NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Thursday 12/14/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Cavaliers +9.0 (-110)

In a rematch of Tuesday's game, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Jayson Tatum led Boston to a seven-point victory earlier this week, but the Donovan Mitchell-backed Cavs have never made things easy for this Celtics team.

Last season, the Cavs went 3-1 against Boston, including three overtime victories. Each of their last five games against each other have been kept within nine points, with the average margin of victory on either side standing at five points.

Cleveland has the eighth-best defensive rating in the league, and though Boston ranks ahead of them in this regard (fourth-best), the Celtics have a tendency to get a bit bogged down by solid defenses. In fact, three of their five losses this season have come against teams that rank in the top 10 of defensive rating. The Celtics have failed to win by nine or more points in eight of their 11 games this season against teams that rank in the top 10 on defense.

Though the Cavs are once again without Evan Mobley, these smaller-ball lineups match up nicely and keep a consistent pace, which is a good sign as covering the spread is concerned.

We saw a few remarkably identical results from these teams on Tuesday, each squad finishing with 34 paint points and nine fast break points, and the Cavs went 19-45 from downtown while the Celtics finished 18-44. But we can see a major difference in free-throw attempts (FTA) -- Boston was granted 17 more foul shots than the Cavs. I think Cleveland makes it a point to even up FTAs with Boston in order to keep this one close tonight.

Max Strus Over 19.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

The Celtics give up the sixth-most three-point makes (3PM) per game this season and have given up the most 3PM in the league across the last two weeks.

This proved to be pretty fun for Max Strus on Tuesday. He drained five three-balls and netted 26 combined points and rebounds (PR).

With Mobley out the last three games, Strus is averaging 6.0 rebounds each night. This matchup should afford him to be in the 10-plus 3PA range, so an average three-point shooting and rebounding night paired with a layup or two would clear the over here quite handedly.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings

Thunder Moneyline (+110)

In what will likely be the most competitive game on the slate, the Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the Sacramento Kings for their second meeting this season.

The Kings won round one of this matchup by a score of 105-98, and they did so without De'Aaron Fox. But this time around, I think this is the Thunder's win for the taking.

The Thunder have the sixth-best offensive rating and fifth-best defensive rating in the league, while the Kings rank 14th and 20th in these respects -- to get OKC at plus odds is a good deal.

Sacramento is coming off a blowout loss against the Los Angeles Clippers and have gone 9-5 since they last faced the Thunder.

OKC has gone 10-3 since this time and have a league-best 7-3 road record. The Thunder struggle most against teams with a lot of size. Five of their seven losses this season and have been against pretty big lineups -- the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Philadelphia 76ers.

Though they may have a difficult time containing Domantas Sabonis, they should benefit from the smaller matchup.

Plus, if there's any young, clutch player that rivals, or even surpasses, a late-game De'Aaron Fox, it has to be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I think he and the Thunder will come out victorious tonight.

Domantas Sabonis Over 39.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)

Despite my faith in the Thunder, I think Sabonis is primed for a big game. On the season, he's averaging 37.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). But the Kings have been part of quite a few blowouts this year, limiting Sabonis' minutes at times.

This should be a close and competitive game that has Sabonis seeing plenty of court time -- numberFire is projecting 35.91 minutes from him. And in games where Sabonis has played even just 32-plus minutes this season, he is averaging 41.2 PRA.

The Thunder give up the second-most rebounds and 13th-most assists per game, plus the Kings are rocking with a hefty 123.5 implied team total. OKC let Sabonis get off 43.0 PRA in last month's matchup, and I expect him to hit the 40-plus PRA mark again.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 1.5 Made Threes (+180)

Miami Heat rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has drained two three-pointers in each of his last two games, is shooting the three-ball at a solid 40.3% clip, and is facing a Chicago Bulls team that gives up more 3PM than any other team in the NBA. I'll take the +180 odds here.

Jaquez has matched up against the Bulls twice this season. He went 1-1 and 3-4 from downtown in these respective games. The shot volume isn't appealing, but he has been playing 31.8 minutes over his last 16 games and is seeing an increased role on a Miami team that is currently without three of their starters.

The Bulls are begging teams to shoot the ball from behind the arc, giving up 38.8 3PA (second-most) per game this season. Duncan Robinson is the best three-point candidate on the Heat and drained 10 in two games against the Bulls this season. Robinson Over 3.5 Made Threes at -138 is a great move, but I like the odds on Jaquez here, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.