NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/30/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz

Under 229.5 (-108)

This game just doesn't merit a total encroaching 230 points.

The Miami Heat are the more potent offense of the two, but their injury report is a mess. They've got five projected rotation players -- including Jimmy Butler (calf) -- listed as questionable to even suit up tonight against the Utah Jazz. Even at full strength, Miami's 115.7 offensive rating (14th in the NBA) isn't special.

On the other side, the Jazz are 24th in offensive rating (112.1), which might improve with key pieces back, but Miami's defense (113.5 rating) has been pretty stout.

Without special offense on either side, the pace factor doesn't check out for a 230-point total, either. Utah is 13th, and Miami is 27th as the fourth-slowest team in the league.

numberFire's model gives a four-star rating to the under in this contest, projecting 220.2 total points at a median.

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls

Tobias Harris Over 6.5 Rebounds (-108)

I'm surprised this line is even up.

The Philadelphia 76ers' injury report isn't yet submitted on the back-to-back, but one has to think Joel Embiid is likely out of this contest. If that's the case, plenty of Philadelphia options should see a boost to their counting stats, but Tobias Harris usually sees the largest uptick in the frontcourt.

Specifically on the glass, Harris averages 6.5 rebounds per 36 minutes with Embiid off the floor, per RotoGrinders' Court IQ tool. There's a reason to expect a slight increase tonight, though. The opposing Chicago Bulls allow the the most rebounds per game in the NBA to opposing power forwards (11.9).

Harris is projected for 6.8 rebounds in this one by numberFire. I'd hop on this line before Embiid's absence becomes official.

Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves

Lakers +5 (-112)
Under 225.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Lakers are a tough bet as a giant favorite, but this back-against-the-wall spot for Anthony Davis and LeBron James could be the spot to take them.

L.A. has a +0.0 net rating this season through some key lineup shifts, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are trending in the opposite direction. They've held just a +1.6 net rating this month despite a better mark (+5.7) overall.

However, in a defense-oriented tilt, it's interesting that the NBA's most popular team is actually the ignored side here. 53% of tickets and 68% of the money at FanDuel Sportsbook are backing the T-Wolves at home. That makes me feel better that the Lakers aren't losing value from fans heading to the window.

Most of all, the five points with Los Angeles are intrinsically more valuable when I'm expecting an ugly slog. In December, both of these clubs are top seven in defense rating, and they're both bottom-half squads in pace factor.

I'd hold off on this spread until close to tip-off when James is questionable with an illness the day after his 39th birthday, but if he's able to play against a Western Conference favorite, this tried and true duo are worth a look. As for the total, it'll likely drop if James is out; act quickly.

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

Over 242.5 (-110)
Stephen Curry Over 38.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113)

We can end with a nightcap over. How exciting!

The Dallas Mavericks are usually good for one. 19 of their 32 games have eclipsed the projected FanDuel total, and 17 of the 31 Golden State Warriors games this season have fallen on the same side. That's an organic matchup.

It's happened because Dallas' 116.8 defensive rating (eighth-worst in the NBA) is equal parts terrible and hopeless given their backcourt personnel. On the flip side, the Dubs have 114.5 defensive rating without Draymond Green (would be 14th in the NBA overall), and both of these clubs play at a top-13 pace in the NBA.

If we're expecting an offensive outburst, chances are Stephen Curry has had a hand in it. Not only is he exceptional, but the Mavericks have struggled with point guards all season in every department except scoring -- where Steph excels. They're allowing the third-most rebounds and eighth-most assists per game to opposing floor generals -- but also the sixth-fewest points per game.

Therefore, Curry's combo prop might be the best place to target in case his scoring output is reduced. numberFire has him projected for 28.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists at a median in this one. Combined, the 40.6 PRA tower over his line (38.5) on FanDuel at a pick 'em.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.