NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets: Mission 200 at The Glen

Before we get too far into this, an important disclaimer.

I think my model is too low on Shane Van Gisbergen this week.

I know why it's low. Saturday's Mission 200 at The Glen is a short one -- only 82 laps -- and when you factor in stage breaks, it doesn't leave drivers much wiggle room for imperfection.

Thus, if you slip in qualifying and start in the back, it'll torpedo your outlook. The model will gain tons of confidence once the starting grid is set, but until then, it's going to be lower than it should be on SVG.

FanDuel won't make that mistake. They have Van Gisbergen at +110 to win in their NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds. That should open up value elsewhere, but we'll want a pretty large edge in order to bite, accounting for the fact that Van Gisbergen's true win odds are likely higher than what the model is saying.

With those caveats aside, here's what my model has before we see the cars on track.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks for Watkins Glen

• Sheldon Creed (+2200): Creed is up to 11 runner-up finishes in Xfinity without claiming a win, but he has shown upside on road courses. He was runner-up in Sonoma this year and Watkins Glen last year, and he had a fourth-place average running position this year in Portland.
• Austin Hill (+3500): Hill had a chance to win this race last year before Sam Mayer wrecked him late. He has since finished second at COTA -- a race with Van Gisbergen and Ty Gibbs plus Kyle Larson in it -- and he had a sixth-place average running position in both Sonoma and Chicago.

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Which drivers stand out to you at Watkins Glen? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.