NBA MVP Betting: Can De'Aaron Fox Swipe the Award as a Dark Horse?

The NBA MVP race rarely goes as expected.

The 82-game regular season is a grind that wears and tears on players. A team may not live up to expectations and fail to meet their projected win total, or perhaps an MVP contender misses a few games. What if a team acquires another star player? This could take away from an MVP contender's workload. If you lack eye-popping stats, good luck winning the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.

Any of these setbacks can thwart an MVP campaign.

We've seen many twists and turns in the MVP race in recent seasons. Even dark horse candidates have shocked the league by winning the award. It's difficult to remember since Nikola Jokic has emerged as the best player on the planet, but the Denver Nuggets' superstar was outside of the top-10 favorites to win the award prior to the 2020-21 season.

While Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Joel Embiid are drawing most of the MVP hype ahead of the 2023-24 season, we shouldn't overlook the long-shot candidates. The Sacramento Kings' De'Aaron Fox is an MVP dark horse that's worth watching.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Fox is +4000 in NBA MVP odds, which are the 14th-shortest odds on the board. Of course, Fox was an instrumental piece in the Kings' odds-defying 2022-23 season. Is Fox really capable of crashing the MVP party, though? Let's dive into Fox's case for the Most Valuable Player Award.

Light the Beam Reigns Supreme

In a perfect world, the MVP award would always go to the most deserving player. However, this race is loaded with variables, creating plenty of heated debate. Media narratives is one of the biggest gripes concerning the award process.

If a certain MVP campaign is pushed by the media, of course this player will have a big leg up on his competition. This will be a major concern for Fox's MVP bid.

We know how difficult it is for small market teams to breakthrough. The powerhouses, like the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics, will always draw a ton of attention. How can Fox gain enough attention versus superstars who live in the national spotlight?

It's not that Fox lacks elite play. In fact, he comes off an excellent season, earning his first All-Star appearance. The Kings simply do not draw as many eyes compared to competing franchises.

However, Sacramento's 48-34 finish -- their best since the 2004-05 season --earned the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference and demanded attention. The Kings fell short in the first round following a Game 7 loss against the Golden State Warriors. Still, Sacramento proved it's here to stay after contending with the 2022 NBA Champions.

FanDuel Sportsbook agrees with that notion as their NBA playoff odds have the Kings juiced to -230 to earn a postseason berth. Sacramento's 2022-23 season certainly helps Fox draw more attention. Entering last season, the Kings were scheduled for six nationally televised games. Sacramento is slated for 22 national games for the upcoming season. This franchise has struggled for years, so it's awesome to see them living in the limelight. The "light the beam" mantra certainly helps the Kings demand even more media attention:

This squad became one of the Association's darlings last season, and the NBA is giving the people what they want: more Sacramento! Nationally televised games will certainly help Fox's MVP resume, but does he have enough respect to contend for the award?

Holding His Own Against Reigning Champs

Even if a team is regularly getting media attention, this doesn't guarantee certain players will become the talk of the town. However, Fox's 2023 postseason performance earned more respect.

Fox erupted in his first career playoff game, posting 38 points while shooting 48.1% from the field. Only Luka Doncic, who tallied 42 points in his first postseason appearance, has a higher point total in his playoff debut. Fox ranks second all-time in most points in a playoff debut. If that doesn't generate respect, I don't know what will.

The former Kentucky Wildcat continued his strong postseason performance, averaging 27.4 points per game (PPG), 7.7 assists per game (APG), and 5.4 rebounds per game (RPG). Remember, Fox also sustained a fractured finger during the series. He still produced at a high rate, totaling 22.0 PPG in the final three games of the series.

Without national attention, there would be no point in addressing Fox's MVP chances. Fortunately, he now has this box checked, but let's be honest, statistics will likely take the cake in the MVP race. Is Fox capable of posting adequate numbers for the MVP award?

A Soaring Stock

First, the good news. Fox touted career-best numbers last season. The 25-year-old guard is in the midst of his prime and could continue to improve.

He averaged 25 PPG, 6.1 APG, and 4.2 RPG. His assist average was the third-lowest mark of his six-year career, and Fox's 25 PPG was the second-best mark of his blooming career. I know what you're wondering -- how was this a career-best season?

Fox's efficiency improved without a doubt. His 2020-21 season is likely his second-best year. He posted 25.2 PPG and 7.2 assists per game. However, Fox had an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 52.3%. That's decent when the league average during the 2020-21 season was 53.8%.

Last season, Fox's eFG% increased to 58.4%. Now, we're talking. The league average was 54.5%. This is by far the best eFG% mark of his career -- over four percentage points better than his second-best.

Fox also touted a career-high in offensive RAPTOR. He ranked 18th in the category, and his previous best was 29th in the 2020-21 season. This was also a major jump compared to Fox's 2021-22 season, in which he ranked 44th in offensive RAPTOR.

The one-time All-Star also played in 73 games last season compared to 58 in 2020-21. Strong availability is another bolstering point for Fox; 8 of the previous 10 MVP winners played in at least 70 games in the regular season.

Fox is officially a star following an exceptional 2022-23 season. However, can his stat line reach an MVP height?

Advanced Stats Complicate Things

The 2023 playoffs showed what Fox is capable. His averages increased across the board. He even led the league with 2.1 steals per game in the postseason. There's a reason people call him Swipa -- inspired by Swiper the Fox from Dora the Explorer.

However, it's unlikely that Fox can post stats at this rate for an entire regular season. Even if he did, is 27.4 PPG, 7.7 APG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.1 steals per game enough? We've seen stranger things happen, and if the Kings grab another top-three seed, that helps his case.

Still, Fox's usage rate has simply not been high enough. He had a 30.0% usage rate last season, which ranked 10th. Fox has an average usage rate of 29.9% over his previous four seasons. It's unlikely that his usage rate will reach over 30.0% this season with a formidable squad surrounding the star guard.

What does this mean for Fox's MVP chances? Jokic in 2021 and Stephen Curry in 2015 are the only MVP winners over the previous 10 seasons that won the award with a usage rate of under 30%.

Fox was also 53rd in total RAPTOR in the 2022-23 season. That is not up to an MVP standard. In fact, the last 10 award winners ranked in the top nine of total RAPTOR. Last season's 53rd finish was Fox's best mark in total RAPTOR. Will he jump over 40 spots in the advanced stat? Let's keep it real; that seems pretty unlikely.

With that said, there are certainly more favorable MVP longshots out there. For example, someone with a higher usage rate, likeShai Gilgeous-Alexander, could be a better choice. While Fox comes off a career-best season, his usage rate and efficiency could fall a bit short of contending for the MVP award.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.