NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 1/28/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers

John Konchar Over 12.5 Points and Rebounds (-102)

The Memphis Grizzlies are a tough handicap for me. Down quite a few key pieces, they're 8-5 straight up (SU) in January. Instead, let's turn to a prop in this guy.

Memphis should see a massive uptick in possessions tonight -- as most Indiana Pacers opponents do. Indiana's league-best pace factor (105.4) turns their games into a stat-collecting funhouse. This line for John Konchar, filling in due to injury for Luke Kennard, stood out.

Konchar's best skill is his rebounding, averaging 9.43 per 36 minutes from the small forward spot. It's a must when taking a combo with him given a dastardly low usage rate (9.8%). Still, this could be the matchup for him to score. Indiana has allowed fourth-most points and fourth-most rebounds to opposing threes.

numberFire's projections list Konchar with an underwhelming 6.8 points and 6.0 rebounds in a vacuum, but that would clear this even-money prop. I think he's undervalued in this environment given tough showings against the stellar Miami Heat and Orlando Magic defenses.

Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic

Under 227.5 (-112)

It's hard to envision a total encroaching 230 points when these teams matchup.

The aforementioned Magic are indeed a stellar defense, holding the league's fifth-best overall rating (111.8). The visiting Phoenix Suns (115.3) aren't too far behind.

It's not like these teams play at an extreme tempo, either. Phoenix is tied for the 9th-slowest pace in the Association, and the Magic play at the 12th-slowest.

If I had to chalk this up to anything, it's bettors counting total points in recent, historic outbursts from Devin Booker. By and large, those will regress back to the mean in due time -- especially in matchups like this.

numberFire's model is expecting 216.9 total points at a median here and expects the under to cash 70.3% of the time. This is its favorite value bet of the day.

Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks

Bruce Brown Jr. Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113)
Saddiq Bey Over 13.5 Points (-105)

nF likes the under in this game with today's highest total (241.5), but we can still prod a solid scoring environment for props. These two stood out.

To the surprise of some, the Toronto Raptors have not only kept Bruce Brown Jr. from the trade of Pascal Siakam, but they've featured him. Brown logged 32 minutes as a starter last time out.

With that the case, he should do damage against the Atlanta Hawks. Beyond Atlanta's terrible defensive rating (119.8), the Hawks cede the 8th-most points, 10th-most rebounds, and most assists to the small forward position.

Brown Jr. is projected for 14.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on Sunday for 23.1 total PRA. The stat-stuffer could do it in a variety of ways, so I like taking the full combo.

On the other side, Saddiq Bey might be undervalued as Atlanta's three. Though preferring bigger samples, Toronto's recent trades have me looking at their metrics in the past 30 days, and it's not been great defensively. They've posted a 120.7 defensive rating (fourth-worst in the NBA) and allowed the fifth-most points per game to small forwards (23.8).

Bey isn't a star by any means, but he's projected for 16.4 points in 31.4 minutes on Sunday. That's well above this prop with juice slanted toward the under.

Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers +7 (-110)

While the Portland Trail Blazers are pitiful, this is a decent spot for them.

Frankly, it has more to do with the Chicago Bulls not being worthy of laying seven points on the road against anyone. Chicago has covered just 9 of their 22 road contests so far, and their net rating away from "The Windy City" (-6.5) is abysmal.

Portland is slightly better at home (-5.2 net rating) than their overall -9.2 net rating -- which you'd expect from a young team. They've also got a 36.8% outright win rate at home compared to a 23.1% win rate away from Moda Center.

This is pretty ugly, but it feels like the right side to take a couple of possessions as a cushion between two bad teams. numberFire expects Portland to cover this number 57.6% of the time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.