NBA Championship Odds Update: A Dream Start for Boston

With at least 11 games played by every team, the opening month of the 2023-24 NBA season is almost complete.

There is a long way to go still, but we have now seen a glimpse of what we can expect from each team this season.

Let's take a look at the NBA Championship odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and how they have shifted since early September.

Here is a full list of the odds, with a breakdown of the top five teams.

Boston Celtics (+370)

After a busy offseason, the Boston Celtics have had a dream start to their 2023-24 campaign. Since our last update, their odds have improved from +470 to +370, and they have increased the gap between their odds and the odds of the next closest team.

Some of that improvement had to do with the Celtics' acquisition of Jrue Holiday, but most of it is due to how flawlessly Boston's new arrivals have fit in. Thirteen games into the season, the Celtics sit at 11-3, the best record in basketball. After opening the year with a five-game winning streak, they dropped two in a row to Minnesota and Philadelphia but quickly got back on track, winning five of their next six.

According to Dunks & Threes, Boston ranks first in adjusted offensive rating (aORTG) and adjusted defense rating (aDRTG). On adjusted net rating (aNET), they hold a 3.5-point lead over the next closest team, the 76ers. Last season, that same margin was the difference between the best aNET (also the Celtics) and the Knicks in sixth. They've accomplished this despite a three-point shooting percentage (36.4%) that ranks 13th and is slightly behind their percentage from last season (37.7%).

Holiday is averaging 12.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game while shooting 34.9% from behind the arc. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 19.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game while shooting 33.3% from three. So far, so good for the Celtics' key offseason additions.

The Celtics' starters have a combined plus/minus of +8.4, the best in the league. The next closest team is the 76ers at +6.3. Boston's bench plus/minus of +2.2 is fourth-best.

There's a lot of season left, but at the moment, the Celtics are the best team in basketball and deserving title favorites.

Milwaukee Bucks (+420)

The Milwaukee Bucks also had a busy offseason, but unlike Boston, they have not enjoyed a near-perfect start to their campaign. Since our last update, their odds have improved from +600 to +420, driven by their trade for superstar Damian Lillard.

Milwaukee sits at 10-4, with their losses coming to Orlando, Indiana, Toronto, and Atlanta. After starting their season 2-2, the Bucks are 8-2 since against a strength of schedule that ranks 22nd, per Dunks & Threes.

Offense has been a strength for Milwaukee -- they rank fifth in aORTG and are averaging the third-most points per game this season (120.8). They have the fifth-best three-point shooting percentage (38.1%) and third-best field goal percentage (49.8%). They've accomplished this despite Lillard shooting 39.5% from the field, the lowest average of his career, and 32.7% from behind the arc, second-lowest average of his career. As Lillard logs more minutes with his new team, there should be some positive regression coming, which would further boost Milwaukee's already prolific offense.

The problem for the Bucks has been their defense. After their decision to trade away Holiday, one of the league's best defenders, this was an area of concern entering the season. Milwaukee ranks 18th in aDRTG, and they are allowing 117.7 points per game, 11.1 more points per game than Boston. The Bucks are surrendering the seventh-most fast break points per game (15.9).

The Bucks' bench has been a strength -- their plus/minus of +2.5 ranks third and they are playing the fourth-most minutes per game (20.0). That has been offset by a starting unit whose plus/minus of +0.6 ranks 17th.

Despite those concerns, the Bucks still sit at 10-4 and have the second-best odds to win the title. They have plenty of time to fix things on defense and have been an exceptional offensive team despite Lillard shooting well below his career average.

Denver Nuggets (+440)

Compared to the other teams on this list, the Nuggets had a quiet offseason. Since our last update, their championship odds have improved, from +480 to +440, but they moved from second to third, with Milwaukee and Boston making larger leaps.

