NBA Best Bets and Player Props for Saturday 11/16/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props
Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets
Bucks Under 110.5 Points (-110)
Away Team Total Points
This bet combines two angles I've been riding since Damian Lillard (concussion) went down.
First, the Milwaukee Bucks' offense has -- expectedly -- struggled without him. They've posted just a 109.7 offensive rating (ORTG) in the pair of games without him. Thanks to a weak level of competition, their net rating (NRTG) is improved to +8.2 in this time.
Are they a better overall squad? It's possible, but the offense takes another huge blow tonight without Bobby Portis (elbow). The Charlotte Hornets are no pushover, either.
Continuing a trend from late last season, the Hornets are 16th in defensive rating (DRTG), and they play at the 9th-slowest pace in the NBA.
The return of Miles Bridges (knee) could seriously put the Bucks' spread and overall game total in significant jeopardy, but we just shouldn't expect them to score in this slight negative matchup. Even with Portis, they're at 105.0 points per game (PPG) in two contests without Dolla.
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
Lakers -6.5 (-112)
Yves Missi Over 16.5 Points and Rebounds (-106)
Spread Betting
Whatever points you might shave on this line waiting to confirm LeBron James and Anthony Davis will play in tonight's back-to-back affair are worth it. If they're active, the Los Angeles Lakers should cruise.
You could handily nominate the New Orleans Pelicans as the worst team in the NBA given their injury situation. NOLA has a -14.0 NRTG in games where Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, and Dejounte Murray have not played. The Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokic might be the only unit that could be more awful, which is how the Pels got in the win column last night.
The Lakers have never done well with sizable spreads in the LeBron era, but their +0.3 NRTG should be able to handle business here if both stars are active. Even if they're not, consider a play on a smaller number.
Yves Missi - Pts + Reb
There is value to be had in the prop market for the desolate New Orleans team, though.
Yves Missi has fully taken over the starting center job, earning at least 26 minutes in his last three games. Overall, Missi has posted 10.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so he's a double-double threat in a full role.
L.A.'s tendency to play bigs should help him stay on the floor. Our NBA DFS projections expect 10.3 points and 7.8 rebounds from the center in 27.0 minutes, so this line could look like a bargain if that ends up being the case.
Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings
Over 230.0 Points (-110)
Collin Sexton Over 19.5 Points and Assists (-115)
Total Points
It'd be understandable if the Sacramento Kings' defense wasn't at full force tonight.
Sacramento lost in overtime and surrendered 130 total points to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, and an improving Utah Jazz team might not be quite the break on that end that they'd hope. FanDuel has Lauri Markkanen (eye) props up with relative teammates, implying confidence that he plays on Saturday.
The Jazz have a 106.7 ORTG with these relevant starters all playing sans Walker Kessler (hip), which isn't ideal. However, they play at the league's eighth-fastest pace, and their 117.6 DRTG is second-worst in the NBA. They'll still contribute to the case for an over.
This line went from 228.5 to 230.0 this morning. I'd act quickly as bettors target the Kings' heavy legs.
Collin Sexton - Pts + Ast
Contributing to that total could Jazz shooting guard Collin Sexton.
Sexton has been a key lift after replacing Jordan Clarkson in the lineup, and overall this season, he's posted 20.7 points and 4.5 assists per 36 minutes. That playing time has started to come, earning at least 29 minutes in three straight games.
Across roughly 31.0 minutes, our projections expect 18.5 points and 5.8 assists from him in this uptempo contest.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.