NBA MVP Betting: Can Donovan Mitchell Pounce Into the Race?

The NBA MVP race rarely goes as expected.

The 82-game regular season is a grind that wears and tears on players. A team may not live up to expectations and fail to meet their projected win total, or perhaps an MVP contender misses a few games. What if a team acquires another star player? This could take away from an MVP contender's workload. If you lack eye-popping stats, good luck winning the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.

Any of these setbacks can thwart an MVP campaign.

Donovan Mitchell flourished in his first season with the Cleveland Cavaliers, averaging a career-high 28.3 PPG. He earned All-Star honors for the fourth consecutive season, leading Cleveland to its first playoff appearance since LeBron James' final season in 2018. Mitchell proved he is one of the top players in the Eastern Conference, but can that translate to contending for the MVP award?

Mitchell is a long shot to win an MVP, set at +3000 when looking at FanDuel's NBA MVP odds. This puts Mitchell in the same company with Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard, who are also +3000 to win the award.

After finishing fourth in the East last season, can Mitchell take the Cavs to greater heights? What must the "Spida" do to crawl into the MVP conversation?

Tall Playoff Expectations Fell Flat

Mitchell was outstanding in the 2022-23 season, earning Second Team All-NBA honors. Some argued Mitchell deserved First Team honors after posting career-high numbers, which included a 57.2 effective field goal percentage (eFG%).

Still, Mitchell earned plenty of respect last season as he engineered an instant turnaround on the young Cleveland squad. However, we can't act like everything was sunshine and rainbows for Mitchell. His postseason showing was extremely disappointing.

The 6-foot-1 guard built a reputation for being a clutch playoff performer in his time with the Utah Jazz. Mitchell averaged 28.3 PPG, 4.7 assists per game (APG), and 4.9 rebounds per game (RPG) in 39 playoff games with Utah.

Following his excellent regular season, most expected Mitchell to shine in the 2023 playoffs. That was certainly not the case as the four-time All-Star guard stumbled against the New York Knicks with 19.5 PPG in the final four contests of the five-game series. Mitchell also shot 41.9% from the field and a dreadful 24.1 three-point percentage (3P%).

The performance was especially disappointing when Mitchell showcased his peak postseason form in Game 1, recording 38 points with a 46.7% field goal percentage (FG%).

Mitchell's playoff flounder is certainly something to consider for his MVP chances. This harmed his "clutch" playoff reputation, which relates to the public and media perception of Mitchell. Of course, players must be viewed in a favorable light to contend for the MVP award. The Cavs superstar guard should have extra motivation ahead of the 2023-24 season due to his deflating playoff performance.

While this is a valid thought to consider for Mitchell's MVP aspirations, let's dig into more tangible points -- aka stats.

Looking to Stay Lethal From the Field

Mitchell was invaluable to Cleveland last season; there's no denying that. His offensive game hit new heights as he finished seventh in FiveThirtyEight's offensive RAPTOR. Mitchell also ranked 12th in wins above replacement (WAR) at 10.1.

His excellent 2022-23 season led to Mitchell finishing sixth in MVP voting. He will likely get enough opportunities to maintain monster scoring numbers. Mitchell had the 11th-highest usage rate at 31.0% last season, which was his fifth consecutive year with a usage rate of at least 30.0%. Mitchell should have plenty of looks, but increasing his scoring totals will depend on efficiency.

Mitchell touted a career-high 48.4 FG% in the 2022-23 season. He has averaged 20.6, 20.5, and 20.6 field goal attempts per game over the last three seasons. In the 2020-21 season, he averaged 26.4 PPG compared to 25.9 PPG in 2021-22. That total rose to 28.3 PPG last season thanks to Mitchell's improvement in efficiency, but can he maintain this level of shooting?

This was not a minor rise in efficiency by any means. Mitchell's previous career-high was 45.0% shooting; he improved that by over three percentage points last season! Perhaps Mitchell's move to the Cavs did the trick; only time will tell. Regardless, he must maintain this level of efficiency to contend for the MVP award.

If Mitchell improves upon his scoring totals, he could still need more. The obvious solution is leading Cleveland to more wins.

Wins Take the Cake

The Cavaliers finished fourth in the Eastern Conference last season, falling only three games behind the No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers. The East improved in the offseason as the Milwaukee Bucks added Damian Lillard, and the Boston Celtics landed Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

The Bucks (+175) and Celtics (+175) have emerged as the clear favorites to win the East, per FanDuel's NBA conference championship odds. Cleveland comes in with the third-shortest odds to win the conference (+750) ahead of the Sixers at +1000. If the Cavs could beat out Milwaukee or Boston for a top-two seeding, Mitchell would likely be in the midst of another outstanding offseason. With an impressive finish in the East and another excellent stat line, Mitchell would likely be among the MVP frontrunners.

Cleveland did make upgrades in the offseason that mostly focused on three-point shooting. The Cavs ranked 13th at 36.5% from beyond the arc, which is a solid mark. The focus could be on attempting more three-pointers; Cleveland averaged only 31.5 shots from deep per game last season (24th).

Max Strus (37.1 career 3P%) and Georges Niang (40.3 career 3P%) were the notable additions. Assuming Strus and Niang continue to be efficient from three-point land, this should only improve the offense -- particularly the floor spacing. Improvement there would provide Mitchell with more opportunities to get into the paint and aid his chance at boosted shooting splits.

So what's the bottom line? The Cavaliers increasing their win total is certainly feasible. They went 51-31 last season; a few more wins should put Cleveland among the best teams in the East.

Mitchell's MVP chances could come down to two areas: wins and efficiency. We know Mitchell will get his shot attempts, but to maintain elite scoring averages, he must convert. Most importantly, Mitchell needs to fuel the Cavs to another excellent season. If Cleveland is living in the spotlight with an impressive season, it should only aid Mitchell's MVP resume.

This is a long-shot MVP contender for a reason. Mitchell would need another career-best campaign paired with a near-perfect season for the Cavaliers. That's a tall task, but Cleveland and Mitchell are on an upward trajectory, and if it continues to rise, who knows what will happen? A low-stakes bet on Mitchell's +3000 odds to win the MVP award could be worth the risk.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook. Be sure to check out other basketball betting options, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.