NBA MVP Betting: Can Kevin Durant Make History?

Predicting the next NBA MVP may seem like a fool’s errand. The range of eligible candidates, risk of injuries, and somewhat erratic nature of the voting criteria can send prospective bettors into a tailspin.

However, with the NBA season on the horizon, there are a myriad of factors we can look at to make this task less daunting.

Former MVP Kevin Durant will begin his first full season with the Phoenix Suns this month, and, as has been the case for the past decade or so, he is a major contender to take home this year’s season-end crown.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Durant’s odds to win NBA MVP currently sit at +1600 (sixth-shortest odds).

At 35 years old, Durant would be the oldest player to ever win MVP (Karl Malone and Michael Jordan won the MVP at a slightly younger age 35).

With many young guns in the MVP race this year, namely Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Durant’s road to the hardware won’t be easy. Does he have a chance to make history? Let’s find out.

New Team, New Durant

Last February, the Brooklyn Nets traded Kevin Durant to the Suns, giving the Durantula a chance to play alongside the likes of Devin Booker and Chris Paul on a championship-caliber team. The Suns lost in the playoffs to the eventual champion Denver Nuggets and have since seen some pretty hefty roster shake-ups.

In the offseason, the Suns traded Chris Paul and Landry Shamet for All-Star guard Bradley Beal. The Beal-Booker-Durant trio should prove to be an offensive powerhouse, but how will this affect Durant’s numbers?

Last season, this now-Suns trio averaged a combined 56.5 field-goal attempts (FGA) per game. For reference, the Suns team as a whole averaged 90.1 FGA per game last season.

Though these numbers could point to a potential FGA decrease for Durant this season, it likely won’t be an issue. With the loss of starter Chris Paul, who averaged 11.3 FGA per game last season, and Deandre Ayton, who averaged 13.2 FGA, Durant and company should have enough room to get plenty of shots up. Jusuf Nurkic and Josh Okogie are the projected starters to round off the Suns lineup, neither of whom play a sizable role in the shot-taking department.

Though the star-ridden Suns squad shouldn’t result in a hit to Durant’s stats (in fact, the various offensive threats should help KD get better shot opportunities), it’s likely that Devin Booker’s status as a top-10 MVP candidate could result in the MVP voting body splitting votes between the two stars.

The split vote is a tricky thing to gauge, but if there is one circumstance in which it will have an impact, it will be in regards to Durant and Booker. The Suns are the only team in the league to have two current top-10 MVP favorites. This means that if Phoenix has an incredible season, and in turn, the voting body chooses to reward their play with MVP votes, Durant will have to duke it out with Booker.

Candidates such as Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Doncic have a clear monopoly on team-based MVP votes; no other players on their respective squads have a decent chance at the hardware, giving them a major advantage over someone like Durant.

All Is Not Lost For KD

Though the split vote aspect of KD’s MVP bid puts him in a tough spot, there are various factors working to his advantage. His team is primed to perform this season, which is arguably the first step in a player’s path to securing the MVP. Since 2000, the worst record that an MVP winners’ team posted was 46-26 (Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks).

Based on this, we can reasonably infer that an MVP-winners team must win at least 45 games. The Suns win total is currently set at 52.5, while their odds to make the NBA playoffs are -3000. The team performance bar should be cleared for Durant while it remains to be seen whether candidates such as Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Embiid are able to clear this bar.

Beyond a solid team performance, it’s difficult to find a single-stat correlation that serves as a ubiquitous MVP-winning factor. The award is, rightly so, viewed as a trophy won on offense. Despite this, serving as the league’s scoring leader doesn’t seem to hold much value in the eyes of the voting body. There have been only five occasions in the last 22 seasons in which the NBA scoring leader was also named MVP.

When analyzing the stats of recent MVPs, there is one major stat in which their venn diagrams overlap -- Player Impact Estimate (PIE). Seven out of the last eight MVPs have led the NBA in PIE, a metric that implements a majority of box score factors to gauge a player's overall contribution.

Durant led the league in PIE in his 2013-2014 MVP-winning season, and the numbers show he could be primed to do so again this year.

In his last 13 seasons, Durant has placed in the top-12 of PIE each year -- the longest-running PIE performance-rank to date. He finished last season with the sixth best PIE in the league.

Though Durant has only played eight regular season games for Phoenix, the small sample size is noteworthy both due to team performance and Durant’s PIE rank. During this tenure, the Suns went 8-0, and Durant posted a 21.1 PIE (second behind eventual MVP Embiid’s 21.5). Again, we can’t necessarily anticipate an eight-game instance to hold a candle to season-long numbers, but it is certainly encouraging for KD’s MVP chances that he had a striking increase in PIE with the Suns.

Last season, Durant posted a career-high 56.0% field-goal percentage. Despite being one of the most dominant players in the league for over a decade, he was able to beat out his previous 53.6% career-high percentage, a good sign that his play, despite his age, has no signs of tapering off.

Further, Durant shot a towering 57.0% from the field during his short season-end stint with Booker and the Suns, and though this number could certainly be categorized as misleading given the insufficient sample, it could also be indicative of the quality shot opportunities he sees with an offensive threat like Booker on his team.

It goes without saying that Durant’s MVP chances rely first and foremost on his ability to stay healthy, especially given the NBA's new requirement that players must participate in a minimum of 65 games to be eligible for season-end awards.

The Phoenix Suns are undoubtedly a team to be feared, and as long as Durant stays healthy, he will be in the MVP conversation. If he can utilize his offensive weapon teammates to create quality shot opportunities, and in turn, increase his PIE, I think Durant has a decent chance at being crowned the oldest MVP in NBA history.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.