The NBA MVP race rarely goes as expected.

The 82-game regular season is a grind that wears and tears on players. A team may not live up to expectations and fail to meet their projected win total, or perhaps an MVP contender misses a few games. What if a team acquires another star player? This could take away from an MVP contender's workload. If you lack eye-popping stats, good luck winning the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award.

Any of these setbacks can thwart an MVP campaign.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is no stranger to the MVP title, as he won back-to-back awards in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. The Greek Freak is expected to be in the running once again in the upcoming season. The Milwaukee Bucks are tied with the Boston Celtics as co-favorites to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy (+380) when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Finals odds.

Of course, Antetokounmpo will play an instrumental role on the Bucks. If Milwaukee lives up to high expectations, the 7-foot forward will likely be in the thick of the MVP race. However, the Bucks landed Damian Lillard in a blockbuster trade last week. This could have a major impact on Antetokounmpo's usage and statistics.

Is Antetokounmpo capable of winning his third MVP award even with the Lillard joining the squad?

Greek Phenom Still Boasts Freaky Numbers

With a third MVP award, Antetokounmpo would join elite company. LeBron James is the only current player with three MVPs -- he holds four. Only eight players in NBA history have three MVPs: Larry Bird (3), Magic Johnson (3), Moses Malone (3), LeBron (4), Wilt Chamberlain (4), Bill Russell (5), Michael Jordan (5), and Kareem Adbul-Jabbar (6).

Antetokounmpo has likely already cracked the all-time great conversation. If you have any doubts, he will certainly be a part of the club with another MVP title in his trophy case.

While the Greek Freak has not won an award since the 2019-20 season, his production has not dropped whatsoever. He just averaged 31.1 points per game (PPG), 11.8 rebounds per game (RPG), and 5.7 assists per game (APG) last season -- certainly on par with his MVP seasons. Antetokounmpo's 31.1 PPG average was even a career-best mark.

His defensive stats were the only category to take a real hit at 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. Antetokounmpo averaged at least one of each in his previous seven seasons. He's still an elite defender, though. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds, the Greek Freak has the second-shortest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year (+650). Per StatMuse, Antetokounmpo also had the Association's top defensive rating last season (107.7).

Among qualifying players, the two-time MVP winner also led the NBA with a 37.3% usage rate in the 2022-23 season. For comparison, Giannis had usage rates of 31.4% and 36.3% in his MVP seasons. Antetokounmpo is still firmly in the MVP picture. One could argue he deserved the award last season, and he finished third in MVP voting.

While Giannis' had impressive averages and a high usage rate, his numbers were lacking in some efficiency stats. For example, he ranked 15th in FiveThirtyEight's total RAPTOR and finished 25th in wins above replacement (WAR). While last season's RAPTOR was on par with Antetokounmpo's 2018-19 mark (16th), his WAR was far below his MVP seasons. Giannis ranked seventh in WAR in the 2018-19 season and fifth in the 2019-20 season.

Despite some efficiency slips, FanDuel's NBA MVP odds have Antetokounmpo with the second-shortest odds to win the award (+550), but adding Lillard to the mix could impact Giannis' numbers. Let's check out what the addition of Lillard means for Antetokounmpo's MVP bid.

Dame Time Dampens Giannis' MVP Bid?

Lillard is 33, so naturally, some assume the seven-time All-Star guard could be on the decline. However, his 2022-23 season suggests otherwise. Lillard remains one of the top scoring guards in the Association and will have a major impact in Milwaukee.

After playing in only 29 games in the 2020-21 season due to an abdominal injury, Lillard participated in 58 contests last season. While this was an improvement from 2020-21, 58 games was still Lillard's second-lowest total in his 11-year career. Availability will be perhaps the biggest concern surrounding the veteran guard in the upcoming season.

We know Lillard is elite when he's on the hardwood. He averaged a career-high 32.2 PPG and 7.3 APG last season. Perhaps Lillard's most impressive stat was finishing second in offensive RAPTOR -- his highest mark since the 2019-20 season.

