NBA MVP Betting: Is Anthony Edwards a Legitimate Longshot Candidate?

The NBA MVP race rarely goes as expected.

The 82-game regular season is a grind that wears and tears on players. A team may not live up to expectations and fail to meet their projected win total, or perhaps an MVP contender misses a few games. What if a team acquires another star player? This could take away from an MVP contender's workload. If you lack eye-popping stats, good luck winning the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.

Any of these setbacks can thwart an MVP campaign.

Following a career-best campaign in the 2022-23 season, Anthony Edwards is landing on some betting radars for the MVP Award. The 22-year-old guard is a blooming superstar as one of the league's most dynamic scorers. That was on full show last season with Edwards averaging a career-high 24.6 points per game (PPG).

Despite his exceptional season, the Minnesota Timberwolves stumbled to a 42-40 finish and lost in the first round of the playoffs. This followed an aggressive offseason, which included the acquisition of Rudy Gobert via trade.

Several of Minnesota's key players, like Karl-Anthony Towns, saw their production slip. Edwards could be the answer to leading the T-Wolves to success as his trajectory continues to rise. Is one of the NBA's brightest young stars poised for an MVP-caliber season? Here's Edwards' case for contending for the MVP award.

Postseason Dominance

After watching Edwards for only a few minutes, it's evident why he could be the next great thing. The emerging star is oozing with talent, especially on the offensive end. Edwards is a three-level scorer with a bullish frame at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, and he has the athleticism to convert crafty finishes or blow by defenders, finishing with thunderous dunks.

Edwards is a natural born scorer that can make it rain. He also has the knack for showing out when the lights are the brightest. In Minnesota's five-game series against the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs, Edwards averaged 31.6 PPG, 5.2 assists per game (APG), and 5.0 rebounds per game (RPG).

From Game 2 to Game 4, the former Georgia Bulldogs guard was averaging 37.0 PPG with a 50.0 field goal percentage (FG%) and shot 42.4% on three-pointers. That's right -- 37.0 PPG! This span also featured Edwards' playoff career-high of 41 points in Game 2 in which he shot 60.9% from the field.

He was a one-man wrecking crew against the eventual NBA champions. Denver's defense played well during the postseason too, ranking fourth in defensive rating among playoff teams.

This was truly one of the best playoff performances yet from a young player. Edwards had the second-best box plus/minus (BPM) of all time among players who were 21 or younger in the playoffs, per Basketball Reference.

Edwards' playoff performance could be the perfect leaping pad to enter the MVP conversation. This would take a lot, though. He is +3500 to win the MVP Award when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA MVP odds. Edwards holds the 13th-shortest odds to win the award. Clearly, the fourth-year guard will be a longshot, so what will it take for Edwards to take the hardware?

Is an Increased Role Coming?

At 22, Edwards is still a young buck by basketball standards. He has a few years before entering his "true" prime. After improving in three consecutive seasons, we can expect another leap out of Edwards. I certainly am.

The massive strides are as clear as day. Edwards has improved in nearly every major scoring metric each season. For example, he totaled 19.3 PPG in the 2020-21 season, followed by 21.3 PPG in 2021-22, and finally, he posted his best mark yet at 24.6 PPG last season.

This sharp trajectory also applies to Edwards' efficiency. In his rookie season, he held a 41.7 FG% and shot 32.9% from three-point land. Edwards cashed in 45.9% of his shots and converted 36.9% of his three-point attempts last season.

His wins above replacement (WAR) and offensive RAPTOR have improved over his first three seasons. Edwards struggled in both categories during his rookie season, finishing 238th in WAR and 158th in FiveThirtyEight's offensive RAPTOR. He dramatically increased these numbers in his second season, ranking 43rd in WAR and 49th in offensive RAPTOR. You probably guessed it; Edwards improved in both yet again in 2022-23, amassing the 32nd-best WAR and 45th-best offensive RAPTOR.

The Timberwolves have also trusted Edwards' steady rise with increase shot attempts. He began his career with 16.8 field goal attempts per game (FGA) -- a jaw-dropping number for a first-year player. For comparison, the Orlando Magic's reigning Rookie of the YearPaolo Banchero averaged 15.6 FGA in the 2022-23 season. Then, Edwards averaged 17.3 FGA in his second season and 19.5 FGA last season.

