START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
NASCAR

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Betting Picks

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

Subscribe to our newsletter

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Betting Picks

There's an interesting dynamic at play in Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race.

Obviously, we've got the four drivers set to compete for the driver's title: Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, Cole Custer, and Austin Hill. With massive motivation, Custer and Allgaier are the two favorites to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

But Aric Almirola is live in the owner's championship, too, for the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 car. And with no JGR drivers in the driver's championship hunt for either the Cup Series or Xfinity Series, there's lots of motivation for him, as well.

We'll circle back to Almirola later because my model adores him and views him as the favorite. But when you exclude Almirola, here's my model's view of the driver's championship race prior to practice and qualifying.

Xfinity Series Championship Prediction

Driver
Championship Odds
Cole Custer39.6%
Justin Allgaier30.5%
Austin Hill15.5%
A.J. Allmendinger14.4%

Allgaier should have won at this track back in the spring, and he's generally great at Phoenix. But Custer did win here last year to claim the championship, and he has been strong on short, flat tracks. I'm happy to back him at anything +175 or longer in the championship.

As for the race, here's what the sims say for that.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 5
Aric Almirola23.5%48.3%62.3%
Chandler Smith16.2%37.4%52.5%
Cole Custer10.5%33.8%51.9%
Justin Allgaier8.8%27.5%44.4%
Sheldon Creed8.6%27.2%43.0%
Austin Hill3.9%14.2%24.9%
Riley Herbst3.5%14.0%24.4%

Xfinity Series at Phoenix Best Bets

  • Aric Almirola (+350): I don't have a huge edge on Almirola (23.5% versus 22.2% implied), but with two wins at Martinsville and a runner-up in Richmond, it's clear he's mopping up at short, flat tracks this year. I think there's a shot the model is a smidge lower than it should be on him, so even +350 is long enough for me to turn his way.
  • Daniel Dye (+50000): I'd much prefer a top-five market on Dye, but +50000 is pretty bizarre for an acceptable driver in a Kaulig Racing car. Longshots are longshots for a reason, so you'd want to scale your bet size way down, but sure, I'll take a swipe.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup