Predicting the next NBA MVP may seem like a fool’s errand. The range of eligible candidates, risk of injuries, and somewhat erratic nature of the voting criteria can send prospective bettors into a tailspin.

However, with the NBA season on the horizon, there are a myriad of factors we can analyze to make this task less daunting, as well as some fresh faces who could look to make their bid for the crown.

Enter Oklahoma City Thunder standout Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is coming off a career-best year, averaging 31.4 points per game (PPG; fourth-best in the NBA) and will look to take his play and team to newer heights this season.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA MVP odds, he currently sits at +1600 (sixth-shortest player) to win the trophy, but there are a few variables at play that make siding with SGA the cream of the crop.

Team Performance

To put it simply: Oklahoma City needs to win games for SGA to have a shot at the MVP. There are too many great players on great teams for the MVP to be awarded to a player whose team underperforms in the regular season. This is evidenced by the fact that a season-end record of 46-26 (Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks in 2020-2021) was the worst an MVP winner’s team has posted since 2000.

This is not at all to say that the Thunder aren’t capable of competing this year. The NBA win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook currently sets Oklahoma City’s 2023-2024 win total at 44.5, hovering right around that magic 46-win number. OKC’s odds to make the playoffs sit at -132, and with former second-overall draft pick Chet Holmgren making his long-awaited NBA debut this season and the likes of Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams primed to perform better as they further acclimate into the league, the Thunder are set up to overperform.

Despite the Thunder’s talented youngsters, make no mistake that a successful Thunder team means a successful SGA season. He averaged 14.8 more PPG than the second leading OKC scorer (31.4 PPG to Giddey’s 16.6 PPG) and led the team in minutes played and Player Impact Estimate (PIE).

In looking at the other players in the MVP conversation, almost none of them have the unique ability to put their team on the map this upcoming season -- wholly because their teams are already on the map.

If Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have a successful season, they will simply be following up on their dominant championship run from last season. No new news here. If Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors make a major run, it will be cited as same-old, same-old. The same goes for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks; they have been a top three Eastern Conference seed in each of the last five years. It won’t be considered moving mountains if they do it again.

However, if the Thunder have a great year and are considered a championship contender by the season’s end, this will be a major feather in SGA’s cap and a luxury that most other MVP candidates do not have.

MVP Winners: By the Numbers

When analyzing the factors that lead a player to win the MVP, the results aren’t very cut and dry. Though the NBA MVP is typically deemed as an award won on offense, leading the league in points per game or having the best offensive rating isn’t the end-all be-all. While team performance is certainly key, a potential candidate by no means needs to be the best player on the best team.

Player Impact Estimate (PIE), which measures the all-around contribution to a game (as a percentage) and incorporates a majority of the statistical categories in the box score, is a metric that seems to pull major weight in the eyes of the MVP voting body. Seven of the last eight MVPs led the league in PIE; Jokic had a 20.1% PIE when he won this award in 2021, second to only Joel Embiid at 20.3%. Based on this, we can reasonably expect that the NBA MVP for the 2023-2024 season will place in the top three of PIE.

Gilgeous-Alexander posted a 17.5% PIE last season, which was 8th in the NBA. Although this number would not meet the typical PIE standard for an MVP-winner, SGA did see a major increase in this category from the season prior when he put up a 13.4% PIE (43rd). This significant jump is a sign of good things to come, and we could see him break into a top spot in this category on the road to claiming the MVP title.

In fact, we’ve seen this happen in years past. The most notable occurrence came in the 2014-2015 season, when Steph Curry posted a 17.8% PIE (sixth) and followed this up with a 19.7% PIE (first) in the 2015-2016 season, resulting in him being crowned MVP.

In the last 15 years, MVP winners have, on average, won the award in their seventh season in the league. This average could be based on a variety of factors, including peak performance age, relevancy, and voter fatigue.

SGA is entering his sixth season in the league, while some of his competition are much older (Jokic is entering 9th season, Antetokounmpo - 11th, Curry - 15th, Durant - 17th). Luka Doncic is entering his sixth season, but his ability to remain healthy and the Dallas Mavericks performance will be the true test to his MVP chances. Jayson Tatum is entering his seventh season, though he has yet to break into the top 12 of PIE. Joel Embiid is entering his eighth season, but similarly to Doncic, his health, voter fatigue, and the 76ers’ volatility will play a much larger role in his case.

Though this metric won’t have significant bearing when it comes to MVP voting, it is key to note that SGA’s age would, historically, favor his chances.

A Hard-to-Ignore Stat Line

Gilgeous-Alexander's odds to average at least 32 PPG this season sit at +130 while his odds to average at least 6 assists per game (APG) are +120, and as mentioned, the Thunder’s win total is set at 44.5. There has only been one instance in the 21st century in which a player averaged at least 32 PPG and 6+ APG, and led their team to 45-plus wins and did not win the MVP award.

This came for James Harden and the Houston Rockets in the 2018-2019 season when the MVP was eventually awarded to Antetokounmpo. Though Harden did not win the hardware that season, there are a myriad of reasons why that stat line would be perceived differently if boasted by SGA. For starters, Harden is an infamously poor defender. His efforts were deemed by many as a complete lack of interest on the defensive end (and in turn, a complete lack of interest in winning). Last season, SGA posted a 113.3 defensive rating while Harden ended his 2018-2019 bid with a 110.3 defensive rating. Harden’s field-goal percentage that year also failed to move the needle, ending the year with a 44.2 FG%. SGA posted a 51.0% FG% last season.

Further, when Harden posted this stat line, he was off the heels of an MVP win, meaning voter fatigue could have played a factor in his loss. SGA, meanwhile, couldn’t be a fresher name to this conversation; he is the only player in the top eight of current MVP odds to have never received a first-place MVP vote.

While it's by no means a shoo-in that SGA can post the 32 PPG, 6 APG, and 45-plus win total stat line this season, it's notable that only one other player has better odds to do so (Embiid). If he hits this stat line (or nears it), increases his PIE percentage, and leads the Thunder to playoff contention, we could see a fresh face in the MVP talks this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.