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NBA Eastern Conference Winner Odds: Celtics, Bucks In Their Own Tier

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere•@ZackBussiere

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The opening month of the 2023-24 NBA season is officially complete.

There is a long way to go still, but we have now seen a glimpse of what we can expect from each team this season.

Let's take a look at the Eastern Conference winner odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and see where we stand heading into December.

Here is a full list of the odds, with a breakdown of the top five teams.

Rk
Team
2023-24 Eastern Conference Winner Odds
1Boston Celtics+145
2Milwaukee Bucks+185
3Philadelphia 76ers+600
4Cleveland Cavaliers+1200
5Miami Heat+1900
6New York Knicks+2000
7Orlando Magic+1400

Boston Celtics (+145)

The Boston Celtics fell short of winning the East last season, losing at home in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat. Since then, they have made several moves to ensure that they don't fall at the same hurdle this season, including signing Jaylen Brown to an extension and trading for both Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

Sitting at 15-5, the Celtics have the best record in the East, and together with the Milwaukee Bucks, they form a two-team tier at the top of the odds. The West has more teams vying for its title, with eight teams with odds shorter than +1700, but the East has a closer race at the top, with the Celtics and Bucks closer on odds than the Nuggets and Suns.

Per Dunks & Threes, the Celtics rank fifth in adjusted offense rating (aORTG) at 117.6 and first in adjusted defense rating (aDRTG) at 108.9. That gives them an adjusted net rating (aNET) of +8.7 -- which ranks first by a wide margin. The margin between the Celtics in first and the Philadelphia 76ers in second (+6.1) is greater than the margin between the 76ers and New York Knicks in sixth.

Boston has faced the fourth-most difficult schedule thus far, per Dunks & Threes, and Jayson Tatum is tied for the fourth-best odds to win his first MVP (+1000), per the NBA MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

In short, the changes the Celtics made this offseason have gone well so far. They finished last season with an aORTG of 117.9 and aDRTG of 111.3. Twenty games into this season, they are similar on offense and improved on defense. Boston is the favorite to win the East and the NBA championship (+370).

Milwaukee Bucks (+185)

The Bucks crashed out of the NBA playoffs in the first round last season, unable to survive the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo for multiple games in their series against the Heat. Like Boston, they went into the offseason trying to ensure a better result this time around, and that resulted in a change in head coach -- from Mike Budenholzer to Adrian Griffin -- and a trade for Damian Lillard.

So far, Milwaukee sits at 14-6, tied with the Orlando Magic for second in the East. They rank eighth in aORTG (117.1) and 17th in aDRTG (114.3). That gives them an aNET of +2.8, which ranks seventh. They have faced the fifth-easiest schedule thus far, according to Dunks & Threes, and Antetokounmpo is tied with Tatum for the fourth-best odds to win MVP (+1000).

Last season, Milwaukee finished with an aORTG of 114.9, aDRTG of 111.5, and aNET of +3.4. Bringing in Lillard and losing Holiday was expected to strengthen the Bucks' offense but weaken their defense. So far this season, that has been the case. Milwaukee averages the third-most points per game in the league (121.1), but they allow the seventh-most points per game (118.1).

Their defense hasn't yet hurt their record. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and sit just a game behind Boston. They have a very favorable schedule in December, providing them more time to figure things out.

All in all, after a slightly slow start to the season, the Bucks are in a great spot and are well-positioned to challenge the Celtics in the East.

Philadelphia 76ers (+600)

The 76ers' season ended with a Game 7 loss to the Celtics in the second round of the NBA playoffs. Like the Bucks and Celtics, Philadelphia made moves this offseason to improve on that result, replacing Doc Rivers with Nick Nurse.

The biggest player-personnel move the 76ers made was addition by subtraction, trading James Harden to the Los Angeles Clippers for a combination of players and picks. So far, the results have been excellent, with Tyrese Maxey on pace for a breakout season and the 76ers sitting at 12-7, good for fourth in the East.