Of course, Lillard's stats will likely drop with the Bucks. This should be the best team he has been a part of, meaning his usage rate will likely drop. Keep in mind that Lillard finished fifth in usage rate last season.

Still, adding a scorer of Lillard's caliber will surely take some shot attempts away from Antetokounmpo, right? Lillard is replacing Jrue Holiday, who averaged 15.3 field goal attempts per game (FGA) last season. Lillard hoisted 20.7 shots per game last season and has averaged at least 19.0 FGA in eight consecutive seasons.

However, we have not seen Lillard on a true championship contender. The former Weber State Wildcats guard echoed that sentiment on media day:

His usage rate and FGA are big unknowns heading into the 2023-24 season, which also makes Antetokounmpo's MVP chances a bit of a gray area. Of course, the Greek Freak will still likely boast excellent stats, and Lillard has played in only 87 of 164 games over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo has provided excellent availability, playing in at least 61 games in every season during his 10-year career.

If Lillard happens to miss a chunk of games, which seems possible following recent seasons, Antetokounmpo will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his irreplaceable value.

One of Giannis' traits could be flying under the radar, though. Defense could be the deciding factor for Antetokounmpo's MVP campaign.

Defense Is the Name of the Game

Antetokounmpo has been a high-level defender for years. Why would this trait suddenly look even more valuable?

Holiday -- who now calls Boston home -- has been one of the league's best two-way guards for several seasons. He has earned All-Defensive honors five times and made First Team in the 2022-23 season. Lillard's defense is a stark contrast, as his rating has eclipsed 120.0 in back-to-back seasons. His mark of 120.8 finished 245th among guards last season.

Lillard discussed replacing Holiday's defense: "I'm not gonna come in here and be Jrue Holiday. I think in my personal opinion, he's the best defender on the perimeter... I ain't a pushover."

Perhaps Lillard intends to improve his defense, which should be expected for a title-contending team. However, we know it's very unlikely that Lillard will match Holiday's defensive intensity. The Bucks essentially traded an exceptional defender for an elite shotmaker. As they say, one step forward and two steps backward -- unless Antetokounmpo returns to his defensive peak.

The Greek Freak is still an excellent defender by all accounts, but he's capable of more. Antetokounmpo has posted some mind-boggling defensive ratings throughout his career, especially in his MVP seasons. His career-best marks were 99.3 in the 2018-19 season and 97.0 in the 2019-20 season.

While last season's 107.7 mark is still impressive, defensive ratings in the 90s are on another level. Since 1980, only three teams have finished with defensive ratings of 97.0 or better: the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs, and 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs. We're talking about some of the greatest defenses of all time.

Since the 2018-19 season, Antetokounmpo is one of two players who posted a defensive rating of under 100.0 while playing at least 50 games. Mike Conley is the only other player to accomplish this feat in the last five seasons; he had a 99.5 defensive rating in the 2020-21 season.

Milwaukee relied on elite defense last season, finishing fourth in rating. Of course, we should expect the Bucks' defense to drop and their offense to rise with the addition of Lillard. If Milwaukee's defense remains one of the league's best, Antetokounmpo will likely play a major role. The unit still has plenty of talent; Brook Lopez ranked second in defensive RAPTOR last season.

As previously mentioned, Giannis has the second-shortest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year. Milwaukee could be looking for more defensive contributions from Antetokounmpo due to the departure of Holiday. The Greek Freak has the opportunity to shoulder the defensive load, potentially elevating his chances for Defensive Player of the Year.

This would only help Antetokounmpo's chances for a third MVP award. Giannis' scoring production could slightly drop with Lillard joining the fray, but he has the chance to contribute more on the defensive end. Even on a stacked, title-contending team, Antetokounmpo still remains one of the best picks for the 2023-24 MVP title.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.