NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/27/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets

76ers +5.5 (-114)

For the first time since 2019, Joel Embiid will play in Denver as the Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets battle during the NBA's rivalry. With a chance to further separate in the NBA MVP odds race, I'll take Embiid and the 76ers to keep the game close.

Even without Embiid, the Sixers have covered five straight against the Nuggets, holding Nikola Jokic to 25 points or fewer in four of those contests. This matchup has strongly favored Philadelphia historically, and they've been the undervalued team of these two in betting circles all year. Philadelphia is 27-16 against the spread (ATS) compared to Denver's 19-25-2 mark, which is bottom five in the NBA.

They're also playing slightly better as both teams scuffle a bit. Philly has a -0.2 net rating in their past 10 games to Denver's -0.3. While neither mark is inspiring, it does help to get the better squad catching over a possession.

numberFire's model actually sees value on Philadelphia to win, but it expects them to cover a much stronger 67.2% of the time. We'll take the points.

Los Angeles Clippers at Boston Celtics

Under 232 (-110)

Arguably the two best teams in the NBA meet tonight in Boston, and they've dismantled recent opposition recently.

The Los Angeles Clippers have a +10.4 net rating in their past 10 contests (fourth-best in the NBA), and the Boston Celtics (+8.4) aren't far behind. Given recent battles with the Nuggets, Miami Heat, and Dallas Mavericks, you could argue the Celtics' mark is even more impressive.

On an equal competition level for each offense, I believe we can expect fewer points than these squads have drummed up recently. After all, L.A. and Boston both have top-10 defensive ratings in the same period, and their pace factor is even slower. Los Angeles plays at the NBA's sixth-slowest tempo, and the C's hold its eighth-slowest.

numberFire's model identifies this under as its single best value play today. Projecting just 220.1 total points at a median, it expects these two teams to fall short of this mark 71.3% of the time.

New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks

Pelicans +5.0 (-106)
Pelicans ML (+166)

The scorching Oklahoma City Thunder came, saw, and conquered the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, but don't write off NOLA bouncing back on the road this evening.

As the Milwaukee Bucks still await their new celebrity head coach, they're just not playing quality basketball recently. In addition to dropping last night's tilt to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee has a poor -0.2 net rating in their past 10 games. Even despite the rough showing against OKC, the Pels (+5.8) have the eighth-best net rating in the NBA in the same period.

Like Denver, the Bucks have been a quality fade all season. Their 17-28 ATS record is third-worst in the NBA, and Doc Rivers isn't even installed to change that yet.

nF expects New Orleans to cover 60.6% of the time compared to these 51.5% implied odds, and it expects them to win 43.7% of the time compared to these 37.6% implied odds. I'll fire a full unit at the spread while sprinkling the moneyline in case of an upset.

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

LeBron James Over 1.5 Threes (-130)
Stephen Curry Over 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-120)

LeBron James' storied history against the Golden State Warriors made this one an easy choice for the NBA's "Rivals Week" series, and he's got a matchup to show out.

Rather than take a stab on either side of Saturday's highest game total (234.5), let's drop to some props -- starting with King James. LeBron has just 56.5% implied odds to cash a pair of triples tonight, and I just don't get it.

LBJ has attempted 5.3 per game in January, making a modest 35.8% of those. James has cashed this line in four straight, and it's not like this matchup is special or prohibitive. Golden State has the NBA's worst defensive rating over each team's respective last 10 games (127.0), and they allow the fourth-most makes per game (3.0) to small forwards.

On the flip side, Stephen Curry and the Dubs are favored, and he should be able to shine, as well. Curry has a 31.0% usage rate in January, which is 10th among all qualifying starters. and he's always been a bit underrated on the glass, averaging 6.8 rebound chances this month, as well.

numberFire has James projected for 2.7 three-pointers in this one; almost certainly, his line should be 2.5. He could cash this on consecutive trips down the floor.

As for Curry, nF is expecting 28.1 points and 5.2 rebounds in a friendlier matchup than you might guess. The Los Angeles Lakers have actually scuffled to a 118.3 defensive rating in their last 10 contests.

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks

De'Aaron Fox Over 31.5 Points and Assists (-120)

Finally, I'm looking toward Sacramento Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox in a matchup that's ripe for him to exploit.

Sacramento will have a rest advantage after the Mavericks played yesterday. That you might have heard. Tired legs aside, this is a Dallas team that will give up points in bunches; they've posted the league's fourth-worst defensive rating in their last 10 (121.3) while playing at its seventh-fastest tempo.

Harrison Barnes just dropped 30-plus points in consecutive games, so a ton of Kings scorers have a chance to be a bit undervalued in prop markets based on recent trends. Fox appears that way. He's still posted a healthy 26.7% usage rate (team-best) in January with a gaudy 10.1 potential assists per game as a facilitator.

numberFire has Fox projected for 27.8 points and 7.0 assists in this plum spot. Expect him to bounce back after having missed this line in two of his past three games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.