NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Picks and Prediction (Celtics-Mavericks)

3mo

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Despite a late rally from the Dallas Mavericks, the Boston Celtics went up 3-0 in the NBA Finals thanks to a 106-99 Game 3 win. Boston is now just one win away from the 2024 title.

No team has come back from down 0-3 to win an NBA playoff series, but the Finals aren't over yet. In what's essentially pick 'em in Game 4, we shouldn't expect Luka Doncic to go down without a fight.

Let's dive into the odds and break down the matchup before talking through the best bet for Celtics-Mavericks Game 4.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Finals Betting

Celtics-Mavericks Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, June 14th at 8:35 p.m. ET

Spread: Celtics -1.0 (-108)

Total: 211.5 (-108/-112)

Moneyline:

Celtics vs. Mavericks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Celtics:
- nERD: 80.8 (1st)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
- Pace: 97.7 (19th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
Mavericks:
- nERD: 57.1 (12th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
- Pace: 100.4 (8th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34-0

Celtics vs. Mavericks Best Bet

Mavericks Moneyline (-104)

Are the Mavs really going to get swept?

Given how good Boston has looked this series (and all season), it's certainly in the cards.

But, with Kristaps Porzingis out in Game 3, there was enough good from Dallas to warrant backing them on the moneyline in Game 4.

For starters, Dallas more than held their own inside. Without Boston's 7'3" unicorn patrolling the interior, the Mavs outscored them 52-36 in the paint and won the rebound battle 43-36.

The Celtics shot well (17-of-46 from three), but Dallas still held them to 106 points overall.

While Jayson Tatum went for 31 points, it took him 26 shots to get there. Jrue Holiday (9 points; 4-of-9) and Derrick White (16 points; 4-of-10) didn't hurt them too much, either, though Jaylen Brown (30 points; 12-of-22) was, again, a matchup nightmare.

Entering Game 4, Brown is averaging 24.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game this series. He has the shortest odds to win NBA Finals MVP at -340.

Still, the absence of Porzingis was notable when Boston needed an easy basket, especially late in the fourth quarter. They shot just 38.9% in the final period and were outscored by eight points.

Luka was +12 in eight minutes of fourth quarter action before fouling out. He finished +9 across 38 total minutes, scoring 27 points on 11-of-27 shooting. Considering that was the first time he fouled out of a playoff series, I'm bullish on Luka's impact over 40-plus minutes in Game 4.

Both Kyrie Irving (35 points on 13-of-28 shooting) and Dereck Lively (11 points; 13 rebounds) enjoyed their best game of the series with Porzingis sidelined, and that's something that could continue into Game 4.

However, the biggest upgrade the Mavs could get would be Tim Hardaway Jr.'s minutes drying back up. Though he'd previously appeared in just three games since the Conference Semifinals, Hardaway Jr. saw his second most minutes of the postseason (19) in Game 3. He finished a team-worst -16, finishing with zero points on 0-of-5 shooting.

But the non-THJ minutes went really, really well for Dallas. I'd be shocked if Hardaway Jr. sees the floor in Game 4, and that should pay dividends for the Mavs on both ends.

That said, the line has already begun to move in Boston's direction. I'll likely wait to see if Dallas moves to plus odds, though the current -104 odds are still worth playing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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