NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 1/14/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Best Bets
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat
Under 224.5 (-108)
This game should be closer to 200 total points than 230 given how these two teams play in their current floor conditions.
There's a bit of a risk that the return of LaMelo Ball will have the Charlotte Hornets playing faster most nights, but Ball and Buzz City just struggled to 99 points on Friday -- only continuing a wretched sample of offense. Over their last 10 games, Charlotte has the second-worst offensive rating (104.8) in the NBA.
They'll have to score into the Miami Heat's elite defense tonight. Miami has a superb 112.9 defensive rating (ninth in the NBA) over their last 10 despite Jimmy Butler still out due to a toe injury.
By and large, these are also two slow teams for the entire season. The Heat have the second-slowest pace factor in the NBA, and the Hornets are ninth-slowest.
numberFire's model projects the under to cash 65.2% of the time in this one, so there is plenty of wiggle room in case Ball adds a few possessions to this contest compared to the Hornets' recent sample.
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves ML (+110)
Paul George Under 23.5 Points (-115)
These are arguably the best two teams in the Western Conference, so I can't really fault anyone who feels a particular side will win out, but give me the Minnesota Timberwolves at home in this tilt.
Minnesota is 27-11 to lead the west at the moment, and they've done it on the back of the league's best defensive rating (108.3) by a good margin. It's been even better at home (102.5), too. If the Los Angeles Clippers are going to walk away with a road win, they'll have earned it considerably.
L.A.'s largely beaten up on the middle of the NBA standings, but a -56 point differential in combined losses to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics last month still leave me questioning their high-end ceiling against these top-shelf teams.
numberFire's model expects the T-Wolves to win 52.4% of the time as an underdog on Sunday, so they're a great value pick to win.
If they do impose their will defensively, look for some of the Clippers' studs to struggle. Paul George's points line stood out as one that could be a trap to avoid. George has met or eclipsed 23 points in all but one game this month while averaging 27.6 per game, yet his prop is just 23.5 points. Why?
Well, Minnesota allows the second-fewest points per game to shooting guards (20.4), and that's frightening when PG13 is bound to slow down from 50.7% shooting from three-point land this month at some point.
numberFire has George projected for just 22.3 points on Sunday; I'm siding with this contrarian under pick, as well.
Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks
Kings +4.5 (-110)
De'Aaron Fox Over 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)
The Milwaukee Bucks just don't deserve this love against quality teams. They're a far inferior version to prior years.
Milwaukee has just a +4.9 net rating this season, which is eighth-best in the NBA. They're closer to a team in the middle of the pack -- like the Sacramento Kings (+0.9) -- than a team at the top like the Celtics, Thunder, or Clippers. Yet, they're still a modest favorite in this one getting 67% of the bets and 70% of the money at FanDuel Sportsbook, so we'll take the points with Sacramento.
This is a great spot this season for Sacramento when looking at trends. They're 11-7 against the spread (ATS) on the road, and the Bucks are just 8-14 ATS at home. It's a perfect blend to believe they're undervalued -- especially coming off a 19-point loss to the Philadelphia 76ers sans Joel Embiid.
If they're going to cover, a monster night from De'Aaron Fox could be the reason why. Since acquiring Damian Lillard, the Bucks also acquired team positional issues defending point guards like Dame's Portland Trail Blazers had. Milwaukee is allowing the sixth-most points and sixth-most rebounds to point guards this season.
nF's model is a bit bearish on adding Fox's assist total for the full combo prop, but it is projecting Fox for 27.5 points and 4.5 assists (32.0 total PA) in this contest at a median. I'm not one to argue when liking Sactown's chances to keep things tight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.