NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Betting Picks

There's an interesting dynamic at play in Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race.

Obviously, we've got the four drivers set to compete for the driver's title: Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, Cole Custer, and Austin Hill. With massive motivation, Custer and Allgaier are the two favorites to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

But Aric Almirola is live in the owner's championship, too, for the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 car. And with no JGR drivers in the driver's championship hunt for either the Cup Series or Xfinity Series, there's lots of motivation for him, as well.

We'll circle back to Almirola later because my model adores him and views him as the favorite. But when you exclude Almirola, here's my model's view of the driver's championship race prior to practice and qualifying.

Xfinity Series Championship Prediction

Allgaier should have won at this track back in the spring, and he's generally great at Phoenix. But Custer did win here last year to claim the championship, and he has been strong on short, flat tracks. I'm happy to back him at anything +175 or longer in the championship.

(UPDATE: Allgaier wrecked in practice and will now start in the back. Here are sims that account for both that and practice times from Friday night.)

As for the race, here's what the sims say for that prior to practice and qualifying.

Xfinity Series at Phoenix Best Bets

• Aric Almirola (+350): I don't have a huge edge on Almirola (23.5% versus 22.2% implied), but with two wins at Martinsville and a runner-up in Richmond, it's clear he's mopping up at short, flat tracks this year. I think there's a shot the model is a smidge lower than it should be on him, so even +350 is long enough for me to turn his way.
• Daniel Dye (+50000): I'd much prefer a top-five market on Dye, but +50000 is pretty bizarre for an acceptable driver in a Kaulig Racing car. Longshots are longshots for a reason, so you'd want to scale your bet size way down, but sure, I'll take a swipe.

(UPDATE: In addition to Allgaier's crash, Almirola, Parker Kligerman, and Brandon Jones will also start in the back. The sims below account for that and Friday's practice times.)

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.