NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/6/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Best Bets
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers
Under 247.5 (-110)
These two teams last met in the In-Season Tournament's semifinals, and 234 total points were scored. That hasn't stopped this whopping total from being well into the 240s -- though it did move from 248 to 247.5 this morning.
These two teams are an interesting blend, but added altogether, I'd expect a total south of 240 points. The Indiana Pacers -- looking no further than Friday's 150 points -- are an offensive juggernaut, ranking third in pace factor and first in offensive rating (123.1). Yet, the Boston Celtics' elite defense (110.2 rating; second in the NBA) has held them to just 113.0 average points in two meetings. It's truly a strength-on-strength matchup that Boston has largely won.
On the flip side, the Celts' 120.8 offensive rating only trails Indiana, but they're the sixth-slowest team in the NBA. With both teams on a back-to-back, I'm not expecting a wild pace increase despite relatively nice conditions for one as both enter off blowout wins.
numberFire's model projects just 232.7 total points in this one at a median, assigning a 76.5% chance this game falls under such a lofty total.
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards
Wizards +9.5 (-110)
Jalen Brunson Over 38.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)
Here's another game where both teams are in a back-to-back situation, yet both are decently fresh due to blowouts on Friday.
I promised myself I'd stop betting the Washington Wizards, but this curious line was too intriguing. As you'd expect, 78% of the tickets and 86% of the handle at FanDuel Sportsbook has piled onto the New York Knicks as of Saturday morning, but this number hasn't budged.
The Knicks are likely overvalued in this spot -- OG Anunoby trade or not. They had just a -2.7 net rating in December, which wouldn't merit a spread this high when Washington's was -10.3, and the Wiz will be playing in their building tonight.
This also sounds silly coming off a blowout win yesterday, but New York is also a hard team to back to cover a spread this large. They play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league, and possessions are how you gap opponents.
numberFire's model expects Washington to cover 57.3% of the time in this spot. Here we go again.
Even if the Knicks win in an emphatic blowout, expect a mammoth night from Jalen Brunson in this one. However, Brunson's counting stats would correlate even better with Washington covering.
The Wizards just haven't covered points guards (or anyone at all) well in 2023-24. They've ceded the sixth-most points, second-most rebounds, and third-most assists per game to the point guard spot.
Brunson has posted at least 34 PRA in each of his last eight games, so he'll be in the ballpark, and this line is almost certainly baking in a blowout we don't believe will happen.
Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers
Lauri Markkanen Over 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
The Philadelphia 76ers are a 10.5-point favorite in this game, and I don't really feel like messing with a Utah Jazz team that just lost by 29 points in Boston. This prop will suffice.
One of the best edges in betting NBA props comes from targeting really solid defenses that, positionally, have a quiet weak point. That's Philly to small forwards in this space.
Their 108.3 defensive rating in December was best in the NBA, and even looking at points and combo props, they're not exactly a target, allowing the 5th-fewest points and 11th-fewest assists to the position.
For a reason unknown to me, they're a poor rebounding defense for wings, though. The Sixers cede the second-most rebounds per game to threes (8.3), and they'll be extra small with Tobias Harris (ankle) missing this one. Enter the Jazz's best player, Lauri Markkanen.
Lauri has averaged 9.2 rebounds per 36 minutes overall this season, and numberFire's projections have him pegged for 8.3 on Saturday. This is a tough defensive matchup -- but not for him on the glass.
Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets
Rockets +6.5 (-108)
Under 238 (-110)
Last month, the Houston Rockets played the Milwaukee Bucks to a nine-point game in their building. We certainly need to check out the 6.5-point spread here.
The Rockets are one of the league's best teams against the spread (ATS) this season overall (19-12-1) and at home (13-6-1). This wouldn't be the first time they're undervalued, and they've got a solid combination to slow down the Bucks' high-powered offense. They hold the league's sixth-slowest pace and had a 112.5 defensive rating in December (fifth-best in the NBA).
On the flip side, Milwaukee's shooting (63.8 TS% in December; best in the NBA) may or may not travel, and they're not as reliable for stops. Their 115.8 defensive rating was just 13th in the league.
The Deer are getting 73% of the tickets and 77% of the handle in this one at FanDuel, but the Rockets are well-positioned to cover. numberFire expects them to 57.9% of the time.
As far as the total, the previous matchup here had 247 total points in Wisconsin, but the Rockets' defensive rating is 106.9 at home this season, and it's 117.9 on the road. It's a big deal they're in H-Town, which is among the myriad of reasons that the model expects just 227.7 total points in this one at a median.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.