Minnesota clearly trusts Edwards' scoring prowess. Few players are receiving this kind of workload. His 19.5 FGA was the 15th-highest mark among qualifying players. The one-time All-Star also had the 17th-highest usage rate in the NBA (29.2%). Edwards' previous career-high was a 26.2% usage rate in the 2021-22 season.

These numbers are still too low for the MVP title, though. Stephen Curry(28.9%) is the only MVP winner over the previous 10 seasons to have a usage rate of under 29.5%. Fortunately, Edwards -- also known as Ant-Man -- can see these numbers continue to rise, for his game is rapidly developing.

An increasing role goes hand in hand with Edwards' upward trajectory, which could lead to another improved season. Plus, the T-Wolves saw several key players decline last season. Why would they not lean even more on their blooming star? Naturally, though, with other former top picks in the fold, the primary counterargument against him is his supporting cast.

Will KAT Thwart Ant's MVP Run?

Karl-Anthony Towns' production could have the most significant impact on Edwards' potential MVP contention. Of course, Towns was the face of the franchise before Edwards' arrival. The 27-year-old center is a three-time All-Star and averaged at least 24.4 PPG for four consecutive seasons between 2018-22.

KAT missed most of last season with a calf injury, playing in only 29 games. His previous career-low was 35 games in the 2019-20 season. However, Towns still produced in 2019-20 at 26.5 PPG while corralling 10.8 boards per game. His production sharply dropped last season at 20.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG. This was KAT's lowest point total since his rookie season in 2015-16, and 8.1 RPG was a career-low.

The 2022-23 season possibly signaled a changing of the guard. Instead of Towns -- the No. 1 pick from the 2015 NBA Draft -- leading the franchise, Edwards took over as the top dog. Towns' 25.0% usage rate was his lowest since 22.5% in the 2017-18 season.

Still, we can't ignore that Towns was not healthy last season. He suffered a Grade 3 calf strain that held him out for 52 consecutive games. He returned in late March, playing in eight of the final nine regular-season games. More than likely, Towns wasn't up to full speed in that short stint.

He also struggled in the playoffs at 18.2 PPG while shooting 45.7% from the field and 25.0% from beyond the arc. However, this is nothing new; Towns has a reputation for being a disappearing act in the postseason. In his 11 playoff games from the 2018 and 2022 playoffs, the former Kentucky Wildcats center totaled 18.8 PPG.

Edwards' ability to shine on the big stage is yet another reason for the Wolves to name a new face of the franchise. Ant-Man needs to lead Minnesota to a successful season to contend for the MVP award. If Towns is not producing, Edwards could fall short of his goal.

At bare minimum, the Timberwolves must go over their projected win total of 44.5, priced at -122 by FanDuel's NBA win total odds. While Edwards cannot afford Towns to take a huge chunk of his usage rate, Minnesota will likely underachieve if its star center does not return to form. Edwards will likely need some sort of happy medium with Towns returning to All-Star form but Edwards remaining still the clear scoring leader. Essentially, Edwards and Towns need to form one of the NBA's best duos for Minnesota to reach its peak.

Towns could be the only real concern for slowing Edwards' scoring. Rudy Gobert has never reached 16.0 PPG over his 10-year career. Jaden McDaniels enjoyed a breakout 2022-23 season, but his role mostly focuses on 3s and D. Mike Conley, the 36-year-old guard, is also on the decline after averaging 11.9 PPG last season.

The T-Wolves have to lean on Edwards' elite scoring. What other choice to they have? Edwards and Towns must carry the scoring load. The usage split between Minnesota's two stars will be perhaps be the biggest key to Ant-Man's MVP chances.

Edwards is becoming an intriguing MVP contender due to his sharp rise in production. Ahead of the 2023-24 season, he is a longshot for the award, but with another leap and by improving the Timberwolves' win total, Edwards could become a viable player for the coveted title.

Edwards joins a handful of players, including Anthony Davis, Donovan Mitchell, and De'Aaron Fox, who are enticing low-stake plays for the MVP award. As the freshest face on the list, he could make the most sense.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook. Be sure to check out other basketball betting options, as well.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.