NBA Draft Betting: Will Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller Be the Second Overall Pick?

The Charlotte Hornets are the proverbial straw that will stir the drink in the 2023 NBA Draft.

The NBA Draft betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have France's Victor Wenbanyama as a -50000 (yes, no typo) favorite to go first overall and become a member of the San Antonio Spurs. There is no drama there.

The drama starts at the second pick with the Hornets.

Charlotte is down to two choices, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. They're between guard Scoot Henderson of the NBA G-League Ignite and Brandon Miller, a forward from the University of Alabama. The Athletic's Shams Charania also reports that Henderson is gaining momentum but a decision will ultimately be made between the two on Thursday.

Not only do consensus mock drafts support these two as the next-best options to Wenbanyama, but the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook reflect that, too:

This line has gone bananas today as we approach the NBA Draft. On Wednesday, Miller had -650 odds to go No. 2 but has now dropped back to the underdog after Charania reported Henderson is picking up steam.

Who should the Hornets choose? Who will they pick and why?

Passing on Scoot's Generational Upside Could Be Costly

Because all seven-foot frames like Wenbanyama's carry some injury risk, Scoot Henderson could be considered the safest prospect in the draft.

Henderson is a prospect whose dynamic athleticism jumps off the screen the second you roll the footage. For two years, Scoot has been throwing down vicious dunks on the NBA's G-League at his height of just 6'2". He's rightfully drawn comparisons to Ja Morant with such leaping ability at a small height.

He could grow into a dynamic triple-double threat like Morant or Russell Westbrook if his G-League stats are any indication. He averaged 15.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game against other professionals -- not college kids.

At worst, he'll be a dynamic athlete and willing passer at the position. His shooting splits -- like Morant -- leave a ton to be desired, but Morant, De'Aaron Fox, and John Wall are all dynamic point guard prospects who faced the same concerns and significantly improved. If his work ethic is as claimed, then he can improve, too.

The tricky part here is his fit in Charlotte next to former top-three pick LaMelo Ball. LaMelo was fourth in the entire NBA in touches per game (90.2) last year, and he averaged 4.90 seconds with the ball per touch -- which comfortably led the Hornets.

Henderson's ability to involve others and create off his own dribble is pretty useless next to such a ball-dominant figure, and forcing Scoot into a catch-and-shoot role could curb his upside as a prospect.

By all accounts, Henderson has significant All-Star potential as the engine of an offense, but Charlotte already has such a player, which puts the Hornets into a conundrum.

Brandon Miller Fits Like a Glove

On the other side of the equation, from an integration perspective, any team in the NBA could use a forward like Brandon Miller.

Playing for an Alabama team that was the top overall seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, Miller averaged 18.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game while shooting 38.4% from deep. He's a prototypical wing scorer with an excellent jumpshot.

However, what really has scouts excited is his defensive potential. Miller's long wingspan and admitted pride at that end of the floor led Alabama to the nation's third-highest defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.

Without needing to handle the basketball, he'll be a much better natural fit next to the Hornets' floor general, Ball.

Wojnarowski referenced that natural fit in his initial report, and it was why Miller shot to such a heavy favorite on Wednesday. However, there's a defined ceiling with Miller as a prospect to this point. Miller isn't really a supremely comfortable ballhandler or playmaker, as the assist total would tell you.

His ceiling could be that of a Jayson Tatum -- a long wing scorer who has grown into one of the better defenders at his position. Tatum's ballhandling and playmaking has seemed to improve each year, too.

However, I also see a floor closer to a former top-five pick in recent years -- De'Andre Hunter. Hunter has the tools, but his lack of playmaking and aggression on the offensive end has reportedly led to the Atlanta Hawks considering dealing him as soon as tonight.

That's why Charlotte might choose to take the more dynamic prospect and work from there.

What Should We Expect?

Obviously, Charania's report is a total changeup from yesterday, but it's reflective of the true predicament the Hornets have.

Henderson has the higher upside, and at the +470 odds he had on FanDuel Sportsbook yesterday, a dart made sense.

If I were in the Hornets' seat, I'd draft Henderson with a trade of LaMelo Ball down the road in mind. Ball's 51.0% effective field goal rate (eFG%) was the 17th-worst among qualified NBA players who averaged 30.0 minutes per game last year, and he plays notably terrible defense.

In my eyes, that's not a talent worth serving, and it doesn't make me want to go fit (Miller) over upside and talent (Henderson).

There's also the elephant in the room that Henderson and the New Orleans Pelicans have a mutual interest in bringing him to NOLA. There's an obvious, high-upside chip that could come back the Hornets' way -- Zion Williamson. With Zion, Charlotte wouldn't be sacrificing youth or fit next to Ball while nabbing someone who already has put forth All-Star-level production. As we know, Zion's injury and conditioning issues are the downside.

Charania's report stated no final decision has been made yet, so this market is temporarily open, alive, and well. If there's no trade made, either of these names could be realistically called after Wenbanyama's.

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