Through 14 games, Denver sits at 10-4, tied for second in the West with Oklahoma City. They have faced the 16th-toughest schedule thus far. The homecourt advantage that strongly supported their title run last season remains intact as the Nuggets are a perfect 7-0 at Ball Arena so far this season. On the road, they are 3-4.

Like Milwaukee, the Nuggets have been better on offense than on defense so far this season, but they rank better than the Bucks in both categories. Denver ranks fourth in aORTG (117.0) and 9th in aDRTG (111.9) for an aNET of +5.1 that ranks third.

Nikola Jokic is once again putting together an MVP season, averaging 27.4 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game despite shooting a career-worst 29.7% from behind the arc. He is the current favorite to win MVP (+200), per the NBA MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, with a decent gap between Jokic and the next closest player, Dallas' Luka Doncic (+550).

Outside of road struggles, the only other slight concern for Denver is their bench. The Nuggets' starters have the fourth-best plus/minus in the league (+5.2), but their bench's plus-minus ranks 14th (+0.3).

The Nuggets have lost two of their last three, but all in all, they appear on track to be a serious contender for the NBA championship, matching their expectations when the season began a month ago.

Phoenix Suns (+650)

Another team that had a very busy offseason was the Phoenix Suns. Since our last update, the Suns' championship odds have remained exactly the same, as has their position on this list. The main difference is the gap between Phoenix in fourth and the team in fifth. In September, it was the Miami Heat (+1000), now it's the Golden State Warriors (+1400). As it stands, it is a four-team race for the title, from an odds perspective.

Evaluating the Suns' season to this point is a difficult task because they simply haven't been healthy. They sit at 7-6, good for seventh in the West, but Devin Booker has missed eight games and Bradley Beal has missed 10. Phoenix is trending in the right direction -- after a 2-4 start, they have won five of their last seven, including three in a row.

Despite their injuries, the Suns rank ninth in aORTG (115.1). Like Milwaukee, their offense is covering for their defense, which checks in 17th in aDRTG (113.5). Their aNET (+1.5) ranks 11th. After a slow start, Phoenix has done a decent job of getting to this point while missing multiple stars.

Kevin Durant has been a huge reason why. He ranks third in minutes per game (37.2), second in points per game (31.4), and is shooting an absurd 49.2% from behind the arc while averaging 4.7 three-point attempts per contest.

A silver lining in this injury-marred start for the Suns has been its help in answering one of their biggest question marks entering the season -- their depth. Forced to go further into their bench than they would have otherwise, the Suns' bench has a plus/minus of -0.6, only slightly behind Denver's.

Phoenix's odds are heavily supported by the assumption of what this roster is capable of when the Suns' big three are finally healthy. Missing two of those three for more than half their games thus far, Phoenix has still posted decent metrics. Booker is back in action now, but Beal is expected to miss at least the next two and a half weeks.

Golden State Warriors (+1400)

The Warriors' current standing is that of the "best of the rest". At +1400, they form a mini-tier with the 76ers (+1500) that is well below the contenders above them but also well above the two Los Angeles sides, who both sit at +2100.

Golden State's odds are the same as they were in our last update, but they now rank fifth -- up from seventh -- with the Heat and the Lakers moving behind them.

A week and a half ago, this update may have looked very different for the Warriors. They opened the season winning five of their first seven games. Since then, they have lost six of seven and now sit at 7-8, good for 10th in the West.

Unlike the Suns, they don't have availability to blame. Stephen Curry missed two games, and Draymond Green has missed six, but outside of that, their starters have been available. The good news is the metrics say that the Warriors are a better side than their record indicates.

Golden State has been a slightly better team on offense than defense. They rank 8th in aORTG (115.1), 13th in aDRTG (112.4), and 9th in aNET (+2.7). They have faced the hardest schedule in the league thus far, per Dunks & Three.

All of their losses have come to teams ranked inside the top 11 in aNET, with seven of those losses coming against teams ranked inside the top seven. Of those seven, two were by three points and one went to overtime. Close losses to good teams is the story of the Warriors' season thus far.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.