NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/26/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies

Grizzlies +7 (-112)
Mike Conley Over 18.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (+100)

This line stinks to high heaven, but I've seen the Memphis Grizzlies handed enough huge numbers at this stage to know it's not still preseason bias.

While the 3-12 Grizz are only catching seven at home today against the best squad in the West, I think we can start to buy them as a better -- but not great -- version. Memphis has an improved -4.7 net rating with Santi Aldama back and on the floor compared to their -9.2 net rating when he's off the floor, and it makes sense with the spacing he gives them on offense.

On the other side, I've got nothing bad to say about the West's best, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have this one sandwiched between tournament games. They lost to the Sacramento Kings on Friday and draw the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday. It's a logical letdown spot.

numberFire's model believes the Grizzlies cover 78.4% of the time here, which is immense value against standard pick 'em odds.

In a remotely competitive affair, I love targeting Memphis with point guards. They're allowing the eighth-most points, most rebounds, and fourth-most assists to the position. With that in mind, Mike Conley -- in a revenge spot -- is projected for 19.0 combined PRA by numberFire, and I especially see value when part of Conley's minute risk could be tied to the competitiveness of this game.

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic

Jalen Suggs Over 15.5 Points and Assists (-120)
Mark Williams Over 9.5 Rebounds (-113)

numberFire and I disagree on this total. I lean toward the over, and it leans toward the under. We'll just take player props from it -- which is never a bad call in a Charlotte Hornets affair.

Once again, Charlotte combines the league's seventh-highest pace factor with its fifth-worst defensive rating. They're a showcase for shootouts; it's just about the opponent on the other side. Totals can be somewhat ambiguous for the Orlando Magic, though. Orlando's pace (12th) is solid, but they're also tied for the league's best defensive rating (106.8).

As you'd expect, it was easy to find a target on Charlotte's side. They're ceding the fifth-most points and sixth-most assists to two guards, and Jalen Suggs is pretty firmly locked into that role for the Magic. He's logged at least 27 minutes in six of Orlando's last seven contests as Markelle Fultz remains out of the lineup. numberFire projects Suggs for 16.2 PA tonight.

On the other side, Orlando is a bottom-five matchup for most positions, but they are allowing the ninth-most rebounds to centers. Charlotte's Mark Williams can help us with that averaging 13.7 rebounds per 36 minutes as is.

numberFire has Williams projected for 11.1 boards on Sunday, showing tremendous value against these 52.8% implied odds.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 220.5 (-110)

The Cleveland Cavaliers just got back Donovan Mitchell, but the signature piece of their team returned a while ago.

I've been buying unders in Cavs games since Jarrett Allen returned earlier this month to full-time duty. When Allen is on the floor, Cleveland has a 112.0 defensive rating compared to 114.4 without him. They've rejoined the pantheon of quality defenses in the NBA, and the Toronto Raptors are firmly there already.

Toronto has a 112.5 defensive rating overall (12th-best in the NBA), and they'll help this case as they continue to struggle to score away from Scotiabank Arena. They have just a 108.4 offensive rating on the road.

As you'd expect, these aren't get-out-and-run teams, either. Toronto is tied for 17th in pace, and Cleveland is 22nd.

numberFire's model expects an under 70.6% of the time in this one.

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

Spurs +12 (-112)
Aaron Gordon 2+ Threes Made (+370)

Sports bettors often fight reality, and the reality is the Denver Nuggets are an absurd team to lay 12 points with against anybody right now, and 72% of the money at FanDuel is doing just that.

Since Jamal Murray went down, Denver has a +1.0 net rating that ranks 14th in the NBA. They're a thoroughly average basketball team without him, and now, Nikola Jokic has made an appearance on the injury report with back pain -- likely from carrying those around him. Denver is 5-11 against the spread (ATS) as bettors continue to deny reality.

The San Antonio Spurs, losers of 11 straight, are never a fun team to back, but we saw them pop for consecutive road wins in Phoenix, and they are 3-4 ATS away from home this year. Plus, San Antonio has lost by 12 or fewer points in five of their six previous defeats, so they're keeping games far closer than this against better teams than Denver.

If this game is remotely close, I love this cheeky look at Aaron Gordon's three-ball prop. Gordon is averaging 4.0 3PA per game, but he's only made multiple in one game this season. Yes, he's that poor at shooting them. However, the matchup won't get better than this when San Antonio cedes a league-worst 3.2 threes per game to opposing power forwards.

Part of the value from this Gordon prop comes from expecting a short night of work; why not take a dart if we like the Spurs to cover anyway?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.