NBA Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays for Friday 12/22/23

As we inch toward the marquee Christmas Day slate, there are six NBA games on Friday, and all six are on FanDuel's main slate for NBA DFS, which starts at 7:00 p.m. ET.

In this piece, we'll look at some of today's best bets -- including player props -- as well as the top NBA DFS plays of the slate.

Which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers

Under 230.5 (-110)

The Philadelphia 76ers have been good at pretty much everything so far in 2023-24, including defense. Philly ranks 4th in adjusted defensive rating, per Dunks & Threes, and they're also close (11th) to the league average in adjusted pace. Three of Philly's last four games have ended up under this 230.5-point total.

Sitting 21st in adjusted pace, the Toronto Raptors aren't going to speed things up, and they've been struggling of late on the offensive end, producing outputs of only 104, 114 and 104 points over their last three. A date with the Sixers' elite D isn't likely to help Toronto's ailing offense, one that -- for the season -- ranks 21st in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in adjusted offensive rating.

numberFire's model loves the under in this one, projecting the under to win out 72.2% of the time. numberFire's projected total for this game is just 218.7 points.

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

Hawks Moneyline (+100)

So far this campaign, the Miami Heat have looked a lot more like an 8 seed than the team that went to last season's NBA Finals -- even if their 16-12 record isn't too shabby.

Miami sits 17th in adjusted net rating (+0.4) and has been just 12-16 against the spread. They're right around the league average in both adjusted offensive rating (16th) and adjusted defensive rating (15th).

Atlanta has been a brutal 7-19 against the spread, but their adjusted net rating of +0.7 is a bit in front of Miami's.

Plus, I've buried the lede here -- Jimmy Butler is out today for the Heat. He's obviously a vital cog for Miami.

Butler has missed four games this year, and Miami is 1-3 in those games, although the one win came Wednesday versus the Orlando Magic. Without Butler on the floor this year, the Heat's offensive rating is 111.8, which pales in comparison to their 119.7 offensive rating with Butler on the floor. The impact is similar on the defensive end, as well. Opponents have a 118.1 offensive rating with Jimmy off the floor, compared to a 113.5 offensive rating when Butler is on the court.

Atlanta is expected to have its key pieces, and the Hawks have been solid on the road this year, going 8-8 away from home. They also score 35.0% of their points from threes -- the seventh-highest clip -- and they could thrive from deep today against a Miami squad that permits the fifth-highest three-point attempt rate (41.9%).

With this game listed at nearly a pick'em, Atlanta is the side I want to be on.

NBA Prop Bets

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (+130)

By his out-of-this-world standards, Nikola Jokic is in a wee bit of a funk lately.

Over his past three games, Jokic is averaging just 21.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists. Those are clearly fantastic numbers for almost any other player, but given that Jokic is averaging 26.5 points, 12.4 boards and 9.3 assists for the season, he is slumping a little.

He can right the ship today against the Brooklyn Nets, and I like this +130 number for him to record a triple-double.

Jokic's rebound prop is set at 13.5, and his points prop is at 26.5 -- so his getting a triple-double will probably come down to assists.

Jokic averages 16.4 potential assists per night, the fifth-most among all players, and he puts up 9.3 assists per game for the year. His assists prop tonight is set at 9.5 with -113 odds on each side.

The Nets give up 4.1 assists per game to centers, which is right at the league average. But when they played Joel Embiid -- who is a decent comp for Jokic as a center who has the offense run through him -- earlier this year, Embiid handed out nine assists. Embiid averages only 5.9 assists per night. The nine dimes are tied for his second-most in any game this year.

Also aiding Jokic's triple-double case is that this game has just a 4.5-point spread, so there's not much risk of Jokic logging reduced minutes due to a blowout.

Saddiq Bey Over 1.5 Made Threes (-180)

Earlier, I mentioned how Atlanta could feast from three against Miami. This prop is one way to take advantage of that.

Atlanta chucks a lot of three-balls. For the season, they are eighth in threes attempted per night (37.9), and as I said before, the Hawks get 35.0% of their points from beyond the arc, the 7th-most. That meshes well with a Miami defense that concedes the 5th-highest three-point attempt rate (41.9%).

