NBA Betting Picks for Monday 2/26/24: Will the Grizzlies Roar as Home Underdogs?
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Best Bets
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers
Over 244.5 (-110)
Despite the Indiana Pacers touting the NBA's second-best offensive rating, the crowd could be on the under for tonight's matchup against the Toronto Raptors. The under is 7-3 over the Pacers' past 10 games, and numberFire's daily game projections are slightly leaning into the under. I'm going against the grain by taking the over; here's why the Pacers-Raptors could storm to over 244.5 points.
Indiana has the scoring tools to torch nearly any defense, and Toronto has the 10th-worst defensive rating in the league while giving up the 12th-most points per game (PPG) at 117.4. The Raptors' interior defense is an area to circle, for they give up the sixth-most points in the paint and have the seventh-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage.
The Pacers could be like a bull in a china shop tonight, tearing apart Toronto's flimsy paint defense. Indiana totals the most points in the paint in the Association and attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket. The Raptors surrender the ninth-most shots within five feet of the basket, as well.
Now that we've laid out the Pacers' potential path to success, let's look at Toronto. The Raptors have been scorching from three-point land, making 29 of their last 70 three-point looks (41.4%). However, Toronto may need to score in different ways with Indiana giving up the fewest three-point attempts and makes per contest.
Fortunately, the Raptors' offense could be just dandy with the Pacers allowing the most points in the paint per game. Indiana also surrenders the most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. Plus, Toronto tends to lean on attacking the rim with the 5th-most points in the paint (compared to the 10th-fewest three-point shots per game).
This matchup could be setting up for a ton of easy looks around the rim. Despite the under trend in recent Pacers games, give me the over.
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies Moneyline (+110)
The Brooklyn Nets against the Memphis Grizzlies may lack intrigue for most as the Nets are 11th in the Eastern Conference while the Grizzlies are 13th in the Western Conference. But this matchup carries some juicy odds with Memphis listed as a home underdog. Don't sleep on this clash as the Grizzlies could be an excellent moneyline pick (+110).
First off, Brooklyn is 2-8 and 2-7-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games. They've especially struggled on their current road trip, losing three straight away games while failing to cover the spread in each contest. The offense has been like a stick stuck in the mud, totaling only 88.3 PPG while shooting only 37.4% from the field and 26.2% from three over their last three games.
While Memphis has certainly struggled this season, they still possess an exceptional defense with the 10th-best rating while giving up the 9th-fewest PPG (112.8). The Nets have been a high-volume three-point shooting team with the 8th-most shots per game, and the Grizzlies feature a solid perimeter defense with the 13th-fewest three-point attempts allowed each contest. When you consider Brooklyn's recent struggles from three, the ice-cold stretch could continue.
Memphis is hard-pressed to score at times with the worst offensive rating in the Association. However, they could do enough to pull off the upset win as they attempt the fifth-most threes while Brooklyn has the fifth-worst marks in three-point makes allowed per game and in opponent three-point percentage.
The Grizzlies have cashed in at least 42.0% of their threes in two of the last three games. This could mean big games for Luke Kennard, who is shooting 48.7% from three this month, and Jaren Jackson Jr. -- he comes off a 29-point outing.
In line with numberFire's game projections, I like Memphis to pull off the upset as home underdogs.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.