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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Toyota/Save Mart 350

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Toyota/Save Mart 350

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

NASCAR DFS Picks

Track Primer and General Lineup Strategy

Later in the season, there will be so much quality data on road courses that betting numbers and key priorities with be hilariously accurate.

Just one road course event into 2024, we're not quite there yet as NASCAR's best head to Wine Country. The annual June race at Sonoma Raceway is a favorite of drivers' wives and fans alike -- and has been since its introduction as one of NASCAR's two inaugural road courses in 1989. I agree that it's one of the best venues in the world for left-and-right-handed stock-car racing.

From a DFS perspective, we've got a dash of road course data from 2024, but this is also a track where course form is extremely relevant. Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex Jr. have held steady at the front of this venue for years, following in the footsteps of Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart from a prior era. For example, Truex and Kyle Busch -- both former Sonoma winners -- dominated the 2023 event. It's a track where familiarity definitely helps.

I'll mix those two things together to help build lineups since the recent lineup trends at this track are inconclusive. In 2023, no top-10 finisher started outside the top 20. In 2022, four drivers started outside the top 20 but finished in the top 10. This track is incredibly sensitive to strategy given its length that helps avoid going a lap down if pitting, and track position is everything.

The true separator in DFS lineups will come from that element of randomness, so while we can position ourselves with the fastest cars and best drivers possible, there will be an element of luck that decides which cars cycle to the front.

Driver Rankings

Below are my post-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, starting order, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order.

Starting Spot is where the drivers will roll off the grid. For potential lap leaders (i.e. high-salaried drivers), closer access to the front is better. For value plays, a lower starting spot gives a higher floor and access to 0.5 points on FanDuel for each position advanced in the order.

Practice Ranks are provided for both 5-lap and 10-lap average data. Those can typically be found at iFantasyRace.com for all times, including different intervals that may be more appropriate for the track type.

Jim's Sims are the win simulations run by FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes. This week's sims were updated after practice and qualifying. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in the sims or a top-15 finish this season were included in the rankings.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

  • Circuit of the Americas (Spring 2024) - 40%
  • Sonoma (Spring 2023) - 30%
  • Indianapolis (Fall 2023) - 15%
  • Charlotte ROVAL (Fall 2023) - 15%

Swaim's Rank
Driver
Salary
Starting Spot
Practice Rank (Single-Lap)
Practice Rank (5-Lap)
Jim's Sims
MLT Rank
1Martin Truex, Jr. $14,000 2110124.62%3
2Kyle Busch $9,000 291564.56%9
3Ty Gibbs $12,000 10248.48%4
4Chase Elliott $11,000 45339.62%8
5Kyle Larson $11,500 51415.18%14
6Chris Buescher $9,500 261893.42%7
7William Byron $13,000 62339.52%5

Potential Lap-Leaders

Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000)

Jim's simulations have no driver above 10.0% to win because the "car to beat" still isn't super clear through practice and qualifying. That's how Martin Truex Jr. emerged from qualifying as the no-doubt fantasy option in this tier.

Truex, a four-time Sonoma winner, is certainly on that list. He won last year with the event's fastest median lap time, and he's had a modest week of speed in practice. He posted the 10th-best time overall with the 12th-best average on the 5-lap charts.

In this realm, any doubts about his ability to pay off this premium salary were erased in time trials. Truex Jr. will start 21st, allowing for plenty of room for error even if he's not Sunday's dominant car.

There's enough doubt to pivot off MTJ in tournaments, but he'll be a staple in cash games and single-entry formats for a reason.

Ty Gibbs ($12,000)

I'm going to call my shot that Ty Gibbs wins Sunday's race.

Gibbs has been knocking on the door of his first career win for Joe Gibbs Racing, the team that has largely dominated the sport in 2024. He's posted eight top-10 finishes, including a third-place effort at the season's only road course race at Circuit of the Americas.

That's not really a fluke considering the 21-year-old won at four different road courses during his time in the Xfinity Series.

Amidst his breakout Cup Series campaign, Gibbs was one of two drivers to post a top-five time on the single-lap and 5-lap average charts. Ryan Blaney was the other, but Blaney's 12th-place finish at COTA isn't nearly as convincing that he'll now contend for a win in Sonoma.

Starting 10th, there's a tiny bit of place-differential upside from the #54, as well.

Others to Consider

  • Christopher Bell ($13,000)
  • Tyler Reddick ($12,500)

Mid-Range Threats

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Sonoma and Watkins Glen are NASCAR's two longest standing road course events, so more "regulars" tend to pop up than "ringers" at these events. Of course, Kyle Larson could be counted as both.

Larson won the 2021 event amidst a current streak of top-15 finishes that, alone, might undersell Larson's speed at these events. Between 2017 and 2022, Larson actually won five straight poles and led 94 combined laps. His team butchered the strategy in a few of those, but he's routinely quick.

That's why it was no surprise to see Larson atop the 5-lap average charts in practice, and he'll start fifth.

In the same salary tier, Larson and Chase Elliott profile as incredibly similar DFS plays. Larson should be less popular, but he was sixth in median time during last year's Sonoma race to Elliott's ninth. I think he's a smidge better at this particular venue.

Chris Buescher ($9,500)

You only get a handful of names deep ranking NASCAR's best on road courses before arriving on Chris Buescher.

Buescher has finished 11th or better in 12 of the last 13 races on road courses, including a pair of top fives in the last couple of trips to Sonoma. In addition to Buescher's driving prowess, the analytics-laden RFK Racing strategy room seems to nail the right time to pit every single road course.

C.B. entered the week with my seventh-best median blend on recent road courses, and he stamped that by sitting ninth on the 5-lap average charts. I was expecting him to start toward the front, but a mistake in qualifying will mean he starts 26th on the grid. I've got no concerns that the right strategy will lift Buescher toward the front of Sunday's field should he stay incident-free.

He and Kyle Busch were two of 2023's best performers at road courses, and a balanced build is extremely appealing to make sure to snag both.

Others to Consider

  • Chase Elliott ($11,000)
  • A.J. Allmendinger ($11,000)
  • Kyle Busch ($9,000)

Value Plays

Austin Cindric ($7,500)

No one was luckier among Cup Series drivers last week than Austin Cindric, who scored his second career win at Gateway after his teammate ran out of gas on the final lap.

At a completely different track type, that win alone doesn't mean much, but momentum never hurts -- especially when you'd have circled this sort of configuration as a spot where Cindric could actually contend.

Driver #2 has 6 top-10 finishes from 15 starts on road courses, which blows away his percentage on any other track type. That checks out when it was his calling card to get this ride after five Xfinity Series wins on left-and-right-handers.

Cindric ranks a modest 22nd in my blend of median laps this week, which is more appealing than his lackluster efforts in practice. I still want to buy his talent when teammates Ryan Blaney and polesitter Joey Logano have flashed speed this weekend.

From the 28th spot on the starting grid, few drivers below $8,000 have upside to pass as many cars as Cindric.

Brad Keselowski ($5,800)

I didn't expect to be here, either.

Brad Keselowski is a notoriously bad road course racer. He has just a single top-10 finish in his last 15 tries, but it came right here at Sonoma, which oddly seems to be his exception to the rule.

Kes has quietly finished 16th or better in five of his last six trips to this venue, and that's even more stunning given the lack of speed his RFK Fords have had at times during his tenure.

While top-10 speed won't be the case, he'll benefit from the same analytics department as Buescher to potentially score track position, and his record says that he can do a fine job of holding it. If Keselowski was salaried in his normal upper-mid-range, he'd be a total cross-off. Yet, at this value salary? He'll start 35th with a track record of scoring top-20 finishes despite being down on pace.

He played out this exact script a year ago, starting 25th to ultimately finish 16th. I think he can do it again -- and I certainly trust him to do so more than anyone else below $6,000.

Others to Consider

  • Alex Bowman ($7,800)
  • Chase Briscoe ($6,500)
  • Noah Gragson ($4,500)
  • Ryan Preece ($3,800)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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