NBA DFS Picks: Sunday 11/10/24
If you're looking to have some fun this basketball season, NBA DFS on FanDuel has you covered.
With NBA DFS, you can put your hoops knowledge to the test and ride with players you think will go off in a given night.
To help you along the way, we've got a bunch of tools here at FanDuel Research. Specifically, our NBA DFS projections, powered by numberFire, update throughout the day to reflect current news.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report unless otherwise noted.
NBA DFS Picks for Today
Guards
Top Priorities
Kyrie Irving ($8,200)
There are several Dallas Mavericks projecting well right now. They could explode to a chalk-a-palooza if Luka Doncic (groin) ends up sitting Sunday in Denver.
One of them is Kyrie Irving, who is coming through our NBA DFS projections with a solid expectation of 41.6 FanDuel points (FDP) in 38.1 minutes. However, Kyrie's rate of FDP skyrockets to 51.5 per 36 in floor situations without Luka.
Irving is especially one to target when the Denver Nuggets allow the 11th-most FDP per game to point guards.
Tyler Herro ($7,500)
The Miami Heat are a mess without Jimmy Butler.
Butler's reduced 23.1% usage rate this season makes less of a difference than previous ones, but Tyler Herro undoubtedly has gotten the biggest leap this season when Buckets has been off the floor. He's posted 51.5 FDP per 36 minutes on a 28.9% usage rate.
A date with the fearsome Minnesota Timberwolves defense isn't ideal, but Miami is an excellent place to pick up backcourt pieces this evening. Terry Rozier ($6,000) and Josh Richardson ($4,100) should also see bumps in Butler's stead.
Others to Consider
Tyus Jones ($5,400)
Though off to an improved start, the 7-2 Phoenix Suns will be missing Kevin Durant (foot) from tonight's game, and center Jusuf Nurkic is questionable. Tyus Jones has only topped 15 points once this season beside a trio of prolific scorers, but this could be a spot where he's asked to do more.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,900)
Though I believe Doncic ends up playing, Spencer Dinwiddie would encroach free-square territory at point guard if he doesn't. Dinwiddie is already projected for 20.3 FDP in 27.6 minutes with Doncic in the fold, and he'd log well over 30 minutes if the stat-stuffer can't go.
Wings
Top Priorities
Devin Booker ($8,400) and Bradley Beal ($6,400)
An injury as impactful as Kevin Durant's is going to force movement on the slate, and it's no shock where most of the Suns' usage goes when he's off the floor.
Devin Booker holds a team-best 28.4% usage rate in 71 minutes without Durant this season, but Bradley Beal has seen the largest relevant upgrade in that category (4.5 percentage points). The former has posted 46.6 FDP in these floor situations to Beal's 32.7.
There doesn't need to be a debate when you can select both at either forward or guard, but Beal should be significantly more popular at the lower salary. If Luka sits and forces Kyrie into chalk territory, I want to make Booker a priority.
Klay Thompson ($4,800)
If Luka plays, our projections might be overselling Klay Thompson.
Thompson is a one-category wing at this stage outside of a handful of boards, so things can go south quickly if his shot isn't falling. We've seen that in three of his last seven contests below 20 FDP.
However, Doncic sitting is where things get interesting. He's actually posted 30.9 FDP per 36 minutes with increased ball-handling duties in those situations.
I'd be remiss not to mention our projections' top value play of the day, but I see him as particularly sensitive to the update around the Mavs' point guard.
Others to Consider
Jerami Grant ($6,300)
I wrote up Jerami Grant in my Sunday NBA best bets for points and rebounds. He's in an excellent matchup for those; the Memphis Grizzlies are a bottom-10 team in allowing both to power forwards. The wing might get ousted for superior options later, but his projection of 31.9 FDP is solid.
Caleb Martin ($4,900)
Caleb Martin is primed to get lost in today's fresher injury news, but he keeps quietly eclipsing before this great matchup. The Charlotte Hornets' abysmal defense could make for a fourth straight game over 21 FDP.
Bigs
Top Priorities
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000)
When Ja Morant (foot) was off the floor for the Grizzlies a year ago, Jaren Jackson was a must-play. Does this injury jumpstart his slow start in 2024-25?
Triple J averaged 43.8 FDP per 36 minutes in those situations a year ago, and he's upped that rate to 53.0 per 36 minutes in a modest sample (128 minutes) this season. Jackson's night production has been hindered by Santi Aldama and Zach Edey, but this floor setup gives him more breathing room to score.
The Portland Trail Blazers are 26th in adjusted defensive rating (aDRTG), per Dunks & Threes, so this is a workable matchup for the big man, too. I love targeting him at a big spot when we should have boatloads of value.
Daniel Gafford ($5,200)
Dereck Lively (shoulder) is doubtful and expected to miss a fourth straight game, and someone on Dallas has to guard Nikola Jokic.
That someone should be Daniel Gafford should he stay out of foul trouble. Gafford hasn't topped 23 minutes yet in these situations without Lively, but Jokic's presence is why our projections expect 24.4 minutes tonight.
Gafford is a high-risk, high-reward value play at the pivot. He averages 40.8 FDP per 36 minutes in floor situations without Luka, but playing time will always be an obstacle. I almost never roster him because of this, but his defensive assignment has piqued my interest.
Others to Consider
Jakob Poeltl ($7,600)
The Toronto Raptors are awful, but that hasn't stopped Jakob Poeltl's breakout campaign. Poeltl has posted 15.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per 36 minutes to begin the season. Behind an expected 14.9 points and 11.9 rebounds from our projections, he's a high-floor option at center.
Santi Aldama ($6,000)
Santi Aldama sees Memphis' second-largest bump in usage rate without Ja Morant (1.7 percentage points), setting the stage to double up on Grizzlies at the big positions if you so choose. Over 32 FDP in 6 of 10 contests this year, Aldama might just flat be undersalaried regardless of the injury to his point guard, too.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.