NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200

With the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs just two races away, those behind the cutline have only a couple of opportunities to win their way in.

Unfortunately for them, it probably ain't gonna happen on Saturday.

This week's Xfinity Series race at Darlington is absolutely stacked with Cup Series talent. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Ross Chastain are all +1200 or shorter to win the Cup race on Sunday, and they're entered for double duty on Saturday, as well. Chastain's Xfinity equipment is poor, but the others are all in fast cars.

Those top three account for 69.7% of the win odds in my pre-practice simulations for this week. So if you need a win for the playoffs, godspeed.

Here's the full breakdown of what the sims are saying for the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 prior to practice in Darlington.

The tiering at the top may be odd, given Hamlin hasn't won an Xfinity Series race since 2017 and Larson won here in the spring. That is due to the equipment each driver will be in.

Hamlin is driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, which has eight wins this year with four different drivers. Larson is running a Hendrick car, and while that'll give him plenty of giddy-up, it's a part-time Xfinity organization that is yet to win the past two years despite a star-studded driver lineup. Larson's win in the spring came with Kaulig Racing.

That brings us to Busch. He'll run that same Kaulig car this weekend, and my model actually shows him as being a quality bet. Busch is 16.7% to win for me, up from 14.3% implied odds at +600 in FanDuel Sportsbook's Xfinity Series betting odds.

Busch is winless in three Xfinity races this year. He has won every year he has run an Xfinity Series race since 2012. But I think the equipment's good enough to get the job done. Larson proved that in the spring, and Busch is fully capable of duplicating the feat on Saturday.

Speaking of that Kaulig equipment, the non-Cup-regular who is showing value for me is Busch's teammate for the race, Chandler Smith. Smith is +5000 to win at FanDuel, and my model has him at 3.1%.

Smith has proven he can torch tracks with heavy tire falloff by winning at Richmond both last year in the Craftsman Truck Series and this year in the Xfinity Series. He was also fourth in Fontana this year and seventh in Homestead last year while driving for more of a mid-pack team. This track type seems to suit him, even if he hasn't come through at Darlington, specifically, yet.

Smith's a better bet in a top-five market where he doesn't need to top all the studs. The model puts him at 32.3% there (fair market value of +210). But, just in general, Kaulig seems undervalued across the board.

Looking for more NASCAR betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the NASCAR odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.