Saddiq Bey has been starting for Atlanta and playing big minutes, averaging 37.5 minutes per game over his past nine outings. He's averaging 6.4 three-point tries per game in that span, hitting exactly 2.0 of them per game.

Bey has faced Miami once previously this season, and he took 7 threes, nailing 2 of them -- and that was in a bench role, too, as he played only 24 minutes that night.

numberFire's model projects Bey to go 2.6 of 7.3 from deep tonight.

If you don't love the -180 number, you could take a shot on Bey to Make 3+ Threes at +180.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Devin Booker ($10,100) -- The Phoenix Suns-Sacramento Kings clash looks like the DFS game of the night as it boasts a 244.0-point total and 3.5-point spread. Phoenix figures to be a two-man show with Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal sidelined. With those two off the court this year, Devin Booker has recorded a 34.4% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. He and De'Aaron Fox ($9,900) are a fun game stack.

Stephen Curry ($8,800) -- The top implied total of the slate belongs to the Golden State Warriors (129.5 points). The big worry is blowout risk as the Dubs are 12.5-point home favorites over a Washington Wizards team on the second leg of a back-to-back. Stephen Curry projects well, though, with numberFire pegging him to score 45.6 FanDuel points (5.18 per $1,000), and the Wiz -- who are first in pace and next to last in defensive rating -- are about as good of a matchup as there is. If Curry gets his full minutes, he can break the slate.

Jaden Hardy ($4,900) -- The Dallas Mavericks are without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, which makes them the go-to spot for value. With those two off the floor this year, Jaden Hardy owns a 31.7% usage rate and generates 46.7 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. Assuming Hardy starts, he's close to a free square tonight from a process standpoint. numberFire projects him for 30.1 FanDuel points (6.14 per $1,000).

Wings

Tyler Herro ($8,100) -- With Jimmy Butler out last game, Tyler Herro popped for 44.1 FanDuel points, taking 17 shots, and that came against a Magic team that is 5th in defensive rating. Tonight, Butler is out again, and the matchup is significantly better as Miami gets the Hawks, a side that is 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. Shooting guards have torched Atlanta all year, putting up 44.1 FanDuel points per game against them, the 4th-most.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,300) -- Tim Hardaway Jr. is the other Dallas player who stands to see a big boost in role with Kyrie and Luka out. In that split this season, which is a small sample of 63 minutes, THJ has handled a colossal usage rate of 43.1%. Again, that's over a small sample, but the larger point remains -- Hardaway should be very busy tonight against the Houston Rockets.

Deni Avdija ($5,500) -- Deni Avdija can serve as a modest-salaried bring-back piece to any Warriors you roster. While this is a smash spot for Golden State, it's not a bad matchup for Washington as the Warriors are 17th in defense rating and 13th in pace.

Bigs

Nikola Jokic ($12,200) -- It seems like Jokic and Embiid ($12,900) are on so many slates together, and that's the case again tonight. As always, both profile as excellent plays, with numberFire projecting Embiid for 59.8 FanDuel points and Jokic for 59.3. No other player has a projection above 50.0. Between the two, I side with Jokic due to the lower salary.

Alperen Sengun ($8,400) -- The Mavericks have been a friendly matchup for centers as Dallas surrenders the 9th-most FanDuel points per game to the position (55.7). That number has climbed a little -- to 57.1 -- over the last seven games as Dereck Lively has been out. Alperen Sengun underwhelmed as a chalky play on Wednesday, and while the blowout risk is real with Dallas short-handed -- Houston is a 9.0-point favorite -- Sengun could crush in this matchup.

Drew Eubanks ($4,100) -- Drew Eubanks is popping in projections due to Nurkic's absence. numberFire has Eubanks going for 27.0 FanDuel points (6.59 per $1,000) and ranks him as the top point-per-dollar play on the slate (as of early Friday). Thankfully, he's eligible at power forward, too, which is a big help. He's a low-salary way to get exposure to what should be a shootout between the Suns and Kings.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.