NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 2/6/24: The Day of the Underdogs

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat

Magic +3 (-108)

The Orlando Magic head south for an in-state clash against the Miami Heat. Orlando will defend their three-game winning streak while Miami is looking to get back on track after going 1-5 over their previous six home games. The theme of tonight could be a slow-paced, low-scoring game with both teams ranking among the top 12 in defensive rating and among the top 9 for the league's slowest paces of play. This certainly lines up with the 212.5 total.

The Magic tout the best defense in this matchup with the fifth-best rating in the league, but the Heat's three-point shooting could pose a problem. Miami has the ninth-best three-point percentage in the Association; slowing their three-point barrage could be the key to success. Fortunately, Orlando could pass the test with flying colors as they give up the sixth-fewest three-point makes and fifth-fewest three-point shots per contest.

They have even tightened their perimeter defense with opponents shooting only 29.0% from deep while averaging 9.7 made threes each contest during the Magic's three-game winning streak. For reference, Orlando gives up 11.6 made threes per game on the season; allowing only 9.7 made threes would lead the league by a landslide as the best mark is held by the Indiana Pacers at 10.6.

Winning the possession could be a huge leg up in a slow-paced game. Both teams are among the top six in the most field goal attempts with 0-4 seconds left on the shot clock; we could see plenty of possessions taken deep into the shot clock. The Magic could have another advantage in the rebounding department with the eighth-best offensive rebounding percentage and third-best defensive rebounding percentage. The Heat have the fourth-best defensive rebounding percentage, but their ability to generate second-chance opportunities is alarming with the sixth-worst offensive rebounding percentage.

With four straight covers against the spread (ATS) on the road, I believe Orlando will continue their success with another cover thanks to their three-point defense and ability to gather extra possessions with offensive rebounding.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz

Jazz +3 (-110)

The Utah Jazz could be another underdog worth backing ATS. They play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are tied for the best record in the Western Conference at 35-15. This is a huge test for Utah, who is 1-3 over their past four contests, but they seem capable of another cover following Sunday's impressive 123-108 win against the Milwaukee Bucks.

With 117.7 PPG (11th-most), the Jazz's clear calling card is their offense. Tuesday will not be a breeze for the offense by any means as the Thunder boast the fourth-best defensive rating. However, Utah has a pretty well-rounded unit that can attack opposing teams in a multitude of ways. For example, they can attack the rim with the fourth-most points in the paint per game. The Jazz can also step outside and knock down threes with the 10th-most attempts per contest.

The latter could prove to be a problem for OKC as they give up the fifth-most three-point shots each game. Over their last five games, opponents are shooting 43.0% from beyond the arc while averaging 13.6 made threes per game against the Thunder. Utah has totaled 13.7 three-point makes each contest over their previous three games. This could spell big games for the Jazz's top shooters, including Lauri Markkanen, who has made 9 of his last 19 three-point shots (47.4%).

Oklahoma City is a very balanced team, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive rating. But as David and Goliath taught us, no one is invincible.

One of the Thunder's clear weaknesses is rebounding with the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage and third-worst offensive rebounding. Dominating in this department could be what elevates Utah to a cover, for they have the second-best offensive rebounding percentage and total the eighth-most defensive rebounds per game.

The Jazz could have enough advantages to build off of their impressive win over the Bucks with another cover ATS.

Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns

Under 243.5 (-110)

The Milwaukee Bucks average the second-most PPG at 123.7 while carrying the fourth-best offensive rating. Milwaukee's opponent for tonight has excelled over their last four games as the Suns have totaled 128.5 PPG during the span. The 243.5 total certainly lines up with the potential of both offenses, which are loaded with star power. The Bucks are led by Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.3 PPG) and Damian Lillard (24.9 PPG), and Kevin Durant (28.3 PPG) and Devin Booker (27.8 PPG) are the Suns' top scorers.

While both teams are certainly capable of lighting up the scoreboard, this total feels too high for me. First off, Lillard is questionable with an ankle sprain. Of course, Milwaukee's offense could stumble if Lillard is out of the lineup as he ranks second on the team with a 27.7% usage rate.

Taking the under goes further than just Lillard's injury status, though. The under has hit in four straight games and is 5-1 over the Bucks' previous six games. During the six-game span, the Bucks have totaled only 116.8 PPG; that's a big drop compared to their season average of 123.7 PPG.

Phoenix also plays at the 10th-slowest pace in the league while averaging the 3rd-fewest shots per game. While Milwaukee has the 12th-worst defensive rating, some stats suggest that this defense could be a little better than most of us think. This includes the Bucks touting the 10th-best mark in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which could be crucial against the Suns' who have the 5th-best eFG%.

numberFire's projections are also suggesting the under. Phoenix's slow pace of play and Milwaukee's recent dip in scoring points to the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.