Philadelphia ranks second in aORTG (118.7) and eighth in aDRTG (112.7) for an aNET of +6.1 which ranks second, behind only Boston. Their metrics so far this season are an improvement on last year -- when they finished with an aORTG of 117.9, aDRTG of 113.5, and aNET of +4.4.

They have faced the second-most difficult schedule thus far, per Dunks & Threes, and Joel Embiid has the third-best odds to win MVP (+750).

After going 8-1 to open the season, the 76ers have cooled off slightly, going 4-6 since. One positive is that all of their losses have come against teams with winning records, and five of their losses came against teams ranked inside the top eight in aNET.

The good news for the 76ers is their schedule is about to get considerably easier. Over the next two weeks, they face the Washington Wizards twice and Detroit Pistons twice, as well as the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, and Chicago Bulls. Outside of Atlanta, all of those teams rank inside the bottom seven in aNET.

As it stands, the 76ers are in a mini tier of their own in the East. They remain below Boston and Milwaukee but are significantly above the other contenders.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+1200)

After an impressive regular season, the Cleveland Cavaliers ended their campaign last year with a disappointing first-round exit to the Knicks in five games.

Their success last season was built on their defense. Cleveland finished with the best aDRTG (110.4) in the league. They paired that with the eighth-best aORTG (116.0) for an aNET of +5.7 that was second to only Boston's.

So far this season, they are following a similar pattern. They are better on defense than offense but are worse in both phases of the game. Their aORTG (113.1) ranks 18th and their aDRTG (111.0) ranks third, resulting in an aNET of +2.0, which checks in eighth.

That drop-off has them sitting at 11-9, good for eighth in the East. They have had a middle-of-the-road schedule thus far, 11th-most difficult, per Dunks & Threes. The defensive decline has been a small one -- Cleveland is still allowing only the eighth-fewest points per game so far (111.2) -- but their offense simply hasn't been good enough. They are scoring 110.8 points per game, sixth-fewest in the league.

Injuries and absences have been a factor as Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen have each missed five games. Those absences have contributed to Cleveland's bench plus/minus of -2.1, which ranks fourth-worst.

The good news for Cleveland is that all of their starters are healthy now. The bad news is they are entering a rough stretch of their schedule -- over their next five games, they play Boston and Orlando twice each and Miami once.

The Cavaliers are long shots to win the East, but any path they have to do so starts with their offense improving to at least league average. Their defense is where it needs to be, but defense alone won't be enough.

Miami Heat (+1900)

The Heat finished last season with a loss to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals after one of the most improbable runs through the playoffs in league history. Their offseason was spent trying to facilitate a trade for Damian Lillard. Not only did that deal never materialize, but Lillard ended up going to Milwaukee, which ultimately led to Jrue Holiday moving to the Celtics. To say things didn't go according to plan for Miami would be an understatement.

Twenty games into the season, the Heat sit at 11-9, tied for seventh in the East. It's been an up-and-down year thus far. Miami started slowly, winning one of their first five games, before winning nine of their next 10. Since then, they have lost four of their last five.

The Heat rank 15th in aORTG (114.1) and 11th in aDRTG (113.0), which gives them a 13th-ranked aNET of +1.1. Their underlying metrics say they are middle-of-the-road team, and their record supports that. Miami has faced the eighth-easiest schedule thus far, per Dunks & Threes.

Miami finished last season with an aORTG of 113.2 and aDRTG of 113.4. So far this season, they are a slightly better team on offense and slightly worse on D.

The play of rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been a bright spot. The 18th overall pick in this year's draft is averaging 12.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. He has the third-best odds to win Rookie of the Year (+5000) -- per the Rookie of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- behind only Chet Holmgren (-165) and Victor Wembanyama (+120).

The problem for Miami is that matching their metrics from last season still positions them as longshots to repeat as Eastern Conference Champions. They entered the postseason last year through the Play-In Tournament and had to pull off numerous upsets to reach the finals. As it currently stands, they would face a similar path this season.

The Heat have plenty of time to change that, starting with a favorable schedule over the next two weeks, one that includes two games each against the Hornets and Bulls.


Looking for more NBA betting opportunities? Check out all of the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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