, as unexpected players regularly win the award. No, we are not talking about longshots, but the preseason favorite rarely wins. In fact, the preseason MVP favorite has won the award just once over the previous five years — Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season.

Luka Doncic has been a notable player in the MVP race for several years. However, the Slovenian phenom has yet to grasp the hardware. Doncic was the preseason MVP favorite ahead of the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. He was also tabbed as the second choice prior to the 2020-21 season.

Ahead of the 2023-24 season, FanDuel Sportsbook has Doncic with the third-shortest odds to win NBA MVP (+650). His preseason MVP odds have not been this high since 2019-20, so he could prove to be a terrific value bet. Doncic is a stat-sheet stuffer and has lived in the MVP running.

Will Doncic finally win the MVP award this season? Let's dig in.

The New Workout Plan

The Dallas Mavericks acquired Doncic with a pick swap in the 2018 NBA Draft. Since making his Mavs debut, Doncic has taken the league by storm. The 24-year-old guard could be rapidly approaching the coveted "best player on the planet" title. An MVP award would certainly be a notch that could get Doncic over the hump.

With five seasons under his belt, Doncic is already smashing records. Last season, he became the first NBA player to total at least 250 points, 50 rebounds, and 50 assists over a five-game period. Doncic is the only Maverick to record a triple-double in the playoffs. He is the only player to reach 275 points, 75 assists, and 75 rebounds in his first nine playoff games. We could go on and on, but you get the point; Doncic is a baller.

However, Doncic's longevity is a clear concern for winning MVP. His 37.5% usage rate finished second in the Association last season. Of course, this led to gaudy stats as Doncic averaged a career-high 32.4 points paired with 8.0 assists and 8.6 rebounds. However, his regular-season production dropped following the All-Star break.

Prior to the break, Doncic played in 50 of 60 games, averaging 33.3 points, 8.1 assists, and 8.8 rebounds while shooting 50.5% from the field. Following the All-Star festivities, he participated in 16 of 22 games while recording 29.5 points, 7.6 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game. Doncic's field goal percentage during the span also dropped to 46.6%.

Of course, there is another factor. On February 6th of last season, the Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving in a trade with Brooklyn Nets. We'll get to Kyrie's individual impact on Luka's stats, but Doncic's own actions indicate that he likely doesn't believe that was the reason for a drop-off.

There's been a clear emphasis on Doncic's offseason training. In late July, reports emerged that the Mavericks wanted Doncic to improve his conditioning. It seems the four-time All-Star has succeeded. Several images have floated around social media, showcasing Doncic's improved frame:

Dallas has yet to report Doncic's official weight, but that should be coming as the season approaches. He entered the 2022-23 season weighing 260 pounds, and he lost about 20 pounds throughout the season. Following the offseason, Doncic could weigh in around 230 pounds. Improved conditioning should only help Doncic, especially on the defensive end.

The supporting case for Doncic winning MVP in the upcoming season doesn't stop there.

Will Luka's Second Star Hinder His Stat-Stuffing?

Of course, we have to address the elephant in the room.

Kyrie Irving — the infamous eight-time All-Star — was acquired by the Mavs during the 2022-23 season. Irving played in 20 games for Dallas, averaging 27.0 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds. Irving and Doncic played together in only 16 games. Irving will be a core piece going forward, as he inked a three-year, $120 million contract in the offseason.

The presence of Irving could harm Doncic's MVP bid. It's a legitimate concern.

Should it prevent a bet on Doncic to win MVP? Well, that's a loaded question.

Irving's effect on Doncic's usage rate is likely the top concern for most. When Irving played, Doncic had a usage rate of 35.4%, but as mentioned earlier, his overall usage rate was 37.5% last season. This is not a big drop-off by any means. In fact, a usage rate of 35.4% would have been the fourth-largest qualifying number in the league last season.

Therefore, we shouldn't expect Doncic's usage rate to sharply drop. Let's not act like this is a loaded roster. Doncic and Irving are the top dogs, but what else does this roster offer?

