NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Contender Boats 300

With Riley Herbst's surprise win last week in Las Vegas, the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race is still wide open. No playoff drivers have locked in their spot, upping the stakes for Saturday's race in Homestead.

And my model for the race is high on a pair of drivers in the Round of 8.

The tough part is navigating around John Hunter Nemechek. FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds have Nemechek at +185 to win, which translates to 35.1% implied. My model has Nemechek at 26.1% to win, which is high -- but still leaves open win equity for others.

Here's a rundown of who snags the biggest pieces of that pie prior to practice and qualifying.

After Nemechek, my model is at odds with the market. Whereas Cole Custer has the second-shortest odds at +350, my model makes Austin Hill the non-Nemechek favorite. And I get why that's the case.

The Xfinity Series has run seven races on non-short tracks with at least moderate tire falloff. Hill's worst finish is seventh, and he has had a top-seven average running position in all but one.

That doesn't necessarily illustrate upside, but Hill did win Las Vegas earlier in the year. He was also runner-up in the second Darlington race, trailing just Denny Hamlin, who isn't in this field. Given the lack of Cup drivers in the field, I think Hill should be shorter than +900.

The other value is Chandler Smith, though his is a bit thinner. I have Smith at 10.1% to win, up from 8.3% implied at +1100 at FanDuel. Thus, if I'm picking just one outright, it'd be on Hill.

But Smith deserves at least a look. Smith is coming off a fourth-place finish in Las Vegas, and he could have won the first Vegas race, as well. Smith had a fourth-place finish in Fontana, another track that chews up tires.

Smith's best track in NASCAR is Richmond. It's very different from Homestead, but it's another spot where tire degradation is a key feature. I'd rather have the safety of betting Smith to finish top five (I'd have fair value as -101 there), but with just outrights at FanDuel, I do think he should have our attention.

Have a driver you want to bet for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see a full rundown of the market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.