Dallas added Grant Williams and Seth Curry in free agency. Curry had a -4.0 net rating in the 2022-23 season, and Williams touted a +4.9 net rating with the Boston Celtics. Williams had a 112.1 defensive rating and a true shooting percentage of 60%. He is certainly a solid addition. However, Williams was a part of one of the Association's top teams, and there's a good chance Williams will see his net rating fall with the Mavs.

Don't forget about the loss of Christian Wood, who signed with the Los Angeles Lakers. Wood boasted a 117.8 offensive rating last season. That's a major loss for Dallas' scoring output. Irving -- who had a 28.0% usage rate with the Mavericks -- and Doncic will surely be responsible for over 50% of the team's usage.

While it's a small sample size, we have seen Irving and Doncic on the court together. Doncic was still used at a high rate. He should still put up gaudy stats with Irving in the lineup.

Success For Big D Comes Back to Their D

Doncic is likely in store for another monster season. He has averaged at least 27 points, 8 dimes, and 8 boards in four consecutive seasons. Still, this has not been enough for an MVP. What will be the determining factor for him?

The solution is simple: WIN.

The Mavericks didn't even make the playoffs last season. Of course, that meant Doncic had no chance at the award even with career-best numbers. Four of the previous five MVP winners led their teams to top-three seeds for the postseason. The only exception was Nikola Jokic in the 2021-22 season, as the Denver Nuggets finished with the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.

If Dallas can earn a top-three seed, Doncic will certainly be a prime MVP candidate. The Mavericks likely cannot overachieve without a jaw-dropping season from their superstar.

However, earning a top-three seed is easier said than done. According to the NBA win total odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Dallas has a projected win total of 44.5, and they are tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the sixth-best odds to win the Western Conference (+1200).

That puts things into perspective. In the 2022-23 season, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors earned the fifth and sixth seeds with 44 wins. The Mavs will need to surpass expectations if they are to approach a top-three seed.

Is Dallas capable of surprising the league, though? The Mavericks certainly have scoring covered, ranking second in effective field goal percentage (57.9 eFG%) after acquiring Irving last year. However, defense has held Dallas back. The Mavs were 20th in opponent eFG% and 25th in defensive rating.

Dallas looked to improve its defense by adding Williams and first-round rookie Dereck Lively.

Williams has a career defensive rating of 110.9. For reference, the average defensive rating has been above 112.0 in three consecutive seasons.

Lively was hailed as one of the top defensive prospects in the 2023 class. He was one of college basketball's best shot blockers at Duke, posting 2.4 blocks per game.

Adding Williams and Lively to the frontcourt should drastically improve the defense, but will it make a major difference?

The backcourt still lacks adequate defenders. Irving has posted a defensive rating of 113 or higher in three consecutive seasons. Tim Hardaway Jr. has a 113.8 career defensive rating, and Doncic posted a career-worst 113.3 rating last season.

The Mavericks' attempt to improve their defense is the top priority for the upcoming season, and Doncic could play a major role. If he truly improved his conditioning, we could see his rating improve. Of course, being a good defender would only aid an MVP resume.

This goes a step further for Doncic, though. His defense will have a direct impact on Dallas' win total. Doncic cannot be a constant weak link on the defensive end that opposing teams consistently expose. If he helps the Mavs improve their defense, Dallas could surpass expectations.

With an impressive win total, Doncic is absolutely in business for an MVP bid.

An Apprentice Awarded?

A lot has to go right for Doncic to win MVP, but that's why predicting the winner is so difficult. If it was easy, we'd all look like geniuses.

This award goes past just stats. Wins matter, consistency matters, a player's value matters, and there are other uncontrollable factors like media narratives and voter fatigue at play.

Doncic is an intriguing bet at +650 -- especially compared to his odds in previous seasons. He's been tabbed as a favorite for this award in the past, so it's almost a given that he will be in contention with improved play on both ends and a team winning plenty of games.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.